Tag: Economic stability

  • IMF mission holds crucial talks with FinMin Aurangzeb on $3 billion SBA

    IMF mission holds crucial talks with FinMin Aurangzeb on $3 billion SBA

    In a pivotal meeting held on Thursday, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, engaged in discussions regarding structural reforms and the viability of the energy sector with the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission.

    The mission’s visit is part of the second review process of the $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) established between Pakistan and the international lender.

    Key points of deliberation encompassed various facets of Pakistan’s macroeconomic landscape, including fiscal consolidation efforts by the government, structural reforms, energy sector sustainability, and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

    Expressing a warm reception, the finance minister underscored the government’s steadfast commitment to collaborating with the IMF to drive forward the reform agenda, aimed at fostering economic growth and bolstering stability across Pakistan.

    During the meeting, Nathan Porter, head of the IMF mission, extended congratulations to Muhammad Aurangzeb on his appointment as the finance minister.

    Anticipations are high that the IMF mission’s visit could culminate in a staff-level agreement regarding the second review of the SBA.

    Since its inception in July 2023, Pakistan has received $1.9 billion out of the allocated $3 billion under the nine-month programme.

    Aurangzeb, articulating the government’s stance, outlined intentions to explore the possibility of acquiring a more extensive and prolonged Extended Fund Facility (EFF) within the IMF framework, with the overarching objective of attaining macroeconomic stability.

    Officials from Pakistan, including Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Energy Minister Musadik Malik, apprised the IMF team of the concerted efforts undertaken to implement the prescribed reforms, including the adjustment of energy tariffs.

    An official from the Finance Division, speaking on anonymity, disclosed the IMF’s acknowledgment of Pakistan’s strides in meeting quarterly programmeme targets under the SBA.

    Simultaneously, discussions are underway to chart the trajectory of the subsequent programmeme, with deliberations leaning towards a more extensive endeavour valued at approximately $8 billion.

    Minister Malik elaborated on the government’s energy reform agenda, highlighting recent adjustments in electricity and gas prices aligned with the stipulated schedule.

    The recent levy hike on petrol and diesel, coupled with the augmentation of gas tariffs for domestic consumers, underscores Pakistan’s commitment to fulfilling key conditions outlined in the IMF’s final review.

    Economic analysts anticipate a seamless final review process, citing Pakistan’s commendable adherence to the IMF’s performance targets as a harbinger of success.

  • Pakistan gears up for crucial IMF talks on $3 billion SBA programme

    Pakistan gears up for crucial IMF talks on $3 billion SBA programme

    Pakistan is set to commence vital discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concerning the completion of the second review under the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) programme.

    The formal invitation to the Washington-based lender is expected to be dispatched shortly after the formation and oath-taking of the federal cabinet, with negotiations anticipated to commence in the coming week.

    Simultaneously, Pakistan plans to request a new deal under the 36-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

    Sources have indicated that the size of the upcoming EFF programme is yet to be finalized, but Islamabad aims to explore the inclusion of climate finance to potentially increase the programme’s magnitude from $6 billion to $8 billion.

    A significant challenge facing the incoming finance minister is the pursuit of the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) tax collection target of Rs890 billion for March 2024. Failure to meet this quarterly (Jan-March) target with the IMF may prompt additional taxation measures for the remaining fiscal year.

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a high-level meeting on Tuesday to receive a comprehensive briefing from the FBR team on the future strategy for revamping the taxation system.

    The FBR has, to date, collected Rs5.82 trillion in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, experiencing a shortfall of Rs33 billion in achieving the February 2024 monthly target.

    To meet the targeted Rs9.415 trillion by June 30, 2024, the FBR must collect Rs3.58 trillion in the remaining four months (March-June) period.

    March 2024 holds particular significance, with the monthly target of Rs890 billion crucial for fulfilling the agreed third-quarter (Jan-March) period with the IMF.

    PM Shehbaz emphasized the immediate commencement of automation and digitization of the FBR, personally committing to monitor the entire process.

    According to The News, he urged the adoption of international best practices to enhance transparency, increase tax collection, and eradicate tax evasion, corruption, and smuggling.

    Expressing dissatisfaction with the current progress, PM Shehbaz directed the FBR to start the automation and digitization process immediately, urging the acquisition of services from international firms. He stressed the appointment of officers based on merit in the Track and Trace system.

    During the meeting, FBR Chairman Malik Amjad Tiwana briefed the prime minister on measures taken towards automation, tax net expansion, refund payments to exporters, and anti-smuggling efforts.

    PM Shehbaz, however, insisted on immediate progress, highlighting the collaboration with the Ministry of Interior and the Pakistan Army to combat smuggling effectively.

    As the meeting concluded, PM Shehbaz praised the efforts of caretaker finance minister Dr. Shamshad Akhtar and her team, commending their adherence to the policies laid by the previous government to avert default.

    The prime minister expressed confidence in achieving progress and prosperity through diligent efforts and adherence to the right direction.

    The meeting, attended by key officials, emphasized the urgency of digitalized invoicing and the inclusion of 1.5 million more individuals into the tax net, underlining the government’s commitment to fostering economic stability and growth.

  • Moody’s cautions on Pakistan’s fiscal challenges despite recent stability

    Moody’s cautions on Pakistan’s fiscal challenges despite recent stability

    Moody’s Investors Service, a global credit rating agency, stated on Tuesday that Pakistan’s credit rating could see an upgrade if the government successfully reduces liquidity and external vulnerability risks.

    Despite this potential, Moody’s maintained Pakistan’s credit rating at ‘Caa3’ for long-term issuer rating with a stable outlook in its periodic review.

    The credit profile of Pakistan reflects significant liquidity and external vulnerability risks, attributed to low foreign exchange reserves insufficient to meet high external financing needs in the near to medium term, according to Moody’s.

    The agency also highlighted the country’s very weak fiscal strength and elevated political risks as constraints on its credit profile.

    Moody’s expressed uncertainty regarding the new government’s ability to swiftly negotiate a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme after the ongoing programme concludes in April.

    While acknowledging Pakistan’s large economy and moderate growth potential, the agency emphasized the nation’s high liquidity and external vulnerability risks, despite economic stability maintained by the caretaker government and recent reforms.

    The agency recognised the government’s efforts to unlock financing from the IMF and other partners, resulting in a modest accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.

    However, it cautioned that, despite meeting external debt obligations for the fiscal year ending June 2024, there is limited visibility on sources of financing to address high external financing needs post-the current IMF stand-by arrangement.

    Moody’s rationale for the stable outlook at the Caa3 rating level is based on the assessment that pressures on Pakistan align with this rating, with broadly balanced risks.

    The agency suggested that continued IMF engagement beyond the current programme could attract additional financing from other partners, reducing default risk.

    Nonetheless, it emphasised the substantial external financing required and low reserve position, indicating potential default risks with funding delays.

    Moody’s indicated that an upgrade in Pakistan’s rating could occur with a substantial and sustained reduction in liquidity and external vulnerability risks, coupled with increased foreign exchange reserves and fiscal consolidation.

    Conversely, a downgrade might be likely if Pakistan defaults on debt obligations with significant losses to creditors.

    The agency expressed uncertainty regarding the new government’s ability to negotiate a new IMF programme swiftly after the ongoing one expires in April, citing high political risks following the controversial general elections held on February 8, 2024.

    Moody’s warned that without a new programme, Pakistan’s ability to secure loans from other partners would be severely constrained.

  • Economic challenges await next govt as Pakistan votes

    Economic challenges await next govt as Pakistan votes

    Pakistan is set to hold its national elections on Thursday, a crucial event for the country grappling with multiple crises.

    As the new government prepares to take charge, it faces daunting challenges in stabilising the economy.

    Last summer, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default through a last-minute $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    However, this lifeline is set to end in March, and officials anticipate the need for a new, extended programme.

    Negotiating this program swiftly is imperative for the incoming government, as the economy is burdened by record-high inflation and slow growth resulting from stringent reforms.

    The country’s headline inflation stood at 28.3 per cent year-on-year in January, slightly lower than December’s 29.7 per cent. Despite government expectations, citizens are anxious for the new administration to address the soaring inflation that has significantly impacted their daily lives.

    Moreover, recent increases in gas prices, with a 35.13 per cent hike for Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and 8.57 per cent for Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC), add to the economic challenges. The move, effective from January 1, 2024, is the second increase in gas prices this fiscal year.

    In addition to rising gas prices, the cost of petrol and diesel has surged, with a notable increase of Rs13.55 per litre announced on February 1, 2024. This hike is attributed to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including Israel’s conflict with Gaza and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

    Amid these economic hardships, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved an increase in electricity tariffs for distribution companies (Discos) by Rs4.57 per unit for December 2023. This adjustment addresses the escalating fuel costs impacting the power sector.

    The new government is also expected to address the exchange rate concerns as the Pakistani rupee struggles against the US dollar, currently standing at around Rs279.

    The disparity has led to increased prices for essential commodities, further straining the population.

    Adding to the complexity of the upcoming elections is the high political tension, with former prime minister Imran Khan describing a crackdown on him and his party.

    Khan, who has been in jail since August, faces pending cases, including accusations of ordering violent attacks on military installations.

    Despite his imprisonment, Khan maintains substantial popular support, and continued political unrest could jeopardise the stability needed for economic recovery and foreign investment.

    As Pakistan stands at a critical juncture, the incoming government’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine the nation’s economic trajectory in the coming years.

  • Pakistan informs IMF of preparedness to address near-term challenges

    Pakistan informs IMF of preparedness to address near-term challenges

    In a recent communication to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has underscored its preparedness to address potential near-term challenges, signalling a commitment to maintaining economic stability.

    The disclosure comes as part of the IMF’s first review under the stand-by arrangement.

    The government, as revealed in the report, stands ready to respond decisively should near-term price pressures reemerge. This includes addressing stronger-than-expected second-round effects on core inflation and potential pressures on the exchange rate amid the normalisation of the current account.

    Amid signs of weaker demand, positive supply developments, and decreasing pressures on the exchange rate, the government anticipates a notable decline in inflation in the coming months.

    As a result, the policy rate was maintained at 22 per cent during the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on October 30. However, the government reiterated its readiness to respond promptly if there is a resurgence of near-term price pressures.

    The primary objective is to ensure a clear downward trajectory for inflation and inflation expectations. The pace of future adjustments will be contingent on various factors, including inflation data, exchange rate developments, external position strength, and the fiscal-monetary policy mix.

    The government aims to keep the real policy rate in positive territory on a forward-looking basis, signalling a commitment to bringing inflation within the target band by fiscal year 2026.

    To enhance monetary policy transmission, the interest rate on major refinancing schemes, specifically the EFS and LTFF, will continue to be linked to the policy rate, with a spread of no more than 3 per centage points, as per the announcement by Pakistani authorities.

    The report emphasised the importance of vigilance, highlighting that despite the return of the forward-looking real policy rate to positive territory, caution is necessary due to near-term risks.

    With inflation expectations not yet firmly anchored, the Monetary Policy Committee is urged to respond robustly and promptly should inflationary pressures resurface.

    Maintaining a positive real policy rate during a period of easing inflation and promptly addressing signs of new demand pressures or rising inflation expectations is seen as crucial.

    This strategy aims to re-anchor inflation expectations and guide down core inflation from the second half of fiscal year 2024 onwards, contingent on the absence of a resumption in administrative import compression.

    The report projects a significant decline in headline inflation through fiscal years 2025–26, aligning within the targeted 5–7 per cent range by fiscal year 2026. This outlook is supported by fiscal consolidation efforts and the normalization of global commodity prices.

    While the IMF staff views the current stance as broadly appropriate given weak domestic demand, the report suggests that the MPC should remain prepared to respond resolutely if near-term price pressures reemerge, including second-round effects.

  • Pakistani rupee continues to gain ground against major currencies

    Pakistani rupee continues to gain ground against major currencies

    In Tuesday’s interbank session, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) demonstrated resilience against the US dollar (USD), settling the trade at PKR 280.25 per USD.

    This maintained a stable position compared to the previous session’s closing rate of PKR 280.24 per USD.

    Throughout the day, the currency experienced an intraday high (bid) of Rs280.6 and a low (ask) of Rs280.1.

    In the open market, Exchange Companies quoted the US dollar at Rs279 for buying and Rs281 for selling.

    Notably, the PKR celebrated its 9th consecutive weekly victory, appreciating by 1.04 rupees against the US dollar last week.

    This positive trend can be attributed to various factors, including increased liquidity in the foreign exchange market, tighter enforcement of regulations, a reduction in the money supply, a balance of payments surplus due to low import demand, and a moratorium on Chinese debt repayments.

    In comparison to major currencies, the PKR exhibited strength by gaining 1.17 rupees against the Euro, closing at Rs305.92 in contrast to the previous value of Rs307.09.

    The British Pound became more affordable by Rs2.15, concluding at Rs355.06 compared to Rs357.21 from the previous day.

    The Swiss franc experienced losses of 2.48 rupees, closing at Rs326.23 as opposed to Rs328.71 in the previous session.

    Against the Japanese Yen, the PKR gained 0.96 paisa, closing at Rs1.9181 versus Rs1.9277 a day ago.

    Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan saw a slight decline, losing 6 paisa and closing at Rs39.01 against Rs39.07 from the previous session.

  • IMF greenlights $700 million for Pakistan’s economic stabilisation programme

    IMF greenlights $700 million for Pakistan’s economic stabilisation programme

    In a significant development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) successfully concluded its first review of Pakistan’s economic reform programme on Thursday.

    This programme, backed by a $3 billion and-by a arrangement (SBA), has now received a boost with the immediate approval and disbursement of $700 million, as confirmed by the finance ministry.

    According to an official statement from the ministry, the completion of the first review by the IMF’s Executive Board, coupled with the payment of $528 million in special drawing rights, has elevated the total disbursements under the SBA to $1.9 billion.

    The infusion of funds from the IMF, combined with recent inflows from multilateral lenders, is anticipated to contribute to the stability of the Pakistani rupee, which has demonstrated relative steadiness over the past few months.

    The finance ministry highlighted that this fresh tranche would play a crucial role in facilitating rollovers from allied countries, including the United Arab Emirates, China, and Saudi Arabia.

    Additionally, it is expected to alleviate external debt repayment pressures faced by Pakistan.

    This positive development traces back to June 2023, when the IMF Executive Board granted approval for a much-needed nine-month arrangement with Pakistan to support its economic stabilisation program.

    The initial disbursement of $1.2 billion was promptly released in July, with the remainder subject to two quarterly reviews over the programme’s duration.

    The current IMF programme is slated to conclude in the second week of April, with the recent disbursement marking a significant step towards its successful execution.

    Notably, a staff-level agreement was reached in November 2023 between the IMF staff and Pakistani authorities, paving the way for the first review under Pakistan’s SBA.

    This agreement was contingent upon subsequent approval by the IMF’s Executive Board.

    Looking ahead, Pakistan is poised to receive the remaining amount in March under the $3 billion SBA.

    Despite facing challenging conditions, particularly persistently high inflation, which rose to 29.7 per cent in December from 29.2 per cent in the preceding month, Pakistan remains committed to navigating through these economic challenges with the assistance of international financial institutions.

  • Winning streak: Pakistani rupee appreciates 0.04% in fourth consecutive session

    Winning streak: Pakistani rupee appreciates 0.04% in fourth consecutive session

    In a resilient display, the Pakistani rupee continued its upward trajectory against the US dollar, marking gains for the fourth consecutive session in the interbank market on Monday. 

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a noteworthy appreciation of 0.04 per cent, with the rupee settling at Rs281.28 after a rise of Re0.12.

    This positive trend extends the rupee’s recent performance, as it achieved a 0.16 per cent appreciation during the preceding week, settling at Rs281.40 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market. 

    Impressively, this marks the eighth consecutive week of the local currency advancing against the greenback.

    The momentum driving the rupee’s strength can be attributed to the recent announcement of a staff-level agreement (SLA) between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

    This agreement pertains to the first review of the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA), reinforcing investor confidence in Pakistan’s economic stability.

    A significant development contributing to this positive outlook is the notable increase in foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan. 

    According to SBP data from the previous week, the central bank’s reserves surged by $464 million on a weekly basis, reaching $8.2 billion as of December 29.

    Internationally, the US dollar maintained stability on Monday, with investors eagerly awaiting a crucial US inflation report later in the week. This report is expected to provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. 

    The greenback’s recent rally was supported by a rebound in US Treasury yields as traders adjusted their expectations regarding the pace and scale of potential Fed cuts this year. 

    This cautious optimism globally has complemented Pakistan’s positive economic indicators, contributing to the sustained strength of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar.

  • Inflation may drop to 20-22% in the coming year: SBP report

    Inflation may drop to 20-22% in the coming year: SBP report

    In the Governor’s Annual Report 2022–23, released ahead of the upcoming national election, the Chief of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) conveyed that the country’s inflation is expected to decrease to approximately 20–22 per cent in fiscal year 2024.

    The SBP remains committed to making decisions aimed at preventing persistently high inflation. Notably, Pakistan’s economy fell significantly short of its fiscal and primary surplus targets in FY23, resulting in a contraction of the real GDP to 0.2 per cent.

    During FY23, Pakistan, with a population of 241 million, witnessed its highest-ever inflation, leading to historic lows in its currency value. The situation was mitigated by a $3 billion IMF bailout in July, preventing an imminent sovereign default.

    Governor Jameel Ahmed highlighted in the report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 29.2 per cent in FY23, aligning with the upper bound of the bank’s revised projections.

    The SBP remains committed to anchoring inflation expectations to achieve its medium-term target of 5-7 per cent by the end of FY25.

    Fiscal and policy measures implemented before and after the bailout are contributing to stabilising Pakistan’s $350 billion economy as the country approaches the national election scheduled for February 8.

    Despite missing fiscal and primary surplus targets by a considerable margin, the SBP emphasises its dedication to curbing inflation.

    Simultaneously, the finance ministry anticipates a moderate inflation outlook for the remaining months of FY24, even with the upward revision of administered prices, particularly gas prices.

    According to the ministry’s monthly economic report, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for December is projected to be in the range of 27.5-28.5 per cent.

    Looking ahead, the ministry foresees a further easing of inflation to 24–25 per cent in January 2024.