Tag: IMF Review

  • December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    In December, inflation is expected to surpass the 30 per cent threshold, driven by the recent increase in gas prices and the persisting adverse base effect, which continues to impact the consumer price index (CPI).

    The headline inflation for December is projected to settle at approximately 30.11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 1.18 per cent month-on-month (MoM), in contrast to the previous month’s figures of 29.2 per cent YoY and 2.7 per cent MoM.

    This monthly inflation rate is significantly lower than the 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM.

    Consequently, the average yearly inflation for the first six months of FY24 is estimated to be 28.87 per cent YoY, compared to 25.05 per cent YoY in the same period of FY23.

    The surge in inflation can be attributed to the adverse base effect and the notable increase in gas prices, which were not fully realised in the previous month.

    Conversely, food inflation is expected to exhibit a marginal decrease of 0.29 per cent MoM, driven primarily by the decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes, chicken, and oil.

    Additionally, the transport index is forecast to undergo a 4 per cent MoM decrease, mainly due to the relief in petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices.

    Post-December, inflation is anticipated to decline at a relatively faster pace, supported by the favorable base effect, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and other administrative measures.

    The December spike is attributed to the lingering effects of the overdue gas price hike. Notably, unforeseen climate events, volatility in global commodity prices, especially oil, and external account pressures pose significant upside risks to the inflation outlook.

    Global oil prices are on the rise amid challenges in Red Sea shipping, potentially threatening the inflation outlook.

    Moreover, the successful completion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, coupled with additional loan programmes, remains crucial.

    The outstanding amount of $1.8 billion under the stand-by arrangement (SBA) is yet to be released.

    The accompanying chart illustrates the yearly inflation trajectory based on different MoM CPI scenarios. At 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, yearly inflation is projected to fall below the 22 per cent policy rate by February–March 2024.

    By the end of FY24, with 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, it is expected to decrease to 15.29 per cent and 19.37 per cent, respectively, a significant change from the previous month’s forecasts of 12.9 per cent and 17.5 per cent.

    Considering the last 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM, the real interest rate is anticipated to remain in negative territory by the end of FY24.

  • Govt maintains petrol price at Rs281.34, cuts diesel price by Rs7 per litre 

    Govt maintains petrol price at Rs281.34, cuts diesel price by Rs7 per litre 

    On Thursday, the caretaker government announced its decision to maintain the current petrol price at Rs281.34 per litre while implementing a reduction of Rs7 per litre for high-speed diesel (HSD) for the upcoming two weeks. 

    As per the official notification from the finance ministry, the revised price for high-speed diesel will be Rs289.71 per litre starting on December 1. 

    Additionally, the prices for kerosene and light diesel oil have decreased by Rs3.82 and Rs4.52, respectively. 

    Following these adjustments, kerosene will now be priced at Rs201.16 per litre, and light diesel oil will be available at Rs175.93 per litre. 

    This decision comes in response to factors such as an IMF review and the recent global decline in oil prices. 

    Notably, the postponement of a ministerial meeting by Opec+ (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia) to November 30 contributed to a midweek tumble in global oil prices. 

    Brent crude futures experienced a 0.4 per cent decline, down 37 cents to $80.21 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 0.4 per cent, down 29 cents to $75.25. 

  • Pakistan expects positive outcome in talks with IMF, eyes $700 million disbursement

    Pakistan expects positive outcome in talks with IMF, eyes $700 million disbursement

    Pakistan is optimistic about the successful completion of the initial review under the $3 billion standby arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

    According to reports, the ongoing negotiations, now in their final phase, are anticipated to culminate positively, marking a crucial milestone. 

    Commencing on Monday, policy-level discussions between Pakistani authorities and the IMF are scheduled to persist until November 15, spearheaded by Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar.  

    The Pakistani delegation, including key figures such as State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad and Federal Board of Revenue Chairman Malik Amjed Zubair Tiwan, along with representatives from the finance and energy ministries, has been actively engaged in the deliberations. Nathan Porter leads the IMF team in this dialogue. 

    During the latest session, the IMF delegation articulated their recommendations and requirements, while technical-level talks involved the sharing of pertinent economic data with the international lender’s team, according to The News.  

    Sources within the finance ministry assert that Pakistan has diligently fulfilled all stipulated conditions set forth by the IMF. 

    It is anticipated that the staff-level agreement will be finalised during the ongoing policy-level talks, paving the way for the disbursement of approximately $700 million to Pakistan upon the successful completion of the first review. 

    Earlier this month, the IMF review mission commended the Pakistani government for its commendable progress towards economic recovery, as stated by the finance ministry.  

    The IMF’s $3 billion loan programme, sanctioned in July, played a pivotal role in averting a sovereign debt default. The initial tranche of $1.2 billion was disbursed in July, with the remaining amount contingent on subsequent reviews. 

    Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar has unequivocally ruled out any requests to the IMF for an extension of the SBA programme’s timeframe or an increase in its size. 

  • Bank deposits in Pakistan hit all-time high, showing 17.80% increase in a day 

    Bank deposits in Pakistan hit all-time high, showing 17.80% increase in a day 

    In a statement released on Friday, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced that the country’s bank deposits had reached an all-time high.  

    On October 23, there was a notable increase of 17.80 per cent, amounting to Rs3,986 billion, compared to the figures on October 22. 

    According to the central bank, the total banking deposits for October 2023 reached a historic level of Rs26,000.398 billion. 

    Rupee expected to fall further 

    In other news, a Tresmark report suggests that the Pakistani rupee is anticipated to face pressure against the US dollar in the ongoing week until the completion of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) initial review of the country’s $3 billion loan programme.  

    The local currency experienced a depreciation of Rs2 or 0.60 per cent against the US dollar during the week, concluding at Rs287.03 on Friday.  

    It’s worth noting that the foreign exchange market was closed on Thursday due to a public holiday. 

    The IMF’s evaluation of Pakistan’s bailout package began on November 2, with expectations for the review to conclude by December 15. 

  • IMF review puts pressure on rupee as Pakistan negotiates loan tranche 

    IMF review puts pressure on rupee as Pakistan negotiates loan tranche 

    The Pakistani rupee is anticipated to face continued depreciation against the US dollar in the upcoming week due to heightened demand from importers outweighing the supply from exporters, according to analysts.

    The situation is further complicated by the visit of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation to Pakistan for a review mission, which typically results in increased volatility for the local currency.  

    The IMF’s review discussions with Pakistani authorities are expected to conclude on November 15, potentially leading to the disbursement of a second loan tranche of approximately $700 million from the IMF. 

    In the past week, the rupee experienced a 1.19 per cent decline against the US dollar in the interbank market, closing at 284.31 on Friday, compared to 280.95 at the beginning of the week. Export proceeds have slowed down, impacting the availability of dollars.  

    Additionally, new regulations in the forex market have limited banks’ ability to fund their nostros through buy-sell swaps, leading to higher forward premiums and challenges for importers in processing payments. 

    According to The News, the rupee is expected to stabilise around 285 for the coming week, with occasional fluctuations to 288 per US dollar. A potential recovery is also anticipated once the IMF completes its review. 

    Notably, there have been positive developments, such as a boost in exports to $2.7 billion in October and a decrease in consumer price index inflation from 31.4 per cent to 26.9 per cent.  

    These developments, along with a decrease in the Karachi interbank offered rate, suggest that interest rates have likely peaked in the short to medium term, which has positively impacted equity markets, with the KSE Index reaching an all-time high. 

    Equity traders are also optimistic about the IMF’s discussions with government stakeholders and the announcement of election dates. They are hoping for a resolution on circular debt, which has constrained many profitable companies in the index. 

  • IMF and Pakistan discuss circular debt and energy sector losses in virtual meeting

    IMF and Pakistan discuss circular debt and energy sector losses in virtual meeting

    Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently discussed the country’s energy sector losses and efforts to reduce circular debt during a virtual meeting. The government is committed to adjusting fuel prices and quarterly tariffs to eliminate circular debt accumulation.

    According to The News, a new plan called the Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP) was shared with the IMF. This plan involves revising fuel price adjustments and quarterly tariffs upward to counter circular debt growth. The IMF expressed concerns about the plan’s sustainability due to slower recoveries.

    The government was advised to create an effective strategy to tackle this issue. The meeting took place virtually on a technical level. The newly appointed Finance Minister, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, is expected to hold a virtual meeting with the IMF team soon.

    The IMF’s first review is scheduled for October or November and will be based on economic data from the initial quarter (July–September) of the current fiscal year.

    Pakistan and the IMF signed a $3 billion bailout package under the Standby Arrangement in July 2023. Pakistan has already received $1.2 billion, with two more reviews planned to release the remaining $1.8 billion by March or April 2024.