Tag: Central Bank Data

  • Factors behind the continuous decline in car financing in Pakistan

    Factors behind the continuous decline in car financing in Pakistan

    In January 2024, the automobile financing sector in Pakistan witnessed a significant downturn, as car financing recorded a notable decrease to Rs246.26 billion.

    This marks a 25.82 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decrease and a 1.98 per cent month-on-month (MoM) decrease compared to Rs331.98 billion in January 2023 and Rs251.25 billion in December 2023, respectively. The latest data from the central bank provides these insights.

    This decline in automobile financing extends to the nineteenth consecutive month, with a total decrease of Rs114.29 billion over the past 19 months.

    Several factors contribute to this decline, including higher interest rates, increased car prices, regulatory restrictions on acquiring loans, and elevated taxes on the import of automobiles and their parts.

    According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, consumer financing for house building amounted to Rs207.62 billion by the end of January 2024.

    This reflects a 3.44 per cent YoY decrease compared to Rs215 billion in the same month last year. Looking at monthly changes, financing for house building saw a marginal 0.26 per cent MoM decrease compared to the previous month’s Rs208.15 billion.

    Financing for personal use stood at Rs243.1 billion, showing a 4.47 per cent YoY decrease and a 0.54 per cent MoM decrease.

    Consequently, the overall credit disbursed to consumers declined to Rs813.96 billion during the review month, registering a fall of 9.04 per cent YoY and 0.52 per cent MoM.

    The outstanding credit to the private sector also experienced a decline, decreasing by 0.76 per cent YoY to Rs8.35 trillion in January 2024. On a monthly basis, this represents a 2.21 per cent decrease compared to the credit of Rs8.54 trillion in December 2023.

    Analysing credit distribution to the private sector, loans to the manufacturing sector amounted to Rs4.81 trillion in the review period, showing a slight 0.33 per cent YoY increase. However, on a monthly basis, there was an 0.89 per cent MoM decline, as December recorded loans to this sector at Rs4.85 trillion.

    Borrowing from the construction sector stood at Rs190.15 billion in January 2024, experiencing a 0.97 per cent YoY decrease and a 5.05 per cent MoM decrease compared to the previous month.

    Looking ahead, the data indicates that loans to the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors rose to Rs397.27 billion in the month under review, marking a significant 16.95 per cent YoY increase.

    However, on a sequential basis, loans to this sector recorded a fall of 4.82 per cent MoM.

  • State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves soar to $8.27 billion, highest level since July 2023

    State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves soar to $8.27 billion, highest level since July 2023

    In the latest report, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced a significant rise of $243.1 million, or 3.03 per cent week-on-week, in foreign exchange reserves, reaching $8.27 billion as of January 19, 2024. 

    This boost is credited to the reception of the second installment of SDR 528 million, equivalent to $705.6 million, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

    After settling government external debt repayments, the net increase for the week stands at $243.1 million, marking the highest level for SBP’s reserves since July 14, 2023.

    Furthermore, the total reserves of the country witnessed an increase of $196.3 million, or 1.49 per cent, totaling $13.34 billion during the same week. 

    In contrast, commercial banks experienced a decline in reserves, dropping by $46.8 million, or 0.91 per cent, to $5.07 billion week-on-week.

    It is noteworthy that in the current fiscal year, total liquid foreign reserves have shown a substantial growth of $4.18 billion, reflecting a 45.65 per cent increase. 

    Similarly, the ongoing calendar year has seen a rise of $0.12 billion, marking a 0.91 per cent increase in the nation’s reserves.

  • Pakistan sees 18th straight month of decline in auto financing

    Pakistan sees 18th straight month of decline in auto financing

    In December 2023, automobile financing in Pakistan recorded a significant decline, reaching Rs251.25 billion, marking a 25.55 per cent year-on-year drop and a 2.26 per cent month-on-month decrease. 

    This contrasts with Rs333.747 billion in December 2022 and Rs257.06 billion in November 2023, as revealed by the latest central bank data.

    Notably, this marks the eighteenth consecutive monthly decrease in automobile financing, attributed to factors such as elevated interest rates, a surge in car prices, regulatory constraints on loan acquisition, and increased taxes on automobile imports and components.

    According to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), consumer financing for house building reached Rs208.15 billion by the end of December 2023, reflecting a 3.17 per cent year-on-year decrease. 

    On a monthly basis, house building financing showed a marginal increase compared to the previous month’s Rs206.92 billion.

    Simultaneously, financing for personal use amounted to Rs244.41 billion, experiencing a 3.84 per cent year-on-year decline and a 0.64 per cent month-on-month decrease, indicating a challenging trend in the lending landscape for various purposes.

  • Remittances to Pakistan decline by 19.3% to $2 billion in first month of fiscal year

    Remittances to Pakistan decline by 19.3% to $2 billion in first month of fiscal year

    Pakistan has experienced a notable decline in remittances during the first month of the current fiscal year, as data released by the central bank reveals a year-on-year drop of 19.3 per cent, amounting to $2 billion. This concerning trend was further accentuated by a month-on-month reduction of 7.3 per cent.

    In the month of July, remittance inflows from Pakistanis residing abroad amounted to $2.2 billion. The distribution of these remittances showed that Saudi Arabia held the top spot with a contribution of $486.7 million, followed by the United Arab Emirates with $315.1 million. The United Kingdom and the United States of America followed closely with $305.7 million and $238.1 million, respectively.

    Economic analysts anticipated this decline in remittances for the month of July, given the post-Eid ul Adha period. The reduction was expected, as Pakistani expatriates tend to increase their cash transfers back home during festive seasons. Interestingly, it seems that some of these remittance inflows have been diverted to the grey market due to more favourable exchange rates for dollars.

    Samiullah Tariq, the head of research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company, shed light on this shift: “In my view, as this was the month after Eid ul Adha, flows were relatively subdued. Some Pakistanis are opting for unofficial channels to transfer money.” The continuous devaluation of the Pakistani currency is also impacting investment sentiment among overseas Pakistanis, discouraging them from contributing more significantly to the economy.

    The recent release of these remittance statistics coincides with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval of a $3 billion bailout package for Pakistan. The nation’s economy had been teetering on the edge of default due to mounting debt obligations. Governor Jameel Ahmad of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reassured that the SBP remains committed to upholding its obligations, including maintaining a controlled difference between the interbank and open market exchange rates, as specified in the agreement with the IMF.

    Fahad Rauf, the head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, voiced his concern over the decline in remittances: “The extent to which remittances have declined is indeed worrying. Unofficial channels offering higher rates have played a role in this scenario.” He also highlighted the SBP’s efforts to attract more remittances through proposed changes in incentive schemes, including a 50 per cent increase in the reimbursement rate for Saudi Riyal conversions.

    The SBP’s latest monetary policy statement forecasts the current account deficit for fiscal year 2024 to range between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent of the gross domestic product. This projection takes into account both evolving domestic and global economic conditions. The SBP remains optimistic about the prospects of multilateral and bilateral inflows following the IMF’s stand-by arrangement, which is expected to bolster external buffers and address short-term external financing requirements.

    As the nation navigates through these challenges, the market-determined exchange rate will continue to play a pivotal role as the first line of defence against external shocks, further supporting the buildup of reserves. With a cautious eye on global commodity prices and a moderate domestic economic recovery, Pakistan aims to manage its imports and strengthen its economic stability.