Tag: CPI based inflation

  • Pakistan’s headline inflation expected to drop below 14%

    Pakistan’s headline inflation expected to drop below 14%

    Inflation in Pakistan is projected to decelerate significantly in May 2024, with the year-on-year (YoY) rate expected to drop to approximately 13.9 per cent. This sharp slowdown is attributed to a notable decline in monthly prices, aided by a favorable base effect.

    Monthly inflation is forecasted to decrease by 1.4 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of decline. This figure is significantly lower than the average monthly increase of 1.35 per cent observed over the past 12 months.

    As a result, the average yearly inflation for the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024 (11MFY24) is anticipated to be 25.1 per cent YoY, compared to 29 per cent YoY in the same period of the previous fiscal year (FY23).

    The primary driver behind the decline in monthly inflation is a substantial 440 basis points (bps) drop in the Food Index. This reduction is mainly due to lower prices of essential food items such as onions, tomatoes, chicken, and wheat. Additionally, the Transport Index is expected to decrease due to falling fuel prices.

    Looking ahead, if consumer prices increase by an average of 0.5 per cent per month, the annual inflation rate is projected to decline to about 7.4 per cent by the end of December 2024. With a 1 per cent monthly increase, the annual inflation rate would fall to approximately 11.7 per cent.

    If the monthly increase matches the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent, the annual inflation rate will stand at 14.8 per cent by December 2024.

    The following chart outlines the projected yearly inflation trajectory based on monthly inflation rates of 0.5 per cent, 1 per cent, and the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent.

  • Pakistan’s inflation eases slightly to 28.3% in January 2024

    Pakistan’s inflation eases slightly to 28.3% in January 2024

    The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that the country’s headline inflation for January stood at 28.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis, marking a slight decrease from the December figure of 29.7 per cent. The month-on-month reading recorded a 1.8 per cent increase.

    This latest data brings the average inflation for the period of July to January to 28.73 per cent, up from 25.40 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Despite this surge, the inflation rate aligns with the government’s expectations.

    The Ministry of Finance, in its ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report released on Wednesday, projected a CPI-based inflation rate of 27.5-28.5 per cent for January 2024. The report attributed the inflationary pressure to elevated prices of perishables and vegetables, along with increased utility costs for electricity and gas.

    A contributing factor to the rising prices has been a surge in onion export orders following the Indian ban, straining local supply and causing domestic prices to escalate.

    Severe weather disruptions led to supply shortages of tomatoes, resulting in price hikes, while reduced chicken supply, especially from controlled sheds facing higher input costs, contributed to increased chicken prices.

    JS Global, in a report from last week, anticipated that inflation would remain elevated, particularly in the food segment. The report predicted a 1.8 per cent month-on-month uptick in food prices, resulting in an overall January 2024 YoY CPI estimate of 27.9 per cent.

    The brokerage house noted that the CPI inflation in the coming months is expected to remain on the lower side amid the decline in local fuel prices and the high base effect of last year.

    Breaking down the inflation figures, urban areas recorded a year-on-year CPI inflation of 30.2 per cent in January 2024, slightly lower than the previous month’s 30.9 per cent and higher than January 2023’s 24.4 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation increased by 1.8 per cent in January 2024.

    In rural areas, year-on-year CPI inflation for January 2024 was 25.7 per cent, down from the previous month’s 27.9 per cent but higher than January 2023’s 32.3 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased by 1.9 per cent in January 2024.

    The PBS data indicates a nuanced inflationary landscape in Pakistan, with both urban and rural areas experiencing fluctuations in prices across various commodities. The government’s focus on addressing these challenges remains critical as it navigates the economic impact of inflation on citizens and businesses.

  • CPI inflation in Pakistan increases to 26.6% in October

    CPI inflation in Pakistan increases to 26.6% in October

    In Pakistan, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose sharply in October, surging by 26.6 per cent year over year (YoY). On the other hand, it climbed 4.7 per cent month over month (MoM), indicating a decline of 1.2 per cent from September.

    “CPI inflation General, increased to 26.6 per cent on YoY basis in Oct 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.2 per cent in the previous month and 9.2 per cent in Oct 2021,” said the PBS.

    According to APP, inflation reached a YoY high of 27.3 per cent in August 2022, which was over a 47-year high in the inflation measurement in June 2022 after it had crossed the 20 per cent threshold.

    The inflation reading matches what the market had predicted.

    According to the PBS, year-over-year CPI inflation in urban areas reached 24.6 per cent in October 2022 as opposed to an increase of 21.2 per cent in the previous month and 9.6 per cent in October 2021.

    In October 2022, it grew to 4.5 per cent month over month, up from 1.7 per cent in October 2021 and a decline of 2.1 per cent the month before.

    In addition, year-over-year CPI inflation in rural regions reached 29.5 per cent in October 2022 as opposed to increases of 26.1 per cent in the previous month and 8.7 per cent in October 2021.

    When compared to the previous month’s gain of 0.2 per cent and the increase of 2.2 per cent in October 2021, it increased by 5.0 per cent in October 2022 on a monthly basis.

    Rising inflation has become a major worry for Pakistan’s economy, which is already experiencing a loss of foreign exchange reserves.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 15 per cent in October at the recommendation of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), believing that the current monetary policy stance achieves the right mix between controlling inflation and sustaining growth in the wake of the floods.

    “On the one hand, inflation could be higher and more persistent due to the supply shock to food prices, and it is important to ensure that this additional impetus does not spill over into broader prices in the economy. On the other, growth prospects have weakened, which should reduce demand-side pressures and suppress underlying inflation,” MPC said then.

    However, the government on Monday night announced that the price of petroleum products will remain the same for the ensuing 15 days.

    According to PBS data, the inflation rates that were highest in October were in the transportation, food, housing, and restaurant and hotel groupings.

    Items that witnessed an increase in prices

    Food

    The food commodities that witnessed increase in prices on a YoY basis included tomatoes (219.34 per cent), onions (165.66 per cent), gram whole (69.80 per cent), pulse gram (65.08 per cent), besan (62.25 per cent), mustard oil (61.14 per cent), pulse masoor (61.07 per cent), fresh vegetables (58.87 per cent), cooking oil (58.06 per cent), pulse mash (55.33 per cent), vegetable ghee (52.5 per cent), pulse moong (49.84 per cent), wheat (45.77 per cent), tea (41.89 per cent), rice (40.76 per cent), wheat flour (37.38 per cent), milk fresh (29.61 per cent), meat (25.34 per cent), potatoes (20.65 per cent), fish (15.4 per cent), chicken (12.22 per cent) and gur (0.39 per cent).

    Non-food items

    The non-food commodities that witnessed increase on a YoY basis included motor fuel (64.81 per cent), stationery (44.5 per cent), washing soap/detergents/match box (41.49 per cent), transport services (41.27 per cent), motor vehicles (34.29 per cent), construction input items (32.03 per cent), motor vehicle accessories (31.31 per cent), electricity charges (24.95 per cent), cotton cloth (24.16 per cent), household equipment (21.4 per cent), solid fuel (20.88 per cent) and construction wage rates (12.72 per cent).