Tag: Economic Analysis

  • Pakistanis catch a break as weekly inflation hits 18-week low

    Pakistanis catch a break as weekly inflation hits 18-week low

    Short-term inflation in Pakistan dipped to 29.06 per cent year-on-year by the week ending March 21, stepping down from its prolonged stint above 30 per cent for the past 18 weeks, as per recent official data.

    The pullback in weekly inflation, tracked by the Sensitive Price Index (SPI), was primarily attributed to a drop in the prices of key staples like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes. The SPI noted a 1.13 per cent week-on-week decrease as of March 21, down from 32.89 per cent recorded in the previous week.

    This follows an unbroken 11-week stretch of inflation topping 40 per cent, starting from 29 per cent noted on November 8, 2023. The surge was largely fueled by upticks in gas prices, electricity tariffs, and essential kitchen item costs.

    Weekly inflation peaked at a record 48.35 per cent year-on-year in early May 2023, before cooling off to as low as 24.4 per cent in late August 2023, only to surge past 40 per cent again by the week ending November 16, 2023.

    Among the notable declines in prices on a week-on-week basis were tomatoes (36.73 per cent), onions (19.58 per cent), potatoes (4.02 per cent), garlic (2.87 per cent), pulse mash (1.25 per cent), wheat flour (1.02 per cent), sugar (0.95 per cent), pulse masoor (0.86 per cent), and diesel (0.60 per cent).

    Conversely, significant increases were seen in the prices of LPG (1.49 per cent), shirting (0.74 per cent), beef (0.53 per cent), rice basmati broken (0.48 per cent), mutton (0.42 per cent), mustard oil (0.40 per cent), rice irri 6/9 (0.25 per cent), powdered milk (0.14 per cent), and georgette (0.03 per cent) compared to the previous week.

    On an annual basis, notable price hikes were observed in gas charges for Q1 (570 per cent), chilli powder (86.05 per cent), gents sponge chappal (58.05 per cent), garlic (57.41 per cent), onions (54.65 per cent), gents sandal (53.37 per cent), gur (39.86 per cent), sugar (35.01 per cent), salt powder (33.29 per cent), energy saver (29.83 per cent), and pulse mash (27.31 per cent).

    In contrast, certain items witnessed declines, with cooking oil 5-litre dropping by 21.35 per cent, followed by vegetable ghee 2.5 kg (18.48 per cent), vegetable ghee 1 kg (18.44 per cent), mustard oil (13.90 per cent), bananas (13.52 per cent), diesel (2.47 per cent), and cigarettes (0.06 per cent).

    The short-term inflation, gauged through the SPI, stood at 323.50, compared to 327.21 in the preceding week and 250.66 a year ago. Comprising 51 items collected from 50 markets in 17 cities, the SPI is calculated weekly to monitor the prices of essential commodities and services at shorter intervals. Data indicates that prices of nine items increased, 17 items decreased, and 25 items remained stable compared to the previous week.

  • Factors behind the continuous decline in car financing in Pakistan

    Factors behind the continuous decline in car financing in Pakistan

    In January 2024, the automobile financing sector in Pakistan witnessed a significant downturn, as car financing recorded a notable decrease to Rs246.26 billion.

    This marks a 25.82 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decrease and a 1.98 per cent month-on-month (MoM) decrease compared to Rs331.98 billion in January 2023 and Rs251.25 billion in December 2023, respectively. The latest data from the central bank provides these insights.

    This decline in automobile financing extends to the nineteenth consecutive month, with a total decrease of Rs114.29 billion over the past 19 months.

    Several factors contribute to this decline, including higher interest rates, increased car prices, regulatory restrictions on acquiring loans, and elevated taxes on the import of automobiles and their parts.

    According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, consumer financing for house building amounted to Rs207.62 billion by the end of January 2024.

    This reflects a 3.44 per cent YoY decrease compared to Rs215 billion in the same month last year. Looking at monthly changes, financing for house building saw a marginal 0.26 per cent MoM decrease compared to the previous month’s Rs208.15 billion.

    Financing for personal use stood at Rs243.1 billion, showing a 4.47 per cent YoY decrease and a 0.54 per cent MoM decrease.

    Consequently, the overall credit disbursed to consumers declined to Rs813.96 billion during the review month, registering a fall of 9.04 per cent YoY and 0.52 per cent MoM.

    The outstanding credit to the private sector also experienced a decline, decreasing by 0.76 per cent YoY to Rs8.35 trillion in January 2024. On a monthly basis, this represents a 2.21 per cent decrease compared to the credit of Rs8.54 trillion in December 2023.

    Analysing credit distribution to the private sector, loans to the manufacturing sector amounted to Rs4.81 trillion in the review period, showing a slight 0.33 per cent YoY increase. However, on a monthly basis, there was an 0.89 per cent MoM decline, as December recorded loans to this sector at Rs4.85 trillion.

    Borrowing from the construction sector stood at Rs190.15 billion in January 2024, experiencing a 0.97 per cent YoY decrease and a 5.05 per cent MoM decrease compared to the previous month.

    Looking ahead, the data indicates that loans to the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors rose to Rs397.27 billion in the month under review, marking a significant 16.95 per cent YoY increase.

    However, on a sequential basis, loans to this sector recorded a fall of 4.82 per cent MoM.

  • Yearly basis: Weekly inflation stays above 34%

    Yearly basis: Weekly inflation stays above 34%

    In the week concluding on February 15, 2024, the Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group exhibited a slight decrease of 0.78 per cent week-over-week (WoW).

    However, compared to the same period last year, the SPI surged by 34.25 per cent YoY, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    The combined index, standing at 315.18, marked a slight dip from 317.65 recorded on February 8, 2024. A year ago, on February 16, 2023, the index was substantially lower at 234.77.

    Analysing the data further, out of the 51 items monitored, the average price of 22 items increased, 11 items witnessed a decrease, and 18 items remained stable.

    Notably, PBS did not release SPI data last week, following a 0.28 per cent WoW decline in the preceding week.

    During the week under review, significant decreases were noted in the prices of eggs (28.82 per cent), chicken (4.23 per cent), onions (3.48 per cent), LPG (2.85 per cent), and gur (1.13 per cent).

    Conversely, notable increases were observed in the prices of bananas (4.64 per cent), potatoes (2.80 per cent), match boxes (1.31 per cent), long cloth (1.29 per cent), and cooked daal (0.77 per cent).

    Analysing the SPI percentage change by income groups, a uniform decline of -0.82 per cent to -0.72 per cent was witnessed across all quantiles.

    The lowest-income group experienced a weekly decline of 0.78 per cent, while the highest-income group recorded a decrease of 0.77 per cent.

    On a yearly basis, SPI increased across all quantiles, ranging between 28.68 per cent and 38.54 per cent. The lowest-income group saw a 28.68 per cent increase, while the highest-income group recorded a 32.08 per cent rise.

    The average price of Sona urea fell to Rs4,513 per 50 kg bag, marking a 0.50 per cent decrease from last week and a significant 54.84 per cent increase from the previous year.

    Meanwhile, the average cement price recorded at Rs1,234 per 50 kg bag marked a 2.05 per cent increase from the previous week and a 14.27 per cent hike from the prices recorded last year.

    In a volatile market environment, these fluctuations in the SPI indicate the dynamic nature of the economic landscape, impacting consumers across various income groups.

  • Gold price plummets by Rs3,500 to Rs210,800 per tola in Pakistan

    Gold price plummets by Rs3,500 to Rs210,800 per tola in Pakistan

    In a significant market development, the price of 24-karat gold in the local bullion market took a sharp nosedive, plummeting by Rs3,500 to Rs210,800 per tola. 

    This dramatic downturn comes in the wake of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which has sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay anticipated rate cuts.

    According to the Karachi Sarafa Association, the price of 10-gramme 24-karat gold saw a notable decline, settling at Rs180,727, marking a loss of Rs3,001 compared to the previous session. Similarly, the price of 10-gramme 22-karat gold fell to Rs165,666.

    The downward trend extended to silver prices as well, with 24-karat silver being sold at Rs2,580 per tola, showing a decrease of Rs20 day-over-day. The 10-gramme silver price also experienced a dip, dropping by Rs17.15 to Rs2,211.93.

    On the global stage, international spot gold slipped below $2,000 for the first time in two months, experiencing a 1.34 per cent decline or $27. 

    This shift follows the release of American Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which disappointed investors after a recent downturn in price pressures had fostered expectations for rate cuts this year, as reported by Bloomberg.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious stance, echoed by other Fed speakers, gained credence in light of the CPI figures. 

    Swap contracts referencing Fed policy meetings, which previously indicated a high likelihood of a rate cut in May and substantial easing by year-end, were significantly affected. 

    The odds of a May cut dropped to about 32 per cent from 64 per cent prior to the inflation data, with expectations for fewer than 90 basis points of easing this year.

  • Gold price remains steady at Rs214,300 per tola with no fluctuations

    Gold price remains steady at Rs214,300 per tola with no fluctuations

    The cost of 24-karat gold in the local bullion market remained unchanged at Rs214,300 per tola on Tuesday, according to the Karachi Sarafa Association. 

    Similarly, the prices for both 10-gramme 24-karat and 22-karat gold stood at Rs183,728 and Rs168,416, respectively. 

    Last week, a decline in international prices led to a Rs1,700 drop in the domestic market for 24-karat gold per tola.

    Silver prices also maintained stability in the domestic market, with 24-karat silver selling at Rs2,600 per tola and Rs2,229.08 per 10 grammes. Meanwhile, on the global stage, international spot gold traded near $2,025.7 as of 12:50 pm, marking a 0.35 per cent increase for the day.

    Investors are closely watching for the release of crucial US inflation data later today, which may provide further insight into the timing of the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate adjustments.

  • Gold price in Pakistan falls by Rs1,200 per tola, breaking winning streak

    Gold price in Pakistan falls by Rs1,200 per tola, breaking winning streak

    In a reversal from its recent gains, gold prices in Pakistan opened the new week in the red, witnessing a decline of Rs1,200 per tola for 24-karat gold, bringing it to Rs214,800 on Monday.

    The Karachi Sarafa Association reported a decrease of Rs1,029 in the 10-gramme 24-karat gold, settling at  184,156. The 10-gramme 22-karat gold closed at Rs168,810.

    This comes after a notable surge last week, where gold prices rose by Rs2,100 per tola due to an upswing in international prices. Contrary to gold, silver prices remained steady in the domestic market, with 24-karat silver selling at Rs2,600 per tola and Rs2,229.08 per 10-gramme.

    The international context reveals a 0.8 per cent drop in spot gold during today’s early trade session, amounting to $16.18.

    This decline is attributed to a rise in US Treasury yields and the dollar, fueled by diminished expectations of a rate cut. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the idea of lowering interest rates in the spring, expressing confidence in inflation returning to the 2 per cent target, according to Reuters.

    Adding to the pressure on domestic gold prices is the Pakistani rupee’s continued success against the US dollar. As the PKR maintains its positive trajectory, it further contributes to the challenges faced by the domestic gold market.

  • Gold price soars to Rs216,300 per tola with Rs800 increase in Pakistan

    Gold price soars to Rs216,300 per tola with Rs800 increase in Pakistan

    In alignment with the surge in the global market, gold rates in Pakistan experienced an upward trajectory on Thursday.

    The precious metal, often viewed as a barometer for economic sentiment, reached Rs216,300 per tola, marking an increase of Rs800 over the course of the day.

    As reported by the All Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the 10-gramme gold bar was traded at Rs185,442 following a notable rise of Rs686.

    This shift in prices follows a contrasting trend from the preceding day, when gold prices in Pakistan had seen a decline of Rs600 per tola.

    The international gold rate exhibited a similar positive movement on Thursday, reaching $2,060 per ounce with a $20 premium.

    This uptick of $5 in the global market, as highlighted by APGJSA, contributed to the buoyancy in the local gold prices.

    Conversely, silver rates remained steadfast at Rs2,600 per tola, maintaining stability in the precious metals market.

    This fluctuation in gold prices can be attributed to the intricate interplay of various global economic factors.

    Analysts suggest that investors and traders should closely monitor these trends to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving market.

  • Gold price surges by Rs700 per tola, reaching Rs216,100 in domestic market

    Gold price surges by Rs700 per tola, reaching Rs216,100 in domestic market

    The domestic bullion market experienced an upswing on Tuesday as the price of 24-karat gold surged by Rs700 per tola, reaching Rs216,100.

    This price hike was reported by the Karachi Sarafa Association, which also noted a Rs600 increase in the 10-gramme 24-karat gold, now standing at Rs185,271. The 10-gramme 22-karat gold was priced at Rs169,832.

    In contrast, silver prices remained stable in the domestic market, with 24-karat silver being sold at Rs2,600 per tola and Rs2,229.08 per 10-gramme.

    The sudden spike in domestic gold prices can be attributed to the rise in international prices. Currently, international spot gold is trading at $2,039.598, marking a 0.24 per cent increase compared to the previous session’s closing.

    Last week, we witnessed the second consecutive weekly loss in the international gold market due to diminishing expectations of a rate cut. However, the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a surge in the demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, signalling a bullish trend.

    Despite the persistent pressure on domestic gold caused by the continuous strengthening of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR), the market dynamics shifted due to the sudden upturn in international prices.

    The impact of the PKR’s strength was outweighed by the growing appeal of gold in the wake of geopolitical uncertainties.

    Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the evolving situation both domestically and internationally as they assess the potential impacts on precious metal markets.

    The fluctuating trends in gold prices highlight the intricate relationship between global events and their influence on the financial landscape.

  • Gold glitters again: Domestic bullion rebounds with Rs1,500 per tola increase

    Gold glitters again: Domestic bullion rebounds with Rs1,500 per tola increase

    In a notable reversal, domestic bullion has rebounded from a four-week decline, initiating the current week with a positive trajectory. The price of 24-karat gold has seen a robust surge, ascending by Rs1,500 per tola and reaching Rs215,400. 

    The Karachi Sarafa Association reported a noteworthy uptick in the 10-gramme 24-karat gold, now standing at Rs184,671, reflecting a gain of Rs1,286 from the preceding day. Meanwhile, the 10-gramme 22-karat gold is reported at Rs169,282.

    Contrary to the gold market’s dynamic, silver prices have maintained stability domestically. The 24-karat silver is being traded at Rs2,600 per tola and Rs2,229.08 per 10-gramme.

    This positive shift in the domestic gold market is attributed to the rise in international prices. At present, the international spot gold is trading at $2,032.5 [12:42 p.m. PST], exhibiting a 0.7 per cent increase from the closing of the previous session. 

    Notably, the global market witnessed a second consecutive weekly loss last week, driven by diminishing expectations of a rate cut.

    However, the current surge in gold prices is fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting an increased demand for safe-haven assets. 

    This geopolitical development signals a bullish trend for gold, counteracting the pressure on domestic gold caused by the continuous strengthening of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR). 

    The sudden upturn in international prices has effectively outweighed the market impact of the PKR’s persistent strength.

  • Gold price in Pakistan increases by Rs400, reaching Rs214,200 per tola

    Gold price in Pakistan increases by Rs400, reaching Rs214,200 per tola

    In a noteworthy market development, gold prices in Pakistan witnessed a modest recovery this Friday.

    The per-tola price of 24-karat gold surged by Rs400, reaching Rs214,200, according to the latest data from the Karachi Sarafa Association.

    The 10-gramme 24-karat gold also reflected this upward trend, standing at Rs183,642, indicating an increase of Rs342 compared to the previous day. Additionally, the 10-gramme 22-karat gold was reported at Rs168,338.

    Contrastingly, silver prices remained steady in the domestic market. The per-tola price of 24-karat silver held at Rs2,600, while the 10-gramme price stood at  Rs2,229.08.

    On the global stage, the international spot gold market exhibited stability, with the current trading price at $2,025.9 [12:49 pm PST].

    This value remains unchanged in comparison to the closing figure from the preceding session. 

    Market analysts continue to monitor these fluctuations, as economic factors and global dynamics contribute to the ever-evolving landscape of precious metal prices.

    Gold prices, Karachi Sarafa Association, 24-karat gold, 22-karat gold, Rs168,338, silver prices, stable market, 10-gram, global spot gold, market analysis, precious metals, economic trends, gold price in Pakistan,