According to statistics provided by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday, the current account deficit decreased 68.13 per cent year over year to $0.57 billion in October.
In comparison to September, when it stood at $0.36 billion, the deficit jumped by 56.2 per cent, reaching its highest level since April 2021.
According to the figures, the deficit for the first four months of the current fiscal year was $2.8 billion, down 46.82 per cent from $5.3 billion from July to October 2021.
According to the central bank, “continued import drop helped improve the current account imbalance.”
When compared to the same quarter in FY22, imports fell by $2.7 billion (11.6 per cent) and exports increased by $0.2 billion (2.6 per cent).
The current account deficit increased month over month despite a remark made last week by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar that it was anticipated to be below $0.4 billion.
Dar said that the deficit was being closely watched, managed, and handled for the good of the nation.
“The current account deficit was at $316m in September and expected to be below $400m in October,” he said, adding, “If this continues at the same pace, it will be around $5-6bn for the year, (while) the projected was $12bn.”
The deficit was not at a worrying level, the finance minister stressed.
Pakistan had a huge current account deficit of $17.3 billion, or an average of $1.44 billion per month, in the preceding fiscal year.
The federal government has approved the release of imported goods with a penalty surcharge of 100 per cent of assessed value that arrived at the ports after June 30.
The federal government has reportedly permitted the release of all imported products and imposed fines of up to 100 per cent on goods that had arrived at ports by the end of July notwithstanding limitations.
Finance Minister Miftah Ismail made the announcement during a news conference, noting that the restrictions were put in place in response to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) requirements.
Vehicles, mobile phones, home appliances, and other property may now be released with a 100 per cent penalty surcharge.
Other imported items were permitted with payment of a premium of up to 35 per cent, according to the announcement. Items received after June 30 and up to July 31 will be released with a penalty surcharge of 25 per cent.
Three months after the limitation was put in place, the federal government earlier on August 18 relaxed the ban on the importation of luxury and non-essential goods.
Pakistan customs department has seized illegal goods worth approximately Rs60 million in separate incidents over the past week, indicating that the campaign against the smuggling of contraband goods into and out of Pakistan is in full swing.
The Exports Collectorate prevented an attempt to smuggle a sizable amount of drugs into Australia. The Exports Examination-PICT team has made a drug seizure of 47 kilogrammes of ice. Officials reported that Fida Hussain, a suspect, was detained by Customs authorities after they registered a case, according to Express Tribune.
The Enforcement Collectorate Karachi team reportedly stopped two oil tankers close to the Mochko checkpoint and found 30,000 liters of Iranian diesel that had been smuggled. The seized tankers and smuggled diesel are estimated to be worth a total of Rs27.5 million.
Another incident involved a trailer truck that was loaded with urea and was headed for Karachi when it was illegally crossed into Balochistan by the Enforcement Karachi at the Mochko checkpoint.
Deputy Commissioner Keamari has received the truck and seized urea for further legal action. The truck hauling urea is estimated to be worth Rs29 million.
Preliminary EU-harmonised statistics indicated that inflation in France surged more than projected in May to a new high, putting additional pressure on President Emmanuel Macron before upcoming legislative elections.
Consumer prices rose 0.7 per cent in May, for a 12-month inflation rate of 5.8 per cent, up from 5.4 per cent in the last month and the highest rate since France started working on European Union methodology to generate the numbers in the early 1990s, as per the INSEE statistics.
Inflation was predicted to grow to 5.6 per cent on average, considering a poll of eight economists in a report by Reuters.
High inflation is at the top of France’s political agenda, and following the elections, Macron’s government has promised a new wave of measures to protect buying power.
Apart from Malta, France has managed to maintain the inflation lower than the rest of the EU due to a 25 billion euro package of measures that includes, among other things, hefty price limits on gas and electricity.
Annual inflation in France, as measured by the national consumer price index, climbed to 5.2 per cent in May from 4.8 per cent in April, reaching its highest level since September 1985, according to INSEE.
This month, economists surveyed by Reuters projected an average growth rate of 5.0 per cent. In France, the national index is regularly monitored, whilst outside the country, the EU-harmonised index is used to assess inflation rates among euro-area nations.
Airlift Technologies, a national grocery delivery service, has laid off 31 per cent of its workforce.
The company posted a statement on its official LinkedIn account confirming the layoff of its workforce; “In the light of the significant downturn in global capital markets, Airlift is undertaking a strategic realignment to reduce the surface area of operations and to increase focus in key areas that drive sustainability and profitability.”
“The decision to part ways with talented teammates has been incredibly challenging for the company. For impacted teammates, Airlift stands committed to providing financial and placement support to help find new roles,” the statement read.
Quick commerce startup Airlift closes down all cities apart from Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, lays off 31% staff. pic.twitter.com/hSM8Cz3kYE
Usman Gul, the 33-year-old co-founder, and CEO commented on the company’s decision to permanently shut down, saying, “I think if the lens of change is ‘Did Airlift offer great returns to investors?’ then yes, regrettably, it was unsuccessful. If you’re talking about bringing Pakistan into a new reality or altering the entire ecology, then by that yardstick of success, we’ve come a long way,” Gul told Rest of World.
“In many ways, Airlift raised the bar of ambition for Pakistani startups in a big way. Our teams at Airlift redefined the standard of execution, strategy, building a world-class culture, developing a cutting-edge product, raising sizable fundraising rounds,” Gul continued.
What is the point of raising the greatest series B in the nation if the business fails 11 months later? Gul believed that these were improper inquiries when questioned about the $85 million that Airlift blew through in less than one year. He said that the appropriate questions to ask were: “What enabled Airlift to raise $100 million-plus in three years? That’s never happened in Pakistan before. What did this team do differently?”
Airlift was started in 2019 by Usman Gul, Ahmed Ayub, Awaab Khaakwany, Meher Farrukh, Muhammad Owais, and Zohaib Ali as a mass-transit option that connected consumers with buses at reduced costs. Due to the pandemic, Airlift’s transportation operations were halted in March 2020. During the covid pandemic, the company then pivoted its business plan and launched Airlift Express, a grocery delivery service with $10 million in investment. Airlift, last year in August, secured a mega-round of funding of $85 million dollars.
A former Airlift employee described the layoff as “shocking, unexpected, and heartbreaking.”
WHAT FINANCIAL EXPERTS THINK HAPPENED AT AIRLIFT
Ariba Shahid, Financial Journalist at Profit Magazine and DealStreetAsia, while talking to The Current about the layoffs at Airlift, said, “While downsizing is sad considering people lose their livelihoods, sometimes young startups need to scale back operations, recalibrate and start differently or fresh,” adding “In order to do so, they sometimes downsize. There is nothing wrong in doing so. I don’t think any business downsizes unless it’s absolutely necessary.”
Taking about the reason behind the layoffs Ariba added, “There are a number of ways to look at it. One likelihood is that Airlift’s funding was contingent on it attaining milestones. So maybe, they did not get the entire $85 million.”
“The other scenario is that they burned through approximately $10 million a month in customer acquisition costs and expansion. It is difficult for consumers to change their consumption pattern and move onto quick commerce. It also costs a lot to expand and grow, especially internationally, like Airlift did in South Africa. The macroeconomic environment with rising inflation and diminishing purchasing power makes it even more difficult.”
“Airlift was one of the bigger names in the ecosystem. The same way Airlift was used as an example while raising funds, it may be seen as a warning sign. However, the global liquidity crunch plays a bigger role at this point in time, in addition to Pakistan’s weakening macroeconomic sentiments.”
“There is no right or wrong way to run a startup at this point because the ecosystem is very nascent. There are no examples locally to follow. However in order to succeed startups need to ensure they are clean, transparent, do not fudge numbers, accept realistic valuations, stop obsessing over large rounds, and know when to stop blitz-scaling,” she added, talking about Pakistani startups.
While answering a question about the situation of Pakistan’s job market Ariba said, “Too soon to say that but yes, one can expect more layoffs across industries considering working capital will be more expensive, political instability, low investment inflows.”
Aitlift’s Lahore office
Dr Aqdas Afzal, Program Director and Assistant Professor of Economics, Habib University while talking to The Current about the possible reason behind the layoffs said, “The reason is not related to the Pakistani market, there is an economic downturn in the entire world. The inflation in UK and US is highest in last 40 years.”
He continued by adding that, “the main input of Airlift’s delivery is fuel and as considering the fuel inflation, they have withdrawn their services from those markets and cities from where they don’t get much sales and find it difficult to drive “sustainability and profitability.”
“I don’t think Pakistani startups are doing anything wrong, as we have seen they have been able to get get a lot of seed money.”
He further said, “In the coming days you will see a lot more startups booming in Pakistan.”
“The government needs to provide reliable, fast speed and affordable internet, because it is slowly becoming the weakest link for Pakistani startups.”
“I don’t think that Pakistan’s job market is collapsing,” said Afzal while answering a question about Pakistan’s job market.
He added, “We are in low value-added end of the spectrum in terms of freelancing skills and we should see if our educational institutions are teaching the level of coding that freelancers around the world are doing.”
Aitlift’s Lahore office
WHAT LAID-OFF EMPLOYEES HAVE TO SAY
Airlift released a database of the names of113 staffers who were abruptly terminated from their positions and were then ‘open to work.’ The employees listed in the database served in various departments of the cash-strapped venture, including operations, human resources, customer service, rider support specialists, and several software engineers, that were based in Pakistani cities including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Hyderabad, and Peshawar, with the remainder in South Africa.
“The layoff news shocked the entire workforce as we had no idea the company would announce a massive layoff along with closing key warehouses in different cities,” an employee at Airlift Head Office Lahore, told The Current, “I was aware that the stock market was collapsing dramatically, with some well-known corporations laying off a large number of staff, but I had no idea that the capital market’s volatility would have such an immediate impact on Airlift.”
According to another insider, the company was unable to generate sufficient profit to entice international investors, which is why layoffs had to be done.
Khan revealed that he is looking for work and has undergone three job interviews so far. “After the news of the Airlift went viral on social media, I was approached by a couple of companies and individuals, although I have yet to receive job confirmation,” he claimed.
“I have had a wonderful time at the Airlift. The management took good care of the overall staff. The payouts were never delayed,” Husnain Raza, who was employed as a Rider Operations Specialist at Airlift barely a year ago, told The Current. “The company had to take this horrendous step or it could’ve been dissolved.”
Ex-Operations Lead at Airlift Faisalabad, stated that he is not concerned since the company has offered to compensate the employees who were laid off without notice with 1-2 months of salary. “I assume I’ll find another job until then,” he asserted.
The Current has reached out to the founders of Airlift for a comment on why the layoffs took place and about the future of the company. We are still waiting for a comment and until we get one, here is the statement issued by the company on the dismissal of their staff.
GLOBAL IMPACTOF THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
The impact of the global economy is not just being seen at Airlift or in Pakistan.
Cutbacks, contract terminations, and layoffs have impacted at least 5,600 startup employees since the beginning of 2022 at a number of unicorns, global tech companies in India, and growth-stage startups.
Startups like Unacademy, Furlenco, and many others have cut back and downsized in order to improve profitability. Better.com, a mortgage technology company based in the United States, has also asked employees to sign voluntary separation agreements. These layoffs occurred at Better.com’s India operations, where another 920 employees were let go earlier this month, following a total of over 3,000 laid off by April.
Unacademy, the edtech unicorn, laid off over 1,000 employees and shut down its online education platform, PrepLadder, in April 2022. More than 800 employees at BYJU’s-owned WhiteHat Jr were told to resign because they refused to work from the office.
Furthermore, Cars24, a marketplace, laid off workers in order to cut costs and move toward automation. In this downsizing, the unicorn may lay off up to 600 employees soon.
Alongside startups, some big names, such as Netflix, have cut staff this year, with some blaming the COVID-19 pandemic and others faulting ‘overhiring’ during periods of speedy growth. In 2022, Robinhood, Glossier, and Better are just a few of the technology firms that have significantly reduced their staff numbers.
The capital markets have taken a beating in 2022, and this has filtered down to the private sector. Fears about inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical issues have all contributed to a volatile financial market.
Startups, particularly those that profited from a pandemic growth that is now slowing, are beginning to feel the strain as well. Valuations have begun to fall, especially at the later phase, and entrepreneurs say it is far more challenging to raise new funding in such a situation.
A multitude of companies that experienced pandemic-related surges are experiencing a correction as a result of a variety of factors, including rising inflation, economic distress, war, and shifting consumer taste buds. Companies such as Meta and Twitter have publicly announced hiring freezes, and Snap confirmed this week that it is slowing hiring as revenue targets are missed.
If a company is bleeding money, it will most likely begin to lay off employees, preserving only those who are required to work to retain the business’s level of operations. If the company dissolves, the remaining workers may be laid off as well.
Among the most likely causes for layoffs is that the company is trying to cut costs in some way. This could be because the company needs to pay off debts, fewer sales or the company no longer has the financial backing of investors like Airlift.
As technological advancements and automation grow common in businesses, employers sometimes lay off employees in order to cut costs and reduce position redundancy. Moreover, if the employee satisfies certain requirements and is prepared to make the change, the organisation may commit to finding another role for them and transferring them to the position.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) revealed that the weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the joint consumption group fell 0.26 per cent for the week ending May 26, owing primarily to a drop in the prices of vital food products.
The consolidated index was 174.62 on May 19, 2022, compared to 175.08 on May 19, 2021, while the SPI increased 16.97 per cent year on year when the index was 149.29 on May 27, 2021.
The minor price reductions in essential items may be a sign that the government is finally gaining control of the country’s skyrocketing inflation, which has afflicted the poor strata.
Here are the items that witnessed a decrease or increase in their prices:
Decrement
Wheat Flour (12.25 per cent), Chillies Powdered (6.48 per cent), Chicken (4.41 per cent), Garlic (2.99 per cent), and non-food item LPG (0.43 per cent) were among the commodities that saw a decline in their rates on a WoW premise out of the 51 supervised items, with a cumulative effect of (-1.00 per cent) into the total SPI for the blended group of goods (-0.26 per cent).
Increment
27 items elevated in the week, including potatoes (8.43 per cent), tomatoes (6.33 per cent), eggs (6.29 per cent), rice basmati broken (4.71 per cent), mustard oil (4.16 per cent), pulse masaoor (3.93 per cent), milk fresh (3.47 per cent), onions (3.03 per cent), pulse gramme (2.58 per cent), curd (2.35 per cent), washing soap (2.13 per cent), cooked beef (1.55 per cent), beef (1.42 per cent), pulse mash (1.33 per cent), cooked daal (1.24 per cent). While 19 commodities’ prices remained stable.
Pakistan Customs has intensified goods inspection at all international airports to prohibit the smuggling of recently banned commodities. The federal government prohibited the items in SRO No. 598(I)/2022, issued May 19, 2022, by revising the Import Policy Order, 2022.
This 24-hour monitoring at international terminals to prevent smuggling has already resulted in multiple confiscation of these items disguised as legitimate passenger baggage.
Banned commodities like foodstuff, fruits, sanitary wares, used mobile phones, and branded shoes were found in commercial quantities during scanning and inspection at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi on May 23, 2022.
The aforementioned items were detained/seized in accordance with Sector 168 of the Customs Act of 1969 for violating SRO No. 598(I)/2022 (Import Policy Order, 2022) and Sections 16 and 139 of the Customs Act of 1969.
While applauding Pakistan Customs’ efforts, the Chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) reaffirmed the FBR’s unwavering determination to strengthen policing strategies at all airports, seaports, and land border stations to ensure the avoidance of trafficking of goods, including newly banned items.
Finance Minister Miftah Ismail and FBR Chairman, on the other hand, have issued instructions not to bother genuine passengers bringing in goods in non-commercial/small quantities for personal use, and to assist such passengers at airports to the greatest extent permitted by law.
People in Pakistan were outraged by the Customs move, particularly those who had been thoroughly scanned and shared their side of the story on social media.
Following an emergency meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised interest rates by 250 basis points, as mounting political uncertainty and rising worldwide oil prices threaten to drive the country into a full-fledged economic catastrophe.
The key rate is now 12.25 per cent, as per the latest statement released by the central bank on Thursday. According to the report, this makes the real rate “mildly positive” and will assist maintain external and price stability.
1/3 In an emergency meeting today, MPC decided to raise policy rate by 250bps to 12.25%. This strong and proactive policy response was necessitated by a deterioration in outlook for inflation and increase in risks to external stability since last meeting. https://t.co/VSRwxRQJhY
The judgment came a few hours before the Supreme Court was due to rule on the constitutionality of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s disputed move to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. Pakistan may find it difficult to persuade the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant a much-needed loan tranche due to the political limbo.
At the recent briefing, SBP governor, Reza Baqir, said, “We thought it’s important to take decisive action”. He added that the body does not intend to do anything else.
The central bank claimed that intensified domestic political turmoil contributed to the rupee’s 5 per cent loss and caused a jump in local bond rates, as well as Pakistan’s Eurobond yields and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. Oil prices are likely to remain elevated, and the Federal Reserve of the United States is expected to compress sooner than expected, according to the report.
The PKR broke all records on Thursday, selling at more than Rs189 per dollar in intraday trading in the interbank market, continuing a slump that has witnessed its decline of more than 10 per cent since March 4.
Pakistan’s political instability, in addition to money from the IMF, is causing delays in a planned $1 billion green bond offering. A refinancing from China is also expected; the repayment in recent weeks caused Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves to plummet to their lowest level since records began in 2010.
In a meeting last month, SBP cautioned that it might convene earlier than planned to avoid a crisis. It revised its average inflation prediction for the fiscal year ending in June from 9 per cent to little more than 11 per cent.
Pakistan’s exports increased by 17.3 per cent in March 2021 to $2.773 billion, up from $2.365 billion in March 2021 and 25 per cent in the last nine months.
The Prime Minister’s Adviser on Commerce and Investment, Abdul Razak Dawood, said that exports increased by 25 per cent to $23.332 billion in the July-March fiscal year 2021-2022, compared to $18.688 billion in the same period last year, implying a $4.644 billion upsurge.
On the other hand, according to preliminary data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), exports fell 2 per cent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis to $2.77 billion in March 2022, down from $2.82 billion in February 2022.
Dawood said in a tweet, “We are glad to share that Pakistan’s exports for Mar-2022 grew by 17.3 per cent to $2.773 billion as compared to $2.365 billion Mar-2021. For Jul-Mar 2022, our exports grew by 25 per cent to $23.332 billion as compared to $18.688 billion in Jul-Mar 2021. This is an increase $4.644 billion”.
While talking about the target for exports he added that “We expect to achieve our yearly target. The import figures would be shared when finalised by the PBS. We would like to congratulate our exporters for maintaining the momentum of exports under these testing times in the global market”.
Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) decreased by 78.46 per cent to $545 million in February from $2.531 billion in January, owing primarily to a steep drop in imports.
Surprisingly, the CAD crossed the $12 billion level in the first eight months of FY22, showing no signs of improvement in the external account. The CAD was only $34 million in February 2021.
