Tag: Fiscal Year 2024-25

  • IMF predicts modest 3.5% growth for Pakistan amid global economic uncertainty

    IMF predicts modest 3.5% growth for Pakistan amid global economic uncertainty

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a 3.5 per cent growth rate for Pakistan’s economy in the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), slightly below the government’s target of 3.6 per cent.

    This comes after Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.4 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24, missing the government’s target of 3.5 per cent.

    Pakistan’s economic challenges are compounded by chronic mismanagement, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions, and severe flooding in 2022.

    The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) update warns of modest global growth over the next two years, influenced by cooling activity in the US, stabilization in Europe, and stronger consumption and exports from China, but significant risks remain.

    Globally, the IMF has maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.2 per cent and slightly increased its 2025 forecast to 3.3 per cent. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has expressed concern over these tepid growth rates. The US growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 2.6 per cent, reflecting slower consumption, while the 2025 forecast remains at 1.9 per cent due to a cooling labor market and moderated spending.

    The IMF has raised China’s 2024 growth forecast to 5.0 per cent, reflecting a rebound in private consumption and strong exports, but recent data showing lower-than-expected GDP growth poses a downside risk.

    The IMF also highlighted persistent risks to inflation due to high services prices and wage growth in labor-intensive sectors, alongside potential trade and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate price pressures. Additionally, the IMF warned of the impact of economic policy shifts from upcoming elections, which could lead to increased protectionism and fiscal irresponsibility.

    The IMF advised policymakers to restore price stability, gradually ease monetary policy, rebuild fiscal buffers, and implement policies to promote trade and productivity growth.

  • Budget 2024-25: Pakistan Stock Exchange proposes tax reforms for economic growth

    Budget 2024-25: Pakistan Stock Exchange proposes tax reforms for economic growth

    Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has forwarded a series of significant tax proposals to both the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) for potential inclusion in the upcoming federal budget for the fiscal year 2024-25.

    These proposed measures are designed to not only bolster revenue but also to incentivise the allocation of resources towards sectors of the economy that are both productive and officially documented. This move is deemed critical for fostering economic growth and generating employment opportunities across Pakistan.

    Notably, PSX has experienced a marked upswing in its performance, largely attributed to recent stability measures implemented within the broader macroeconomic landscape. In the outgoing year alone, the market capitalisation has surged by nearly Rs4 trillion, signifying a substantial boost to economic prosperity.

    Furthermore, foreign investments totaling approximately $132 million have flowed into the country through the stock market since July 2023, underscoring the significance of the stock market in attracting foreign capital.

    It is imperative that both the Ministry of Finance and the FBR carefully evaluate the proposals put forth by PSX to ensure that the stock market remains a vital contributor to economic growth, tax revenues, foreign investment inflows, and the formalisation of the economy. This strategic move is crucial for sustaining the positive momentum witnessed in both the capital market and broader economic recovery efforts.

    PSX stresses the importance of prioritising comprehensive documentation of all economic activities, with capital markets representing one of the most meticulously documented sectors within the economy. A robust capital market ecosystem not only aligns with key economic and social objectives but also serves as a catalyst for expanding the taxpayer base, augmenting savings and investment rates, and mitigating wealth disparities.

    To realise these overarching objectives, investors necessitate a conducive and predictable tax regime. As such, Pakistan Stock Exchange has articulated a range of proposals to the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Board of Revenue, all aimed at fostering a favorable environment for investment and economic growth in the fiscal year 2024-25.

  • Pakistan expected to increase petroleum levy to get IMF loan 

    Pakistan expected to increase petroleum levy to get IMF loan 

    Pakistan has reportedly provided assurances to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding an augmentation of the petroleum levy in the fiscal year 2024–25, aligning with its intentions to embark on a new loan programme. 

    According to documentation cited by sources within the finance ministry, Pakistan has committed to elevating the petroleum levy to Rs1,065 billion in FY2024–25, anticipating a revision of the current levy target from Rs869 billion to Rs918 billion.  

    The attainment of the revised target is contingent upon an uptick in the consumption of petroleum products. 

    The sources additionally revealed that the caretaker government would have implemented a Presidential Ordinance if adjustments were to be made to the current petroleum levy target. 

    Earlier revelations indicate that Pakistan is poised to secure another financial assistance package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) subsequent to the conclusion of the existing standby agreement. 

    The caretaker government has initiated consultations in preparation for the forthcoming IMF programme. 

    Sources have indicated that talks between the government and the IMF for the new loan programme are likely to commence this month.  

    Finance ministry officials underscored the commitment of the elected government to advance the measures established by the caretaker government.