Tag: growth forecast

  • Pakistan to receive written guarantee from UAE for $1 billion loan

    Pakistan to receive written guarantee from UAE for $1 billion loan

    Pakistan is making progress towards securing a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with a $1 billion financing pledge from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) expected this week. Sources suggest that the UAE will provide written confirmation of the financing to the IMF through the Finance Secretary during the current annual meeting in Washington.

    To secure external financing for this fiscal year, the IMF has asked Pakistan to seek assurances from friendly countries and multilateral partners for funding its balance of payment gap. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s $2 billion pledge, the agreement with the IMF is also contingent on the UAE’s $1 billion commitment.

    According to sources within the Ministry of Finance, the UAE has finalised the agreement, and as soon as Pakistan receives a written guarantee from the Gulf state, the IMF will also be informed. This development follows requests from Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Finance Minister to UAE officials to complete the necessary prerequisites for the Fund.

    Pakistan is currently facing one of the most severe economic crises in its history, with consumer prices at a record high and interest rates raised to an all-time high. Due to a dollar shortage, the IMF has revised its growth forecast for Pakistan to 0.5% from the earlier estimate of 2%, causing supply chain disruptions and companies to halt production.

    The IMF is also assessing the coalition government’s proposed fuel discount for lower-income groups, which is planned to be financed by raising fuel prices for wealthier motorists. The finance minister has assured that the IMF has received all the required information.

    The finance minister had cancelled his scheduled in-person meetings with IMF officials in Washington but has repeatedly claimed that the staff-level agreement with the lender would be reached soon. Islamabad has been hosting an IMF mission since January to negotiate policy measures and secure $1.1 billion in funding for the cash-strapped economy, which is on the verge of collapse.

    The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package approved by the IMF in 2019, which analysts argue is crucial for Pakistan to avoid defaulting on external payment obligations. The deal will also unlock other financing options to shore up Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to four weeks’ worth of import cover and help resolve the balance of payment crisis.

  • World Bank lowers Pakistan’s growth forecast tighter financial conditions

    World Bank lowers Pakistan’s growth forecast tighter financial conditions

    Pakistan’s current-year growth forecast has been significantly reduced by the World Bank due to tighter financial conditions and limited fiscal space. The country’s economy is now expected to grow only 0.4 per cent in the current year, compared to the October 2022 forecast of 2 per cent growth.

    This bleaker forecast assumes that an agreement is reached with the International Monetary Fund for bailout funds. Pakistan’s fiscal year runs from July to June, and the country expects its economy to grow 2 per cent in FY23, although the country’s central bank chief has warned that this forecast could face downward pressure.

    Pakistan has been in economic turmoil for months, with an acute balance of payments crisis. Talks with the IMF to secure $1.1 billion in funding as part of a $6.5 billion bailout agreed upon in 2019 have not yet yielded fruit. Lower economic output and high prices in Pakistan have led to stampedes and looting at flour distribution centres set up across the country. The World Bank attributed the greater food insecurity for South Asia’s poor to elevated global and domestic food prices.

    The World Bank also lowered its 2023 regional growth forecast to 5.6 per cent from 6.1 per cent in October, citing rising interest rates and uncertainty in financial markets as putting downward pressure on the region’s economies. Most countries have raised interest rates at a rapid pace since the war in Ukraine last year led to choking supply chains and stoked inflation globally.

    Sri Lanka’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.3 per cent this year, reflecting the lasting impact of the macro debt crisis, with future growth prospects heavily dependent on debt restructuring and structural reforms. In January, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka’s economy could contract by 3.5 per cent or 4.0 per cent in 2023 after shrinking by 11 per cent last year.

    The World Bank also lowered its forecast for India’s economic growth in the current fiscal year to 6.3 per cent from 6.6 per cent, due to the expected negative impact of higher borrowing costs on consumption. The current fiscal year began on April 1.