Tag: fiscal year 2022-23

  • Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan’s economy exhibited signs of recovery with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.13 per cent, marking a significant improvement from the 0.96 per cent recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. 

    These estimates gained approval during the 107th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting convened on the same day.  

    To align with the structural benchmarks outlined in the IMF-SBA program, PBS engaged in consultations with stakeholders and data providers. They presented revised GDP figures for both the fiscal year 2022-23 and the first quarter of 2023-24 to the NAC. 

    In a noteworthy development, the NAC also sanctioned the incorporation of quarterly national accounts into the country’s statistical system. 

    Revisiting the GDP figures for the fiscal year 2022-23, the growth rate has been revised to -0.17 per cent, a departure from the provisional report of 0.29 per cent. 

    Breaking down the growth by industry, the 107th NAC greenlit a sector-specific methodology for compiling quarterly GDP. This includes a series of quarterly growth rates for various industries spanning from the first quarter of 2016-17 to the first quarter of 2023, with 2015-16 serving as the base year. 

    For the first quarter of 2023-24, the agricultural sector exhibited growth of 5.06 per cent, the industrial sector 2.48 per cent, and services 0.82 per cent. 

    In agriculture, crops recorded a robust growth of 6.13 per cent, with a notable 11.16 per cent increase in important crops.  

    The expansion is attributed to a rise in the sowing area, particularly for rice, cotton, and maize, with increases of 21 per cent, 11 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively. Sugarcane saw an 11 per cent decline, but this was offset by growth in other major crops. 

    The industrial sector, which experienced a continuous decline in the preceding fiscal year except for a modest growth in the second quarter, reversed its trend in the first quarter of 2023-24, registering a growth of 2.48 per cent. Mining and quarrying posted a positive growth of 2.15 per cent, based on quarterly production in the mining sector.  

    Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) demonstrated growth of 0.93 per cent according to the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM). Construction industry growth was estimated at 1.73 per cent, with a notable 15.38 per cent increase in cement production. 

    In services, the overall growth was 0.82 per cent. Wholesale and retail trade, reliant on the output of agriculture, manufacturing, and imports, was estimated at 3.05 per cent due to positive growth in agriculture and industry.  

    Transport grew by 1.7 per cent, based on quarterly data. Information & Communication, previously negative, showed a growth of 2.4 per cent, primarily due to a low base and quarterly information received from sources. 

    The finance and insurance industry reported a growth of -12.79 per cent, driven by a decline in the output of insurance companies and brokers, along with high growth in the deflator.  

    Public administration reported -16.65 per cent growth in the quarter, with high deflators contributing to a decline in constant prices.  

    Negative growth in education and human health and social work activities was largely influenced by a decrease in government budget data along with a high deflator. 

  • Output of Pakistan’s main industries declines by over 10%

    Output of Pakistan’s main industries declines by over 10%

    The economic landscape of Pakistan has faced a notable setback, with the Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) output experiencing a decline of 10.26 per cent during the fiscal year 2022–23 when compared to the same period in 2021–22. This concerning information has been revealed by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), shedding light on the current state of the country’s industrial sector.

    The provisional Quantum Index numbers of the large-scale manufacturing industries (QIM) further underscore this decline. Specifically, the LSMI output took a significant hit in June 2023, plummeting by 14.96 per cent compared to June 2022. However, there is a glimmer of hope, as the output experienced a slight uptick of 0.98 per cent in comparison to May 2023.

    Diving into the specifics, the LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) for June 2023 has been estimated at 112.21, while the QIM for the period of July–June 2022–23 stands at 114.83. These numbers provide a quantitative overview of the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector during this time frame.

    The foundation for these indices lies in data provided by several key agencies, including the OCAC, Ministry of Industries and Production, Ministry of Commerce, and Provincial Bureau of Statistics (BoS). Their collaboration has enabled the creation of the provisional quantum indices of LSMI for June 2023, based on the 2015–16 base year.

    Various industries have played a role in shaping this decline, with notable contributors including food (-1.14 per cent), tobacco (-0.65 per cent), textiles (-3.65 per cent), garments (2.79 per cent), petroleum products (-0.89 per cent), chemicals (-0.52 per cent), pharmaceuticals (-1.85 per cent), cement (-0.86 per cent), iron and steel products (-0.24 per cent), electrical equipment (-0.54 per cent), and automobiles (-2.21 per cent).

    Analysing the production trends over a larger period, July–June 2022–23, as compared to July–June 2021–22, reveals a mixed picture. While there have been increases in production for wearing apparel, furniture, and other manufacturing (football), there have also been notable decreases in food, tobacco, textile, coke, and petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, non-metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, automobiles, and other transport equipment.

    Industries that demonstrated growth during the July-June period include wearing apparel (27.16 per cent), leather products (1.29 per cent), furniture (35.51 per cent), and other manufacturing (football) (28.99 per cent). However, sectors such as food (6.90 per cent), beverages (6.43 per cent), tobacco (28.36 per cent), textiles (18.68 per cent), and many others have faced declines, indicating a complex and multifaceted economic situation.

    In particular, the petroleum products industry has witnessed a substantial decline of 13.39 per cent during July–June 2022–23. High-speed diesel and furnace oil also experienced negative growth, with decreases of 17.09 per cent and 14.65 per cent, respectively. On the other hand, jet fuel oil managed to buck the trend with a growth rate of 6.63 per cent, suggesting a nuanced narrative within the energy sector.

    Cement production, a crucial indicator of construction and infrastructure activity, also faced a decline of 13.67 per cent during July–June 2022–23, highlighting potential challenges in these sectors.

    As Pakistan navigates through these economic fluctuations, stakeholders and policymakers will need to closely analyse the contributing factors to these declines and strategize effectively to bolster the country’s manufacturing sector, ensuring sustainable growth and resilience in the face of challenges.

  • We’re not shocked: Salaried class pays 200% more tax than exporters, retailers

    We’re not shocked: Salaried class pays 200% more tax than exporters, retailers

    In the fiscal year 2022-23, Pakistan’s salaried class emerged as the leading contributor to the nation’s income tax, making a substantial contribution of Rs264.3 billion. Astonishingly, this amount was nearly 200 per cent higher than the combined income tax paid by the country’s exporters and largely undertaxed retailers.

    Data collected and released by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) unveiled that salaried individuals paid a total of Rs264.3 billion in taxes during the fiscal year, marking an impressive increase of over Rs75 billion or 40 per cent compared to the previous year. This rise was attributed to the imposition of up to a 35 per cent tax rate on their earnings.

    Ranked as the fourth-largest contributor to withholding taxes, following contractors, bank depositors, and importers, the salaried class has faced increased taxation in the latest budget. Despite grappling with this added burden alongside historically high inflation rates, the government once again raised taxes on salaried individuals earning more than Rs200,000 per month in the recent budget. In a surprising move, around 5,000 retailers were relieved from stricter registration conditions.

    It is noteworthy that during the preceding fiscal year, the FBR managed to collect over Rs2 trillion through withholding taxes, accounting for 61 per cent of the total income tax generated in the same period. However, concerns were raised over the ease of collecting withholding taxes, especially from non-filers at double rates, which has become a reliable revenue source for the FBR.

    The Salaried Class Alliance expressed apprehension over the prioritisation of additional taxation on existing taxpayers while allowing the informal sector to thrive. The highest income tax collections came from contractors, savings account holders, importers, salaried individuals, non-filers’ electricity bills, telephone & mobile phone users, and dividend income. According to Express Tribune, other significant contributors included taxes on property transactions, exports, foreign income fees, brokerage commissions, and car registrations.

    Comparatively, provisional figures revealed that exporters and retailers combined paid Rs175 billion less in taxes compared to the salaried class. Despite earning $27.7 billion during the last fiscal year, exporters contributed only Rs74 billion in taxes. Although their tax contribution increased by 17.4 per cent from the previous year, it did not match the rise in their income in rupee terms. Retailers, subject to a 0.5 per cent advance tax on sales, contributed a mere Rs15.6 billion, reflecting the lowest contribution among income groups. Surprisingly, despite accounting for approximately 19 per cent of the economy, retailers and wholesalers only contributed 0.4 per cent to the total income tax collection.

    The approach of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) came under criticism for disproportionately burdening the salaried class, which lacks representation in the corridors of power, unlike exporters and retailers.

    Lastly, tax collection from contractors and service providers reached an impressive Rs391 billion in the last fiscal year, marking the largest single-income tax collection head over which the FBR has no control. Additionally, profits on debt witnessed a remarkable 106 per cent increase, amounting to Rs320 billion, reflecting higher interest rates and increased savings. Importers also contributed significantly, paying Rs290 billion in income tax on various types of imports, ranking as the third-largest contributor to withholding taxes.

  • High prices lead to 79% drop in new car sales in June 2023

    High prices lead to 79% drop in new car sales in June 2023

    The automobile industry of Pakistan experienced a severe blow in the fiscal year 2022-23, with car sales plummeting by 56 per cent to a mere 126,879 units, according to data shared by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) on Tuesday. This significant decline can be attributed to various factors, including the non-availability of completely knocked down kits (CKDs), exorbitant car prices, a surge in auto financing, and the reduced purchasing power of buyers.

    In June 2023, the monthly sales took a substantial hit, dropping by 79 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching a meager 6,034 units. However, it is worth noting that the sales in June were 10 per cent higher when compared to the sales in May.

    Among the car manufacturers, Honda Atlas Car (HCAR) witnessed the most notable increase in sales, with a month-on-month surge of 253 per cent to 307 units in June. This growth can be attributed to the lower sales base in the previous month and the availability of necessary car parts.

    Pak Suzuki, on the other hand, experienced a modest month-on-month growth of 2 per cent in June, with sales reaching 3,009 units. The surge in Bolan sales by 67 per cent contributed to this increase. However, the company’s bookings took a significant hit, plunging by 57 per cent to 65,364 units in the fiscal year 2022-23.

    Indus Motor Company, responsible for assembling Toyota cars, observed a 7 per cent increase in bookings on a month-on-month basis, reaching 1,846 units in June. Nonetheless, the company’s total car sales for the fiscal year 2022-23 amounted to 31,104 units, reflecting a decline of 58 per cent year-on-year.

    Hyundai Nishat Motor witnessed an 11 per cent month-on-month increase in sales, with the sales of Tucson surging by 61 per cent to 313 units and Elantra sales increasing by 28 per cent to 88 units in June.

    Shifting focus to the tractor segment, Millat Tractors (MTL) experienced a 42 per cent month-on-month increase in bookings, reaching 2,136 units in June. Conversely, Al Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) recorded sales of 854 units, marking a decline of 57 per cent. Overall, the total tractor industry sales for the fiscal year 2022-23 amounted to 30,942 units, representing a decrease of 48 per cent due to factors such as floods, plant shutdowns, lower consumer buying power, and higher prices.

    Looking ahead, the high interest rates and the significant increase in auto prices resulting from the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the dollar are expected to continue negatively impacting auto sales in the fiscal year 2024. Furthermore, restrictions on opening letters of credit (LCs) for importing CKDs by auto assemblers may lead to lower plant capacity utilisation and, in extreme cases, plant shutdowns across the industry.