Tag: Economic Forecast

  • Monetary policy committee maintains status quo: SBP keeps policy rate at 22% to tackle elevated inflation

    Monetary policy committee maintains status quo: SBP keeps policy rate at 22% to tackle elevated inflation

    In a decision announced on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has opted to maintain the status quo, retaining the key policy rate of 22 per cent. 

    SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad highlighted the persistent elevation of inflation, disclosing a revised forecast for the fiscal year 2023–24 ranging from 23 per cent to 25 per cent.

    Market analysts, anticipating the decision, noted that the sustained high inflation rate was a contributing factor to the MPC’s decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged.

  • Monthly inflation expected to ease in the coming months

    Monthly inflation expected to ease in the coming months

    In January, a discerning shift towards disinflation is anticipated, as headline inflation is poised to soften to 27.2 per cent year-over-year (YoY), attributed to a favourable base effect.

    This decline from the previous month’s 29.7 per cent is primarily influenced by a higher base in the preceding year, while monthly pressures on consumer prices are expected to persist.

    Despite the overall yearly decrease, monthly inflation is projected to rise by 0.93 per cent month-over-month (MoM), contrasting with the 12-month average of 2.2 per cent MoM. 

    Consequently, the average yearly inflation for the first seven months of fiscal year 2024 is estimated at 28.57 per cent YoY, up from 25.40 per cent YoY in the same period last fiscal year.

    The surge in monthly inflation is predominantly fueled by a rise in the food and housing index. Food inflation is expected to increase by 1.76 per cent MoM, driven by inflated prices of essential commodities such as onions, chicken, tomatoes, eggs, and pulses. 

    Meanwhile, the housing index is projected to experience a 1.54 per cent MoM increase, primarily due to quarterly rent adjustments. In contrast, the transport index is anticipated to decrease by 2.69 per cent MoM, attributed to relief in fuel prices.

    Looking ahead, a 0.5 per cent MoM inflation rate in February could result in an annual headline inflation of around 22 per cent, with a gradual decline below 16 per cent by June 2024.

    Even a 1 per cent MoM inflation rate, significantly lower than the 12-month average, is expected to maintain real interest rates from turning positive until March 2024, as illustrated in the accompanying chart depicting various monthly inflation scenarios.

    Starting in January, the disinflationary trend is expected to accelerate due to the favourable base effect, the lagged impact of monetary tightening, and other administrative measures.

    However, potential risks include unforeseen climate events, volatility in global commodity prices—especially oil—and external account pressures.

    Rising global oil prices amid geopolitical tensions pose a threat to the inflation outlook, and an additional gas price adjustment, as suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), may further intensify pressure on consumer prices.

  • Inflation may drop to 20-22% in the coming year: SBP report

    Inflation may drop to 20-22% in the coming year: SBP report

    In the Governor’s Annual Report 2022–23, released ahead of the upcoming national election, the Chief of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conveyed that the country’s inflation is expected to decrease to approximately 20–22 per cent in fiscal year 2024.

    The SBP remains committed to making decisions aimed at preventing persistently high inflation. Notably, Pakistan’s economy fell significantly short of its fiscal and primary surplus targets in FY23, resulting in a contraction of the real GDP to 0.2 per cent.

    During FY23, Pakistan, with a population of 241 million, witnessed its highest-ever inflation, leading to historic lows in its currency value. The situation was mitigated by a $3 billion IMF bailout in July, preventing an imminent sovereign default.

    Governor Jameel Ahmed highlighted in the report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 29.2 per cent in FY23, aligning with the upper bound of the bank’s revised projections.

    The SBP remains committed to anchoring inflation expectations to achieve its medium-term target of 5-7 per cent by the end of FY25.

    Fiscal and policy measures implemented before and after the bailout are contributing to stabilising Pakistan’s $350 billion economy as the country approaches the national election scheduled for February 8.

    Despite missing fiscal and primary surplus targets by a considerable margin, the SBP emphasises its dedication to curbing inflation.

    Simultaneously, the finance ministry anticipates a moderate inflation outlook for the remaining months of FY24, even with the upward revision of administered prices, particularly gas prices.

    According to the ministry’s monthly economic report, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for December is projected to be in the range of 27.5-28.5 per cent.

    Looking ahead, the ministry foresees a further easing of inflation to 24–25 per cent in January 2024.

  • December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    In December, inflation is expected to surpass the 30 per cent threshold, driven by the recent increase in gas prices and the persisting adverse base effect, which continues to impact the consumer price index (CPI).

    The headline inflation for December is projected to settle at approximately 30.11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 1.18 per cent month-on-month (MoM), in contrast to the previous month’s figures of 29.2 per cent YoY and 2.7 per cent MoM.

    This monthly inflation rate is significantly lower than the 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM.

    Consequently, the average yearly inflation for the first six months of FY24 is estimated to be 28.87 per cent YoY, compared to 25.05 per cent YoY in the same period of FY23.

    The surge in inflation can be attributed to the adverse base effect and the notable increase in gas prices, which were not fully realised in the previous month.

    Conversely, food inflation is expected to exhibit a marginal decrease of 0.29 per cent MoM, driven primarily by the decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes, chicken, and oil.

    Additionally, the transport index is forecast to undergo a 4 per cent MoM decrease, mainly due to the relief in petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices.

    Post-December, inflation is anticipated to decline at a relatively faster pace, supported by the favorable base effect, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and other administrative measures.

    The December spike is attributed to the lingering effects of the overdue gas price hike. Notably, unforeseen climate events, volatility in global commodity prices, especially oil, and external account pressures pose significant upside risks to the inflation outlook.

    Global oil prices are on the rise amid challenges in Red Sea shipping, potentially threatening the inflation outlook.

    Moreover, the successful completion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, coupled with additional loan programmes, remains crucial.

    The outstanding amount of $1.8 billion under the stand-by arrangement (SBA) is yet to be released.

    The accompanying chart illustrates the yearly inflation trajectory based on different MoM CPI scenarios. At 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, yearly inflation is projected to fall below the 22 per cent policy rate by February–March 2024.

    By the end of FY24, with 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, it is expected to decrease to 15.29 per cent and 19.37 per cent, respectively, a significant change from the previous month’s forecasts of 12.9 per cent and 17.5 per cent.

    Considering the last 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM, the real interest rate is anticipated to remain in negative territory by the end of FY24.

  • Govt expected to hike petrol price on Thursday

    Govt expected to hike petrol price on Thursday

    In the final fortnight of November 2023, the per litre price of petrol in Pakistan is projected to experience an increase of Rs3.18, while high-speed diesel (HSD) is anticipated to undergo a reduction of Rs8.30 per litre on Thursday, November 16.

    Sources have indicated that the pricing trajectory of petroleum products is poised for a mixed trend in the latter half of the current month of November 2023.

    The price of petrol is forecasted to rise from Rs283.38 per litre to Rs286.56 per litre, marking an uptick of Rs3.18 per litre.

    Correspondingly, the cost of HSD/diesel is expected to decrease by Rs8.30 per litre, moving from Rs303.18 per litre to Rs 294.88 per litre.

    Additionally, the price of kerosene oil is projected to witness a decline of Rs5.61 per litre, transitioning from Rs211.03 per litre to Rs205.42 per litre.

    Furthermore, the price of light diesel oil (LDO) is set to experience a reduction of Rs8.33 per litre, shifting from Rs189.46 per litre to Rs181.13 per litre.

    These price adjustments are calculated based on current government taxes and the prevailing US dollar exchange rate, as per informed sources.

    According to Profit, the government may uphold the price of petrol due to outstanding forex adjustments, while a reduction of Rs10 per litre is expected for diesel (HSD).

    Notably, starting from 1st November 2023, the government has imposed a petroleum levy (PL) of Rs60 per litre on petrol and diesel, alongside receiving an Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) of Rs7.71 per litre on petrol and Rs0.60 per litre on diesel.

    Additionally, the Dealers’ Margin (inclusive of extra margin) on petrol and diesel presently stands at Rs8.64 per litre.

    Similarly, the margin for Oil Marketing Companies is fixed at Rs7.87 per litre.

    Furthermore, the Distributors’ Margin (inclusive of extra margin) on diesel is currently set at Rs8.12 per litre, and on petrol, it is Rs7.87 per litre, effective from 1st November 2023.

    On 1st November, the government maintained the prices of petrol and diesel at Rs283.38 per litre and Rs303.18 per litre, respectively.

    Simultaneously, the price of kerosene oil witnessed a reduction of Rs3.82 per litre, establishing the new price at Rs211.03 per litre.

    The price of LDO was also decreased by Rs3.40 per litre, fixing the new price of LDO at Rs189.46 per litre for the first half of November 2023.

  • State Bank of Pakistan set to announce policy rate decision today

    State Bank of Pakistan set to announce policy rate decision today

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will soon unveil its latest monetary policy for the upcoming two months.

    In an official statement, the central bank declared that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of SBP will convene on Monday, October 30, 2023, to determine the monetary policy. SBP will then issue the Monetary Policy Statement via a press release on the same day.

    Currently, the State Bank’s policy rate stands at 22 per cent. Since October 2021, the central bank has increased its policy rate by a cumulative 1,500 basis points in an effort to combat rising inflation and bolster the external balance. This rate has remained unchanged since July 2023.

    The forthcoming policy rate announcement is poised to exert a substantial influence on Pakistan’s industries and inflation rate.

    In the most recent meeting held in July, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) resolved to maintain the interest rate at 22 per cent.

    The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank meticulously assessed economic data and the prevailing inflation situation before opting to retain the interest rate. It’s worth noting that substantial progress has been achieved in the current account, thanks to government initiatives.

    This decision comes against the backdrop of Pakistan contending with a high inflation rate, currently pegged at 29.65 per cent.

  • Pakistan’s economy to recover, but challenges remain: World Bank

    Pakistan’s economy to recover, but challenges remain: World Bank

    Pakistan’s economic outlook, as per the World Bank’s ‘Pakistan Development Update,’ is challenging. The report projects a gradual recovery in real GDP growth, expecting it to reach 1.7 per cent in FY24 and 2.4 per cent in FY25. However, it warns that this recovery is contingent on implementing IMF measures, securing external financing, and maintaining fiscal discipline.

    The report highlights the dire poverty situation in Pakistan, with an estimated 39.4 per cent of the population living below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold in FY23, compared to 34.2 per cent in FY22. Factors contributing to this include economic slowdown, floods in 2022, import restrictions, political uncertainty, rising global commodity prices, and reduced investor confidence.

    The fiscal deficit remains a concern. While some easing of import restrictions may widen the current account deficit, a weaker currency and higher domestic energy prices could sustain inflation. The report emphasizes the importance of comprehensive fiscal reforms, including reducing tax exemptions, broadening the tax base, improving public expenditure quality, reforming the energy sector, and managing public debt more effectively.

    The World Bank stresses that addressing these challenges is crucial for long-term recovery and recommends strengthening institutions and systems to achieve fiscal and debt sustainability. The report echoes concerns about external shocks, political instability, and debt servicing challenges, underlining the need for prudent economic management and reforms.

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts a modest GDP growth recovery to 1.9 per cent in FY24, following a contraction of 0.3 per cent in FY23, with persistent price pressures. Overall, Pakistan faces a complex economic landscape that demands immediate attention to fiscal reform, poverty alleviation, and resilience to external shocks.

  • Economists predict ‘Barbenheimer,’ Taylor Swift, and Beyoncé will inject billions into US economy

    Economists predict ‘Barbenheimer,’ Taylor Swift, and Beyoncé will inject billions into US economy

    Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and the “Barbenheimer” fever are making a substantial positive impact on the United States economy. According to Bloomberg Economics, the tours of these mega stars and the success of their blockbuster films are projected to contribute a significant sum of $8.5 billion (S$11.5 billion) to the US economy in the third quarter.

    The concerts alone, with nearly 50 shows scheduled, could boost the US gross domestic product (GDP) by $5.4 billion. Additionally, the films “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” are anticipated to result in approximately $3.1 billion in consumer spending and export revenue from international ticket sales.

    This combined effect is expected to lead to a 0.7 per cent increase in annualized real personal consumption expenditures and a 0.5 per cent rise in GDP during the July-through-September period. Economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger have revised their growth forecasts for this period, attributing the adjustment in part to these notable gains. This economic outlook further reinforces the ongoing strengthening of the American economy, which has been evident in recent months.

    The current economic landscape shows signs of easing inflation and a stable labor market, which are propelling consumer spending. This positive scenario is causing some economists to postpone their predictions of an impending recession, while others are reconsidering their projections altogether.

    Nonetheless, the analysts at Bloomberg argue that the benefits generated by the movies and tours are temporary in nature. They highlight the absence of Beyoncé and Swift performances in the US during the last quarter of the year and describe the Barbenheimer event as a rare occurrence. Moreover, the US economy remains vulnerable to a drop in demand, and challenges persist in the housing market due to low supply and rising mortgage rates.

    The Bloomberg economists emphasise that a significant portion of the current economic vigor is linked to short-term factors. In their assessment, These factors create a facade of robust consumption, when in reality, it is losing momentum. Importantly, their evaluation only accounts for ticket sales for “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” up until Wednesday, and they do not include the net-export effects of the four concerts Swift is performing in Mexico City this week.