Tag: economic activity

  • Political instability, IMF loan conditions threaten Pakistan’s economic growth

    Political instability, IMF loan conditions threaten Pakistan’s economic growth

    In January, Pakistan experienced a boost in economic activity, thanks to the financial aid provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as reported by Bloomberg Economics Tracker.

    However, there are three key developments that may impact future economic conditions.

    Firstly, the aftermath of the inconclusive February 8 election has resulted in persistent political instability, presenting a potential obstacle to new investments.

    Secondly, there is a likelihood of more stringent conditions associated with additional IMF loans. Lastly, there is an increasing probability that the State Bank of Pakistan will delay rate cuts.

    Despite the challenges, January saw a positive trend with a 0.9 per cent increase in economic activity compared to December, breaking a four-month contraction streak.

    The injection of IMF loans and eased trade restrictions contributed to this improvement, enabling increased purchases of essential import supplies.

    Looking ahead, the unresolved election outcome may prolong political uncertainty, affecting potential investments.

    The recent hike in gas prices on February 15 will likely drive inflation higher, further reducing the chances of a March rate cut.

    Considering these developments, Bloomberg Economics is considering revising its growth outlook.

    While Bloomberg currently predicts 2.1 per cent GDP growth through June 2024 (up from a 0.2 per cent contraction in the previous fiscal year), the consensus estimate is 2.5 per cent, and the IMF forecasts 2 per cent.

    It’s essential to note that the Bloomberg Economics monthly tracker assesses inflation-adjusted indicators of activity.

  • Overseas remittances to Pakistan soar to $2.4 billion

    Overseas remittances to Pakistan soar to $2.4 billion

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) revealed that the inflow of overseas workers’ remittances reached $2.4 billion in December 2023, marking a notable 5.4 per cent increase from the previous month’s $2.25 billion, according to data released on Wednesday.

    On a yearly basis, December’s remittances exhibited a robust growth of 13.4 per cent, totaling $2.1 billion compared to the same period in the previous year.

    These remittances continue to play a pivotal role in sustaining Pakistan’s external account, fostering economic activity, and supporting the disposable incomes of remittance-dependent households.

    Despite the December upswing, the cumulative workers’ remittances for July-December FY24 recorded a decline of 6.8 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY), amounting to $13.43 billion.

    This decrease amounted to $982.8 million compared to the $14.42 billion reported in the corresponding period of FY23.

    Saudi Arabia

    Overseas Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia led the remittance surge in December, contributing $577.6 million. This figure marked a 6 per cent increase from the previous month and over 9 per cent higher than the same month in the previous year.

    United Arab Emirates (UAE)

    Remittances from the UAE witnessed a marginal monthly increase of nearly 2 per cent, rising from $411.8 million in November to $419.2 million in December. Year-on-year, these remittances surged by almost 27 per cent.

    United Kingdom (UK)

    December saw an uptick in remittances from the United Kingdom, totaling $368 million—a 7.5 per cent increase compared to November 2023.

    European Union (EU)

    Remittances from the European Union demonstrated substantial growth, rising by 19 per cent YoY and 6 per cent on a monthly basis, reaching $284.9 million in December 2023.

    United States (US)

    Overseas Pakistanis in the United States sent $263.9 million in December 2023, reflecting an 8.5 per cent YoY increase.

    This breakdown underscores the significance of remittances from various regions, contributing to Pakistan’s economic resilience amid global challenges. 

    The upward trajectory in December bodes well for the nation’s economic prospects as it navigates through the fiscal year.

  • US sees strongest job growth in eight months, raising rate hike possibility

    US sees strongest job growth in eight months, raising rate hike possibility

    In September, the United States experienced a significant increase in employment, marking the most substantial growth in eight months. 

    This surge in hiring was widespread, indicating a persistent strength in the labour market. This development potentially provides the Federal Reserve with the rationale to consider raising interest rates once again, although it’s worth noting that wage growth is currently decelerating.

    The Labour Department’s latest employment report, released on Friday, revealed a nonfarm payroll increase that surpassed expectations, along with substantial upward revisions to job counts for July and August. These findings solidify the belief that economic activity gained momentum in the third quarter.

    The continued resilience of the labour market and the broader economy, even after 18 months of the US central bank’s efforts to temper demand by raising rates, suggests that monetary policy may remain restrictive for an extended period. 

    Recent data also indicates an increase in job openings in August, coupled with consistently low first-time applications for state unemployment benefits in September.