Tag: EXCHANGE RATE

  • State Bank of Pakistan expected to raise key policy rate to record-high

    State Bank of Pakistan expected to raise key policy rate to record-high

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to raise its policy rate by a significant 100-200 basis points in light of the country’s economic situation and historically high inflation reading. Financial analysts anticipate the Monetary Policy Committee to increase its key policy rate to 21-22 per cent at the review today (April 4) to curb inflation. This decision is expected to discourage private-sector borrowing since an increase in currency in circulation can drive inflation up.

    In March, the central bank raised its key rate by a massive 300 basis points to a record-high level of 20 per cent, surpassing market expectations to meet the International Monetary Fund’s requirements for the release of its pending bailout funds. The country recorded historic high inflation at 35.4 per cent in March on an annualized basis, with core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, increasing to 18.6 per cent in urban areas and 23.1 per cent in rural areas.

    The market’s reaction to surging inflation is evident from the recent rise in bond market rates driven by investors’ bullish outlook. According to a survey conducted by Arif Habib Limited, 57.7 per cent of respondents expect the policy rate to increase. Of these respondents, 30.8 per cent are predicting a rate hike of 100bps and 26.9 per cent foreseeing a rate hike of 200 bps. Meanwhile, 42.3 per cent of respondents believe that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 20 per cent.

    The expected increase in the policy rate will make bank financing even more expensive, reduce demand for foreign financing for imports, and help address the fast decline in foreign exchange reserves, which have dropped to critically low levels at $4.2 billion. The cash-strapped country is undertaking key measures to secure IMF funding, including raising taxes, removing blanket subsidies, and artificial curbs on the exchange rate. While the government expects a deal with the IMF soon, media reports suggest that the agency expects the policy rate to be increased.

    Initially, the MPC meeting was scheduled for April 27, according to the six-month advance calendar issued by the central bank in December 2022. However, the SBP called an off-cycle review last month and brought forward the April meeting. The revival of the IMF loan program will help attract $3-4 billion from multilateral and bilateral creditors, including the IMF, and stabilize foreign exchange reserves over the short term.

  • Pakistani rupee gains against US dollar amidst hopes for IMF deal

    Pakistani rupee gains against US dollar amidst hopes for IMF deal

    Pakistani rupee on Monday gained against the US dollar due to two key developments: the country secured $500 million from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and there was optimism around a potential deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    During intraday trading, the local currency witnessed an increase of Rs3.46 against the greenback in the interbank market, with the exchange rate at around 11:45 pm being Rs275.

    However, last week the rupee made even greater gains against the US dollar. The State Bank of Pakistan reported a 2.38 per cent appreciation, equivalent to Rs6.63, in the interbank market, with the local unit closing at Rs278.46 on Friday.

    According to the General Secretary of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), Zafar Paracha, the hype around the earlier dollar appreciation was caused by the country’s financial institutions and international players manipulating rates.

    Paracha noted that the destabilized currency damages Pakistan’s image and discourages foreign direct investment and local investors. He anticipated that with the IMF agreement and inflows from friendly countries, the dollar should remain in the range of Rs260 to Rs265.

    He also highlighted that Pakistan’s political condition has been impacting the dollar rates, which is a new phenomenon. He mentioned that increasing Pakistan’s tax base, not tax rates, is crucial, and the government should reduce expenditures and subsidies given to elites.

    According to Geo, there is hope for a deal with the IMF, with a government official expressing optimism about striking a deal, and another official expecting to reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF in the coming days, although the Fund has not provided a timeframe for finalizing the agreement.

  • Pakistani rupee drops by more than Rs18 against US dollar due to delay in IMF deal

    Pakistani rupee drops by more than Rs18 against US dollar due to delay in IMF deal

    Pakistani rupee (PKR) experienced a significant decline of over Rs18.8 against the US dollar in the interbank market during intra-day trade, ahead of the monetary policy review and delay in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal.

    At approximately 11:40 am, the greenback was being traded at Rs285 against the local currency, compared to its previous day’s closing of Rs266.11.

    Zafar Paracha, the General Secretary of ECAP, expressed concern over the delay in the agreement with IMF and the lender’s demand to peg the currency rate with that of the grey market, which has resulted in market uncertainty.

    In his opinion, the current rate is too high and should not have risen to this extent. He also noted that the greenback was being traded at Rs290 in the grey market a day earlier.

    Adnan Asghar, a currency market expert, stated that the delay in the deal between Pakistan and the IMF has contributed to the depreciation of the rupee.

    He added that the uncertain political situation has also been a factor in the decline of the rupee’s value. Asghar warned that the country is approaching a default situation due to this delay.

  • International petrol, diesel prices drop, but no relief for Pakistanis

    The government has decided not to reduce the prices of diesel and petrol for local consumers, despite a significant decrease in their international prices. This decision is intended to offset previous exchange losses and raise taxation.

    On February 28, 2023, the average fortnightly prices of petrol and diesel in the global market will be used for the next price revision. According to industry sources, the average price of diesel for the next fortnightly review has dropped by $7 per barrel, which equates to a reduction of Rs30 per litre for domestic diesel prices.

    The global average price of diesel has fallen to approximately $100 per barrel compared to $107 per barrel in the previous fortnight. Similarly, the average price of petrol has dropped to $90 per barrel for the next review of prices compared to $93 per barrel in the last fortnightly review, which translates into a reduction of Rs10 per litre for consumers in the local market.

    According to Geo, the appreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the dollar in the last two weeks has also contributed to the reduction in import prices of diesel and petrol. However, industry sources do not expect any significant reduction in the prices of diesel and petrol for domestic consumers.

    The government is expected to adjust the exchange losses, which were not passed on fully to the oil sector in the last several reviews. For example, an exchange loss adjustment of Rs88 per litre was due on diesel, but the government only transferred Rs12 per litre on this head, leaving the remaining amount to be adjusted. The same is true for petrol, with an exchange loss adjustment of Rs34 per litre due, but only Rs12 per litre being given to the oil industry.

    Under the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government may increase the petroleum levy (PL) on diesel to Rs50 per litre, as it now has room to do so. Currently, the PL on diesel is Rs40 per litre.

    If the government does not impose GST, sources expect a cut of Rs10 per litre in diesel prices, which would otherwise deprive local consumers of the drop in diesel prices in the global market.

    However, official industry sources do not anticipate any reduction in the price of petrol for local consumers, which would otherwise have been down by Rs10, as per the trends of its price in the global market.

  • Pakistani rupee breaks winning streak, closes at Rs262.51 against dollar

    Pakistani rupee breaks winning streak, closes at Rs262.51 against dollar

    During Tuesday’s interbank trading, the Pakistani rupee (PKR) declined and experienced losses against the dollar, reaching a low of Rs265 versus the dollar.
    The rupee lost 63 paisas versus the dollar by the time markets closed, depreciating by 0.24 per cent.

    The local currency commenced trading at Rs261.50 versus the US dollar with full red value. By lunchtime, the dollar had risen to about Rs264 versus the rupee. Before the interbank closure, the local currency was mostly bearish versus the top foreign currency after 1 PM.

    The National Assembly passed the Finance (Supplementary) Bill, 2023, on Monday, proposing extra taxes and tariffs of Rs170 billion, ending the rupee’s five-day winning streak against the dollar and clearing the way for the staff-level deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    After its record-breaking single-day plunge of Rs25 in the latter week of January, when the rupee was finally “freed” versus the US dollar in the inter-bank market, the rupee has lost more than Rs27. The PKR has decreased by 62.99 paisas today based on observable market trends and fiscal developments.

    Money exchangers claim that a further delay in the staff-level agreement with the IMF might increase pressure on the PKR as investors and exporters alike track exchange rate movements to calculate profit yields in the face of constrained revenue estimates and related import restrictions.

    The rupee may appreciate until the conclusion of the current fiscal year, 2022–2023, in the event that the rescue is successful.

    After obtaining a $2.5 billion loan, the IMF’s current loan programme will end on June 30, 2023. Pakistan will have to reapply for the new loan programme if necessary in the next fiscal year.

  • Petrol, diesel prices expected to increase by more than Rs32 per litre from tomorrow

    Petrol, diesel prices expected to increase by more than Rs32 per litre from tomorrow

    The prices of petroleum products are expected to increase by more than Rs32 per litre from February 16th, due to fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate. The current price of petroleum, oil and lubricants is set at Rs236.40 per dollar, which equates to Rs271.82 for the next fortnight. It’s worth noting that free-on-board Platt prices have seen a decline when compared to last fortnight’s pricing.

    Official and industrial sources have indicated that the price of Mogas is expected to increase by 12.8 per cent per litre, or by Rs32.07, resulting in a new price of Rs281.87 from the previous price of Rs249.8 per litre. The price of diesel is also set to rise by 12.5 per cent, or by Rs32.84, to reach Rs295.64 per litre, up from the previous price of Rs262.8 per litre.

    Kerosene oil is predicted to increase by 14.8 per cent, or by Rs28.05, bringing the new price to Rs217.88 per litre. Additionally, light diesel oil (LDO) could go up 5.3 per cent, or by Rs9.90, resulting in a new price of Rs196.90 per litre from Rs187 per litre set in the last review.

    According to The News, based on current government taxes and estimated Pakistan State Oil (PSO) incidentals, the prices mentioned above are projected. However, there is a possibility of the government adjusting the exchange rate to over Rs251, which could result in an increase of Rs15 per litre for both Mogas and diesel products. Moreover, the petroleum levy for diesel, currently standing at Rs40, may increase by Rs10 to reach Rs50 from February 16th.

    The government had set a target of earning Rs850 billion by imposing a petroleum levy on petroleum, oil, and lubricants. However, there is an estimated shortfall of Rs250 billion, and the authorities are hoping to collect a revenue of Rs600 billion.

    It’s worth noting that the government had implemented a significant increase of Rs35 per litre from February 1st, 2023, until February 15th. Presently, the government is charging Rs50 per litre as a petroleum levy, and the general sales tax (GST) has not been imposed yet.

    According to an official, the losses incurred by the refineries and oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to the exchange rate will be eliminated in a phased manner, as the government does not wish to burden consumers with the entire exchange rate at once.

    The federal government’s last review of petroleum product prices took place on January 29, 2021.

    At present, Pakistan is experiencing a shortage of petrol, with the province of Punjab, which has the largest population, bearing the brunt of the crisis. Petroleum dealers have been blamed for the situation.

    Additionally, it has been alleged that hoarders are stockpiling petrol in anticipation of a price hike scheduled for February 15th (today).

  • Pakistani rupee gains Rs1.28 against US dollar, closes at Rs275.30

    Pakistani rupee gains Rs1.28 against US dollar, closes at Rs275.30

    On Monday, the Pakistani rupee exhibited a slight improvement in its exchange rate against the US dollar, closing with a gain of 0.46 per cent in the inter-bank market. The local currency settled at Rs275.30 per US dollar, an improvement of Rs1.28, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

    During the current fiscal year, the rupee has depreciated by 25.47 per cent against the US dollar. This appreciation follows a recent decline, with the rupee hitting an all-time low against the US dollar on Friday, closing at Rs276.58, a decrease of Rs5.22 or 1.89 per cent.

    Last week, the Pakistani rupee experienced a cumulative decline of 5.05 per cent. This was due to a number of factors, including low foreign exchange reserves, which decreased by an additional $592 million to reach a mere $3.09 billion.

    Additionally, comments made by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif regarding the challenging loan negotiation process with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further added to investor concerns.

    Discussions with the IMF are ongoing, and reports indicate that the organization is requiring reforms and preconditions in several critical areas, including taxation, the power sector, and energy pricing. Analysts predict that the rupee will continue to face pressure until the IMF program is fully clarified.

  • Intraday update: Pakistani rupee drops to Rs268.30, losing more than Rs12 versus US dollar

    Intraday update: Pakistani rupee drops to Rs268.30, losing more than Rs12 versus US dollar

    Pakistani rupee (PKR) continued its downward trend on Friday, with the rupee declining over Rs12 versus the US dollar in the interbank market. The local currency was trading at Rs268.30, compared to yesterday’s close of Rs255.43 in the interbank market.

    The dollar has gained Rs30.41 in the interbank market since Thursday as exchange companies removed the dollar cap, a key demand of the IMF as part of a bailout programme agreed upon in 2018.

    PKR fell to Rs265 against the US dollar in the open market, a decline of Rs3 compared to the day before.

    The removal of the cap on the dollar rate took the currency market by surprise and resulted in extreme volatility. Experts termed it a “much-awaited adjustment” and predicted that it would help in increasing export proceeds and inward remittances through legal banking channels.

    The difference in rates between the interbank and open markets owing to the price cap removal, which had widened to Rs15 in recent months, was almost wiped out.

    The country’s foreign exchange reserves have depleted to a critical level, falling to $3.678 billion in the week ending January 20. This is not enough to finance even three weeks of imports.

    This is a developing story and will be updated after interbank closing.

  • Gold price hits all-time high of Rs195,500 per tola after removal of an unofficial dollar cap

    Gold price hits all-time high of Rs195,500 per tola after removal of an unofficial dollar cap

    Gold prices in Pakistan continued their record-breaking spree as the price of 24-carat gold reached an all-time high of Rs195,500 after gaining Rs4,900.

    In addition, the price of 10 grammes also witnessed an increase of Rs4,201 to settle at Rs167,610, according to the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA).

    Moreover, the bullion rate in the international market reached $1,936 after a surge of $11.

    The Pakistani rupee (PKR) on Thursday dropped drastically to approach an all-time low, days after exchange companies abolished the cap on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.

    The sudden hike in yellow metal prices comes as the weakening rupee pushed investors to the safety of bullion to hedge against intensifying economic turmoil in the country.

    On Thursday, the local currency crashed to approach another historic low, as it dropped to Rs255.43 versus the US dollar in the interbank market, sliding Rs24.54 or 9.61 per cent from Wednesday’s close, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.