Tag: Balance of Payments

  • JPMorgan warns of temporary PKR depreciation despite strong economic conditions

    JPMorgan warns of temporary PKR depreciation despite strong economic conditions

    Despite a robust Balance of Payments (BoP) position, Pakistan may experience a depreciation of the Pakistani rupee (PKR) in the near term due to the finalisation of outstanding dividend payments, according to a recent report from JPMorgan analysts.

    The report suggests that while the PKR is not perceived as overly expensive, analysts are anticipating more favourable foreign exchange (FX) entry points.

    They also noted that although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declared the removal of all FX restrictions, there could still be informal barriers affecting the repatriation of dividends.

    Should these informal restrictions be fully addressed at the commencement of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), it might lead to a moderate increase in the USD/PKR exchange rate over the coming months. However, analysts expect any such increase to be short-lived due to positive BoP conditions.

    The current environment is seen as a promising opportunity for bullish trades in T-bills and bonds, especially with the anticipated large-scale interest rate cuts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

    Since the beginning of the year, the PKR’s Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) has strengthened, reflecting improvements in the BoP, such as higher export revenues, stable remittance flows, and a gradual return of financial inflows.

    Although some concerns persist over foreign currency restrictions that might have artificially dampened FX volatility, the IMF’s latest report from May confirms the removal of remaining FX controls as of late January. This has resulted in a stable PKR with no significant premium in the informal or parallel market.

    Moreover, the import bill has increased only gradually, indicating limited pent-up demand. While the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) shows signs of potential overvaluation, it remains far from historical extremes and is expected to adjust downwards as inflation moderates.

    Overall, JPMorgan believes that any negative FX adjustments are likely to be minor, provided there is no significant worsening of the current account balance.

  • Pakistani rupee continues to gain ground against major currencies

    Pakistani rupee continues to gain ground against major currencies

    In Tuesday’s interbank session, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) demonstrated resilience against the US dollar (USD), settling the trade at PKR 280.25 per USD.

    This maintained a stable position compared to the previous session’s closing rate of PKR 280.24 per USD.

    Throughout the day, the currency experienced an intraday high (bid) of Rs280.6 and a low (ask) of Rs280.1.

    In the open market, Exchange Companies quoted the US dollar at Rs279 for buying and Rs281 for selling.

    Notably, the PKR celebrated its 9th consecutive weekly victory, appreciating by 1.04 rupees against the US dollar last week.

    This positive trend can be attributed to various factors, including increased liquidity in the foreign exchange market, tighter enforcement of regulations, a reduction in the money supply, a balance of payments surplus due to low import demand, and a moratorium on Chinese debt repayments.

    In comparison to major currencies, the PKR exhibited strength by gaining 1.17 rupees against the Euro, closing at Rs305.92 in contrast to the previous value of Rs307.09.

    The British Pound became more affordable by Rs2.15, concluding at Rs355.06 compared to Rs357.21 from the previous day.

    The Swiss franc experienced losses of 2.48 rupees, closing at Rs326.23 as opposed to Rs328.71 in the previous session.

    Against the Japanese Yen, the PKR gained 0.96 paisa, closing at Rs1.9181 versus Rs1.9277 a day ago.

    Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan saw a slight decline, losing 6 paisa and closing at Rs39.01 against Rs39.07 from the previous session.

  • World Bank projects only 1.7% growth for Pakistan in FY 2023-24 amid economic challenges

    World Bank projects only 1.7% growth for Pakistan in FY 2023-24 amid economic challenges

    The World Bank has issued a cautious outlook for Pakistan’s economy in the fiscal year 2023–24, projecting a modest growth rate of 1.7 per cent.

    The report, titled “South Asia Development Update Towards faster, cleaner growth,” highlights the fragile economic situation in Pakistan.

    Several factors have contributed to this fragility. The US dollar value of imports decreased by 26 per cent in August 2023 due to low demand and import controls, resulting in input shortages and a 15 per cent decline in industrial production by June 2023.

    Additionally, the economy shrank by 0.6 per cent in the fiscal year 2022–23 due to the impact of 2022 floods, high inflation, and balance of payments challenges.

    Import controls, initially aimed at reducing the trade deficit, hindered the supply of industrial materials and stifled growth.

    While these controls have been removed as part of an IMF lending programme, Pakistan still faces inflationary pressures, tight fiscal policies, and extensive flood damage. Foreign exchange reserves remain low, leaving the country vulnerable to external shocks.

    Pakistan is not alone in its economic struggles. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are all facing acute crises with ongoing balance-of-payments issues. These countries have begun implementing IMF-supported policies to address capital outflows and debt sustainability.

    Global factors, such as rising prices due to the end of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated the challenges faced by these nations, leading to increased current account deficits and currency depreciations. To combat this, import controls have been imposed.

    In Pakistan, consumer price inflation stood at 27 per cent in August, down from a peak of 38 per cent in May, thanks to a stabilised exchange rate and a decline in food prices caused by the previous year’s floods. To address high inflation, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 22 per cent in June.

    Pakistan and Sri Lanka are experiencing severe financial stresses, with low foreign reserve coverage and weak asset quality in both banking and non-banking sectors. The report also highlights the need for investment reforms in several South Asian countries to encourage growth.

    Restrictive import measures in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, although aimed at stabilising the external sector, have led to import shortages and economic downturns. Lowering these barriers to trade and capital flows could help boost long-term productivity.

    Lastly, despite adopting debt ceilings and deficit targets, many South Asian countries have high government debt-to-GDP ratios, with Pakistan experiencing fluctuations in government spending during election years.

    In summary, the World Bank’s report paints a cautious picture of Pakistan’s economic prospects, emphasising the need for sustained reforms and addressing various challenges to achieve stable and sustainable growth.

  • IMF reaches $3 billion stand-by arrangement with Pakistan, averting impending default

    IMF reaches $3 billion stand-by arrangement with Pakistan, averting impending default

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan have reached a staff-level agreement on a stand-by arrangement worth $3 billion, announced the lender. This decision has been eagerly anticipated by Pakistan, a South Asian nation that is on the verge of default.

    The approval of the IMF board, expected in July, is required to finalise the deal. After an eight-month delay, this agreement brings some relief to Pakistan, which is currently grappling with a severe balance of payments crisis and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

    The funding of $3 billion, which will be disbursed over a period of nine months, surpasses initial expectations. Pakistan had been awaiting the release of the remaining $2.5 billion from a $6.5 billion bailout package that was initially agreed upon in 2019, and which expired on Friday. As a result, the country’s stock and currency markets remained closed on that day.

    According to IMF official Nathan Porter, the new stand-by arrangement builds upon the 2019 programme. Porter acknowledged the significant challenges faced by Pakistan’s economy in recent times, including devastating floods last year and rising commodity prices following the war in Ukraine.

    He stated, “Despite the authorities’ efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute.” Porter further emphasised that the new arrangement would serve as a policy anchor and a framework for financial assistance from both multilateral and bilateral partners in the foreseeable future.

    Porter also highlighted the acute liquidity conditions in the power sector, characterised by mounting arrears and frequent power outages. Reforming the energy sector, which has accumulated a debt of nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($12.58 billion), has been a pivotal aspect of the discussions between Pakistan and the IMF.

  • IMF receives assurance of $1 billion from UAE to support Pakistan’s economy

    IMF receives assurance of $1 billion from UAE to support Pakistan’s economy

    In a significant development towards reviving the stalled bailout programme, the authorities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have pledged to provide $1 billion in bilateral support to Pakistan, according to Finance Minister Ishaq Dar.

    Dar tweeted, “UAE authorities have confirmed to the IMF for their bilateral support of $1 billion to Pakistan.” He also stated that the State Bank of Pakistan is currently in the process of completing the necessary documentation to receive the deposit from the UAE authorities.

    Pakistan was required to provide assurance that its balance of payments deficit is fully financed for the remaining period of the IMF programme, which has been stalled since November last year. Last month, the IMF’s Director of Strategic Communications, Julie Kozack, emphasised that “timely financial assistance from external partners will be critical to support the authorities’ policy efforts and ensure the successful completion of the review [with Pakistan].” She added, “Ensuring that there is sufficient financing to support the authorities is the paramount priority. A Staff Level Agreement (SLA) will follow once the few remaining points are closed.”

    Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia also pledged to provide a $2 billion loan to Pakistan, according to Pakistan’s Minister of State for Finance Aisha Ghaus Pasha. The country’s economic situation has been further exacerbated by months of political and economic turmoil, crippling floods last year and record inflation. Pakistan has been grappling with a debt crisis and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to less than four weeks of imports.

    In an effort to ease the situation, China has agreed to refinance $2 billion, of which $1.7 billion has already been credited to Pakistan’s central bank. China also rolled over a $2 billion loan last month, providing relief during Pakistan’s acute balance of payments crisis. However, talks with the IMF for a delayed $1.1 billion loan tranche, part of the bailout agreed in 2019, have been ongoing.

  • Pakistan’s nuclear program not linked to loan negotiations, says IMF representative

    Pakistan’s nuclear program not linked to loan negotiations, says IMF representative

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has refuted allegations that it imposed any conditions on the revival of a loan program that had been suspended for several months despite ongoing discussions between the two parties.

    Pakistan has been in discussions with the IMF since early February to negotiate the terms of the deal, which includes the adoption of policies aimed at addressing its fiscal deficit ahead of the annual budget in June. The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package that the IMF approved in 2019, and which experts believe is critical for Pakistan to avoid defaulting on its external debt obligations.

    The delay in reaching a staff-level agreement with the IMF had prompted veteran politicians, Senator Raza Rabbani and former foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, to express concerns about whether the delay was due to the country’s strategic assets, including its nuclear and missile programs. They have called on the government to clarify this issue.

    In response, IMF resident representative in Islamabad, Esther Perez Ruiz, released a statement on Sunday denying any involvement in Pakistan’s nuclear program, stating that there was “absolutely no truth” to the rumors that program discussions with the authorities may have covered the issue.

    Ruiz further clarified that the discussions had focused exclusively on economic policies aimed at resolving Pakistan’s economic and balance of payments problems, in line with the Fund’s mandate for promoting macroeconomic and financial stability.

  • IMF chief wants the poor people of Pakistan to be protected

    IMF chief wants the poor people of Pakistan to be protected

    In a recent interview with an international broadcaster, Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called for Pakistan to distribute subsidies more fairly, redirecting resources from the wealthy to those in need. Georgieva urged the country to increase tax revenues from those who are making good money, both in the public and private sectors, to contribute to the economy.

    The IMF is keen for Pakistan to function effectively as a country and avoid dangerous levels of debt, which could lead to the need for debt restructuring. Georgieva expressed concern for the people of Pakistan, who have been devastated by floods affecting one-third of the population.

    The IMF has recommended that Pakistan broaden its narrow tax base, with only 3.5 million return filers out of a population of over 200 million. The lender has also called for the removal of untargeted subsidies and the redirection of resources towards the poor, including the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), for which the government has increased the allocation from Rs360 billion to Rs400 billion to protect the poorest from inflationary pressures.

    The IMF’s review mission has made it clear that Pakistan must undertake tax revenues from all those who possess income to contribute to the national kitty.

    Pakistan faces a looming balance of payment (BoP) crisis, with external debt servicing of $27 billion required in the next financial year. The ongoing IMF programme of $6.5 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is due to expire on June 30, 2023, and there is no possibility of any further extension in the ongoing EFF arrangement.

    The IMF could help Islamabad overcome the crisis by ensuring that the country can pay its debt obligations without plunging into default. The revival of the IMF programme will be a pre-requisite step for seeking any debt restructuring, so the government is currently focusing on it.

  • Pakistan’s forex reserves increase by 9%, cross $3 billion mark

    Pakistan’s forex reserves increase by 9%, cross $3 billion mark

    After declining for three weeks in a row and losing a cumulative $1,685 million during that period, the foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have rebounded, according to a statement from the central bank.

    As of February 10, SBP’s foreign currency reserves totaled $3,192.9 million, which is up $276 million from the previous week. This increase represents a gain of over 9 per cent and has broken the streak of declining reserves.

    However, even with this increase, the amount is still only enough to cover one month of imports. Meanwhile, the net forex reserves held by commercial banks are $5,509.3 million, which is $2,316.4 billion more than SBP, bringing the total liquid foreign reserves of the country to $8,702.2 million. The statement did not provide a specific reason for the increase in SBP-held reserves.

    Pakistan’s economy is in dire straits due to a balance-of-payments crisis, political chaos, and deteriorating security. The government has banned all but essential food and medicine imports until it receives a crucial loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could unlock other sources of funding for the country.

    Inflation has risen sharply, the rupee has declined, and the country is struggling to afford imports, which has caused a severe decline in its industry. Pakistan is no longer issuing letters of credit, except for essential food and medicine, since January, which has led to a backlog of raw material imports that the country can no longer afford.

    According to Geo, the rupee devaluation and the logjam have resulted in a significant decline in manufacturing, including textiles and steel, and building projects.

    While the IMF cash injection alone will not be enough to rescue Pakistan, the government hopes that it will boost confidence and pave the way for other friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE to offer additional loans.