Tag: IMF SBA Program

  • State Bank of Pakistan maintains policy rate at 22% despite inflation concerns 

    State Bank of Pakistan maintains policy rate at 22% despite inflation concerns 

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) convened today to deliberate on the prevailing economic conditions and has resolved to maintain the policy rate at 22 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting. 

    This decision aligns with market expectations, as a majority of market participants were in agreement regarding the rate remaining unchanged. 

    The Monetary Policy Statement issued by the central bank indicates that the decision takes into consideration the impact of the recent increase in gas prices on November’s inflation, which exceeded the MPC’s earlier projections.  

    The Committee acknowledged the potential implications of this on the inflation outlook while also noting offsetting factors such as the recent decline in international oil prices and the improved availability of agricultural produce. 

    Additionally, the Committee conducted an assessment indicating that the real interest rate remains positive over a 12-month forward-looking horizon and anticipates a downward trajectory for inflation. 

    Key developments since the October meeting were considered by the MPC. Firstly, the successful completion of the staff-level agreement for the first review under the IMF SBA programme, which is expected to unlock financial inflows and enhance the SBP’s foreign exchange serves, 

    Secondly, the quarterly GDP growth for Q1–FY24 met the MPC’s expectations for a moderate economic recovery. 

    Lastly, consumer and business confidence surveys reflected positive sentiment improvements. Lastly, core inflation persists at elevated levels, showing a gradual reduction. 

    Considering these developments, the Committee determined that the existing monetary policy stance is conducive to achieving the inflation target of 5-7 per cent by the end of FY25. 

    The Committee emphasised that this assessment is contingent on the sustained implementation of targeted fiscal consolidation and the timely realisation of planned external inflows. 

  • Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan’s economy exhibited signs of recovery with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.13 per cent, marking a significant improvement from the 0.96 per cent recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. 

    These estimates gained approval during the 107th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting convened on the same day.  

    To align with the structural benchmarks outlined in the IMF-SBA program, PBS engaged in consultations with stakeholders and data providers. They presented revised GDP figures for both the fiscal year 2022-23 and the first quarter of 2023-24 to the NAC. 

    In a noteworthy development, the NAC also sanctioned the incorporation of quarterly national accounts into the country’s statistical system. 

    Revisiting the GDP figures for the fiscal year 2022-23, the growth rate has been revised to -0.17 per cent, a departure from the provisional report of 0.29 per cent. 

    Breaking down the growth by industry, the 107th NAC greenlit a sector-specific methodology for compiling quarterly GDP. This includes a series of quarterly growth rates for various industries spanning from the first quarter of 2016-17 to the first quarter of 2023, with 2015-16 serving as the base year. 

    For the first quarter of 2023-24, the agricultural sector exhibited growth of 5.06 per cent, the industrial sector 2.48 per cent, and services 0.82 per cent. 

    In agriculture, crops recorded a robust growth of 6.13 per cent, with a notable 11.16 per cent increase in important crops.  

    The expansion is attributed to a rise in the sowing area, particularly for rice, cotton, and maize, with increases of 21 per cent, 11 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively. Sugarcane saw an 11 per cent decline, but this was offset by growth in other major crops. 

    The industrial sector, which experienced a continuous decline in the preceding fiscal year except for a modest growth in the second quarter, reversed its trend in the first quarter of 2023-24, registering a growth of 2.48 per cent. Mining and quarrying posted a positive growth of 2.15 per cent, based on quarterly production in the mining sector.  

    Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) demonstrated growth of 0.93 per cent according to the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM). Construction industry growth was estimated at 1.73 per cent, with a notable 15.38 per cent increase in cement production. 

    In services, the overall growth was 0.82 per cent. Wholesale and retail trade, reliant on the output of agriculture, manufacturing, and imports, was estimated at 3.05 per cent due to positive growth in agriculture and industry.  

    Transport grew by 1.7 per cent, based on quarterly data. Information & Communication, previously negative, showed a growth of 2.4 per cent, primarily due to a low base and quarterly information received from sources. 

    The finance and insurance industry reported a growth of -12.79 per cent, driven by a decline in the output of insurance companies and brokers, along with high growth in the deflator.  

    Public administration reported -16.65 per cent growth in the quarter, with high deflators contributing to a decline in constant prices.  

    Negative growth in education and human health and social work activities was largely influenced by a decrease in government budget data along with a high deflator.