Tag: Economic Recovery

  • Pakistan Stock Exchange achieves record high, crossing 58,000 points

    Pakistan Stock Exchange achieves record high, crossing 58,000 points

    A positive shift in market sentiment fueled the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) upward trajectory as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surpassed the historic 58,000 level for the first time in Wednesday’s trading session.

    At 12:45 pm, the benchmark index reached 58,203.85, marking a noteworthy increase of 832.27 points, or 1.45 per cent. 

    Widespread buying, particularly in index-heavy sectors such as automobile assemblers, cement, chemicals, commercial banks, fertiliser, and oil and gas exploration companies, contributed to this surge, with OMCs also registering gains.

    The benchmark index climbed by 294 points, or 0.51%, the previous day, settling at 57,371.59.

    This sustained bullish trend reflects improved economic indicators in the country and the interim government’s successful negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first review, unlocking $700 million in funding.

    Analysts expect that, following the review, Pakistan will attract additional inflows from both multilateral and bilateral partners.

    Commenting on this rapid yet anticipated recovery at PSX, Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, stated, “PSX is experiencing one of the fastest but not unexpected recoveries.”

  • IMF and Pakistan seal agreement on $3 billion SBA, await board approval

    IMF and Pakistan seal agreement on $3 billion SBA, await board approval

    In a significant development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared on Wednesday that its team and Pakistani authorities have successfully concluded the initial review of the $3 billion, nine-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).

    This staff-level agreement awaits the approval of the IMF Executive Board.

    Upon endorsement, approximately US$700 million (SDR 528 million) will be accessible, contributing to a cumulative disbursement of nearly US$1.9 billion under the programme.

    A delegation from the IMF, led by Nathan Porter, conducted discussions in Islamabad from November 2–15, 2023, focusing on the inaugural review of Pakistan’s economic programme supported by the IMF SBA.

    The nascent recovery, supported by international partners and enhanced confidence indicators, is attributed to the stabilizing policies outlined in the SBA.

    The disciplined implementation of the FY24 budget, ongoing adjustments in energy prices, and increased inflows into the foreign exchange (FX) market have alleviated fiscal and external pressures.

    The IMF anticipates a decline in inflation in the upcoming months, driven by diminishing supply constraints and modest demand.

    Nevertheless, Pakistan remains exposed to significant external risks, including heightened geopolitical tensions, escalating commodity prices, and potential tightening in global financial conditions.

    It is imperative to persist in efforts to enhance resilience in the face of these challenges, according to the international lender

  • Pakistan expects positive outcome in talks with IMF, eyes $700 million disbursement

    Pakistan expects positive outcome in talks with IMF, eyes $700 million disbursement

    Pakistan is optimistic about the successful completion of the initial review under the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

    According to reports, the ongoing negotiations, now in their final phase, are anticipated to culminate positively, marking a crucial milestone. 

    Commencing on Monday, policy-level discussions between Pakistani authorities and the IMF are scheduled to persist until November 15, spearheaded by Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar.  

    The Pakistani delegation, including key figures such as State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad and Federal Board of Revenue Chairman Malik Amjed Zubair Tiwan, along with representatives from the finance and energy ministries, has been actively engaged in the deliberations. Nathan Porter leads the IMF team in this dialogue. 

    During the latest session, the IMF delegation articulated their recommendations and requirements, while technical-level talks involved the sharing of pertinent economic data with the international lender’s team, according to The News.  

    Sources within the finance ministry assert that Pakistan has diligently fulfilled all stipulated conditions set forth by the IMF. 

    It is anticipated that the staff-level agreement will be finalised during the ongoing policy-level talks, paving the way for the disbursement of approximately $700 million to Pakistan upon the successful completion of the first review. 

    Earlier this month, the IMF review mission commended the Pakistani government for its commendable progress towards economic recovery, as stated by the finance ministry.  

    The IMF’s $3 billion loan programme, sanctioned in July, played a pivotal role in averting a sovereign debt default. The initial tranche of $1.2 billion was disbursed in July, with the remaining amount contingent on subsequent reviews. 

    Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar has unequivocally ruled out any requests to the IMF for an extension of the SBA programme’s timeframe or an increase in its size. 

  • Pakistan on track to secure second IMF tranche successfully: PM Kakar

    Pakistan on track to secure second IMF tranche successfully: PM Kakar

    Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar expressed optimism about Pakistan’s upcoming review with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), set for this month.

    The IMF, led by Nathan Porter, will visit Pakistan from November 2–16 to discuss the first review of the country’s current $3 billion stand-by arrangement (SBA).

    Pakistan is navigating a challenging economic recovery path under a caretaker government following an IMF loan programme approval in July, which prevented a sovereign debt default. The country received the first $1.2 billion tranche from the IMF in July.

    Kakar stated that Pakistan has successfully achieved its targets, including revenue goals, and is confident about the negotiations for the second tranche.

    Regarding inflation, the interim prime minister acknowledged a decrease in inflation rates, attributing it to the Pakistani rupee’s appreciation against the dollar and a drop in petroleum prices. 

    The prime minister also encouraged journalists to analyse the impact of the Pakistani rupee’s strength on circular debt and highlighted that stringent measures against smuggling through Afghan transit trade have boosted local industry productivity.

  • IMF team to visit Pakistan next week for crucial $3 billion SBA assessment

    IMF team to visit Pakistan next week for crucial $3 billion SBA assessment

    A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is scheduled to visit Pakistan on November 2 to initiate discussions pertaining to the inaugural assessment of the nation’s ongoing $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA). 

    Pakistan is currently navigating a complex journey towards economic recovery, operating under an interim government. 

    This endeavour follows an IMF loan programme sanctioned in July, which was instrumental in averting a potential sovereign debt default. As part of this programme, Pakistan received an initial disbursement of $1.2 billion from the IMF in July.

    Esther Perez Ruiz, the IMF’s resident representative in Pakistan, has disclosed that a delegation led by Mr Nathan Porter from the International Monetary Fund will embark on a mission to Pakistan commencing on November 2, with the primary objective being the evaluation of the current Stand-By Arrangement.

    Additionally, the finance ministry has exerted significant efforts to maintain the budget deficit within the predefined limits agreed upon with the IMF. They issued warnings to the provinces, urging them to curtail their expenditures. Recent provisional estimates indicate that both Punjab and Sindh have made notable strides in this direction.

    However, a notable challenge in the quest to contain the overall fiscal deficit lies in the escalating debt servicing requirements. These obligations are projected to surpass Rs8.3 trillion and reach Rs8.5 trillion for the current fiscal year 2023–24. This surge is attributed to the central bank’s heightened policy rate, a departure from the initial target of Rs7.3 trillion.

  • Pakistan’s economy to recover, but challenges remain: World Bank

    Pakistan’s economy to recover, but challenges remain: World Bank

    Pakistan’s economic outlook, as per the World Bank’s ‘Pakistan Development Update,’ is challenging. The report projects a gradual recovery in real GDP growth, expecting it to reach 1.7 per cent in FY24 and 2.4 per cent in FY25. However, it warns that this recovery is contingent on implementing IMF measures, securing external financing, and maintaining fiscal discipline.

    The report highlights the dire poverty situation in Pakistan, with an estimated 39.4 per cent of the population living below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold in FY23, compared to 34.2 per cent in FY22. Factors contributing to this include economic slowdown, floods in 2022, import restrictions, political uncertainty, rising global commodity prices, and reduced investor confidence.

    The fiscal deficit remains a concern. While some easing of import restrictions may widen the current account deficit, a weaker currency and higher domestic energy prices could sustain inflation. The report emphasizes the importance of comprehensive fiscal reforms, including reducing tax exemptions, broadening the tax base, improving public expenditure quality, reforming the energy sector, and managing public debt more effectively.

    The World Bank stresses that addressing these challenges is crucial for long-term recovery and recommends strengthening institutions and systems to achieve fiscal and debt sustainability. The report echoes concerns about external shocks, political instability, and debt servicing challenges, underlining the need for prudent economic management and reforms.

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts a modest GDP growth recovery to 1.9 per cent in FY24, following a contraction of 0.3 per cent in FY23, with persistent price pressures. Overall, Pakistan faces a complex economic landscape that demands immediate attention to fiscal reform, poverty alleviation, and resilience to external shocks.

  • Saudi Arabia to invest $25 billion in Pakistan over five years: PM Kakar

    Saudi Arabia to invest $25 billion in Pakistan over five years: PM Kakar

    On Monday, Interim Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar announced that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) intends to invest a substantial sum of up to $25 billion in Pakistan over the next two to five years.

    During a media briefing, PM Kakar explained that Saudi Arabia’s investment focus will primarily encompass the mining, agriculture, and information technology sectors. This initiative aims to boost foreign direct investment in Pakistan, which is currently facing financial challenges. 

    If this investment materialises, it will mark the largest-ever commitment by Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. The country is grappling with a pressing need for funds to address its trade deficit and repay international loans in the ongoing fiscal year. 

    While specific projects earmarked for Saudi investment were not disclosed during the meeting, Barrick Gold Corp. expressed interest last month in partnering with Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund for the Reko Diq mine in Pakistan. 

    Kakar emphasised that Pakistan holds substantial untapped mineral resources valued conservatively at $6 trillion. Additionally, the government intends to expedite two privatisation transactions, likely involving state-owned power sector entities, within the next six months. There is also a plan to privatise another government-owned company, preferably outside the energy sector. 

    Read more: Business community finds hope as COAS Munir vows to tackle corruption and boost investment  

    It’s worth noting that privatisation efforts in Pakistan have faced challenges in the past, as the sale of state assets is a politically sensitive issue that previous elected governments have largely avoided. 

    Currently, Pakistan is navigating a challenging path to economic recovery under a caretaker administration, following the approval of a $3 billion loan plan by the International Monetary Fund in July, which prevented a sovereign debt default. Islamabad is confronted with a balance of payments crisis and requires substantial funds to rectify its trade deficit and settle outstanding debts. 

  • Inflation in Pakistan stays above 27% despite IMF reforms

    Inflation in Pakistan stays above 27% despite IMF reforms

    Pakistan continues to grapple with soaring inflation, with the rate holding steady at 27.4 per cent in August, according to data released on Friday. This persistent inflationary pressure is partially attributed to the reforms mandated as part of the IMF loan agreement, which have complicated efforts to stabilise prices and curb declines in the national currency, the rupee.

    The South Asian nation is treading cautiously on its path to economic recovery, with a caretaker government at the helm following the approval of a $3 billion loan programme by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July, averting a potential sovereign debt default.

    However, the conditions tied to this bailout, including the relaxation of import restrictions and the removal of subsidies, have contributed to a surge in annual inflation. In May, inflation reached a staggering 38.0 per cent, setting a new record. Concurrently, interest rates have risen, and the rupee has experienced historic lows, with a 6.2 per cent decline in the currency’s value last month.

    While the August data from Pakistan’s statistics bureau indicates a slight easing from July’s 28.3 per cent inflation rate, food inflation remains alarmingly high at 38.5 per cent. Authorities have further exacerbated the situation by raising gasoline and diesel prices to record highs on Friday.

    These worsening economic conditions, coupled with escalating political tensions ahead of a national election scheduled for November, have triggered sporadic protests. Jamaat-e-Islami has announced a nationwide strike in response to the increased power tariffs.

    Every day, Pakistanis are feeling the pinch and struggling to make ends meet. Waseem Ahmed, a bank employee in Islamabad, lamented the plight of the middle class, stating, “More than 60 to 70 per cent of my salary is spent on bills and petrol. Where will we get basic staples from? This is why people are contemplating suicide,” he told Reuters.

    According to ARY News, Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, a Karachi-based brokerage firm, acknowledged that August’s inflation reading aligns with expectations. However, he cautioned that the depreciating rupee and rising energy prices may prevent a significant year-on-year decline in inflation, contrary to earlier government projections that had anticipated a drop to 22 per cent by the end of the fiscal year running until June 31.

    Pakistan’s central bank, in its last monetary policy statement in July, held benchmark interest rates steady at 22 per cent and expressed optimism that inflation would follow a downward trajectory over the ensuing 12 months. However, the current economic challenges present formidable hurdles to achieving that goal.

  • IMF and Pakistan discuss circular debt and energy sector losses in virtual meeting

    IMF and Pakistan discuss circular debt and energy sector losses in virtual meeting

    Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently discussed the country’s energy sector losses and efforts to reduce circular debt during a virtual meeting. The government is committed to adjusting fuel prices and quarterly tariffs to eliminate circular debt accumulation.

    According to The News, a new plan called the Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP) was shared with the IMF. This plan involves revising fuel price adjustments and quarterly tariffs upward to counter circular debt growth. The IMF expressed concerns about the plan’s sustainability due to slower recoveries.

    The government was advised to create an effective strategy to tackle this issue. The meeting took place virtually on a technical level. The newly appointed Finance Minister, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, is expected to hold a virtual meeting with the IMF team soon.

    The IMF’s first review is scheduled for October or November and will be based on economic data from the initial quarter (July–September) of the current fiscal year.

    Pakistan and the IMF signed a $3 billion bailout package under the Standby Arrangement in July 2023. Pakistan has already received $1.2 billion, with two more reviews planned to release the remaining $1.8 billion by March or April 2024.