Tag: inflation

  • Sharp rise in petrol price drives weekly inflation up, worsening daily struggles for Pakistanis

    Sharp rise in petrol price drives weekly inflation up, worsening daily struggles for Pakistanis

    The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) in Pakistan has risen by 1.30 per cent compared to the previous week, intensifying the financial burden on the already struggling population. The nation is grappling with ever-depreciating financial resources as it faces a sharp increase in petroleum prices and food inflation.

    One of the major contributors to the rising costs is the persistent increase in petroleum and oil prices over the past year-and-a-half. This increase directly affects commuters who have to bear the brunt of higher transportation costs, making it more challenging for them to manage their daily expenses, particularly when it comes to purchasing essential goods like food items.

    Although the SPI has seen a significant decline since reaching its highest level of 48.35 per cent on May 4, the overall inflation remains a concern. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the current fiscal year to be 25.9 per cent, which is still high despite being lower than the 29.6 per cent recorded in 2022-23.

    According to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the SPI has witnessed a staggering 29.83 per cent jump compared to the same week last year. This increase followed the government’s decision to hike petrol and high-speed diesel prices by Rs19.95 and Rs19.90 per litre, as well as a substantial increase in the rate of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

    The outgoing government, whose constitutional term is about to expire on Aug 12, defended the decision to increase fuel prices, citing the recently reached $3 billion IMF deal as being in the national interest.

    The SPI, which covers 51 essential items, has seen prices of 23 items go up, 7 items go down, and 21 items remaining unchanged compared to the previous week. The largest week-on-week rise was observed in the prices of tomatoes, increasing by 16.85 per cent, followed by chillies powder (7.58 per cent), garlic (5.71 per cent), onions (5.50 per cent), powdered milk (5.17 per cent), eggs (3.86 per cent), and rice basmati broken (2.06 per cent).

    Looking at the year-on-year comparison, the prices of wheat flour have surged by a staggering 131.40 per cent, while rice basmati broken and rice Irri-6/9 have increased by 82.86 per cent and 72.73 per cent, respectively. This is alarming as wheat flour and rice are staple foods for the majority of the population, and such steep price hikes can exacerbate the existing nutritional deficiencies and lack of protein in the daily diet.

    Adding to the concern is the rising cost of pulses, lentils, chicken, eggs, potatoes, and other vegetables, which are crucial components of the daily diet. This trend points towards a looming food insecurity crisis in Pakistan.

    The situation is expected to worsen as Pakistan must implement the harsh IMF conditions, which revolve around higher prices of utilities and fuel. This will make it even more challenging for the inflation-hit people to sustain the required food intake, leading to further hardship for the already struggling population.

  • Govt hikes petrol and diesel prices by nearly Rs20 per litre

    Govt hikes petrol and diesel prices by nearly Rs20 per litre

    In a move to fulfill its commitment with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has announced a substantial increase in petrol and diesel prices. The revision has taken effect immediately today (August 1st), with petrol price rising by Rs19.95 per litre and diesel price climbing by Rs19.90 per litre.

    Here are the new petrol and diesel prices:

    Product Old prices New prices Increase
    Petrol Rs253 Rs272.95 Rs19.95
    Diesel Rs253.50 Rs273.40 Rs19.90

    Minister Dar stated that the price hike was necessary to comply with the IMF’s requirement to impose a petroleum development levy (PDL) on the rates. He mentioned that despite attempts to mitigate the impact on inflation-weary citizens, the government had little room to maneuver due to the binding agreement with the IMF.

    The announcement was originally scheduled for July 31, but the government delayed the decision as officials sought ways to minimise the impact on the general public. The Finance Minister, making this announcement for the last time before his government’s term ends on August 12, emphasised that the decision was taken in the “national interest.”

    Dar clarified that if it were not for the IMF agreement, the government would have attempted to reduce the PDL to provide relief to the masses. He referred to the measures taken by the previous government that decreased petrol prices but resulted in a breach of commitments with the IMF.

    Explaining the reasons behind the price hike, the finance minister highlighted the surge in international market prices of high-speed diesel, which necessitated adjustments in local rates. He stressed that it was crucial to pass on the minimum amount to the consumers, considering the nation’s interests.

    The sudden increase in fuel prices is likely to have significant implications on the overall economy, including its impact on inflation rates and the cost of living for ordinary citizens. With the government’s term ending soon, the incoming administration will face the challenge of managing economic stability and addressing public concerns over rising fuel costs.

  • Gold price drops by Rs2,000 per tola as Pakistani rupee gains ground against US dollar

    Gold price drops by Rs2,000 per tola as Pakistani rupee gains ground against US dollar

    The gold price in Pakistan experienced a significant decline of more than Rs2,000 per tola following the appreciation of the local currency against the US dollar in the interbank market.

    According to the data released by the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) on Wednesday, the price of 24-carat gold witnessed a decrease of Rs2,400 per tola and Rs2,058 per 10 grammes, settling at Rs222,100 and Rs190,415, respectively.

    Conversely, the international market recorded a $12 increase in the price of gold, bringing it to $1,972.

    The fluctuating gold rate in Pakistan can be attributed to ongoing political and economic uncertainties and high inflation, prompting individuals to seek gold as a safe investment and hedge during such times.

    As per the data provided by the association, the price of silver remained constant at Rs2,750 per tola and Rs2,357.68 per 10 grammes.

    In parallel, the local currency demonstrated a positive trend against the US dollar in the interbank market today, appreciating by Rs1.48 or 0.52 per cent. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported that the rupee closed at Rs287.04 against the dollar.

  • Pakistan’s inflation forecasted to remain between 25-27% for July, says Finance Ministry

    Pakistan’s inflation forecasted to remain between 25-27% for July, says Finance Ministry

    The Ministry of Finance anticipates a decline in inflation for the month of July compared to the previous month, with expectations of it remaining within the range of 25-27 per cent. The ministry’s ‘Monthly Economic Update & Outlook’ for July attributes this anticipated decrease to the recent reduction in administered prices of petrol and diesel, which is expected to lower domestic prices of essential goods by impacting transportation costs.

    The headline inflation in Pakistan slowed to 29.4 per cent in June, marking the lowest reading since January. The report explains that the recent decline in international commodity prices is likely to counteract the inflationary pressures caused by domestic supply shocks. Notably, the benchmark index of international food commodity prices experienced a downturn in June 2023, primarily driven by price decreases in major cereals and various vegetable oils.

    The government’s timely efforts to boost the agriculture sector through the Kisan Package are expected to result in a better crop outlook and smoother domestic supplies. Additionally, anticipated political stability and a stable exchange rate are deemed as factors that would contribute to achieving price stability.

    Regarding the fiscal outlook, the Ministry of Finance expects both exports and imports to gradually increase in the upcoming months of FY2024. Despite other factors, the report projects that the current account deficit will remain sustainable during this period.

    To enhance revenue collection in FY2024, the government has unveiled a comprehensive strategy for all sectors of the economy, aiming to revive economic growth and foster a higher inclusive and sustainable growth trajectory. Various administrative and policy measures have been introduced to increase tax collection, while the State Bank of Pakistan’s withdrawal of import restrictions is expected to stimulate demand and support revenue improvement.

    The report acknowledges the success of the government in ensuring the sustainability of the external and fiscal sectors during FY2023, achieved through the implementation of tough decisions and stabilisation measures. Looking ahead to FY2024, the government aims to achieve higher economic growth of 3.5 per cent through measures such as the Kisan package, industrial support, export promotion, encouragement of the IT sector, and resource mobilisation.

    In conclusion, the Ministry of Finance emphasises that prudent and effective economic decisions, political and economic certainty, and the continuation of friendly economic policies, along with sufficient foreign exchange financing, will be crucial to attaining higher and sustainable economic growth. The recent approval of the Stand-By Arrangement by the International Monetary Fund and other bilateral and multilateral inflows are expected to further improve the macroeconomic environment and enhance the confidence of economic agents.

  • Petroleum dealers’ strike averted: Govt approves Rs1.64 per litre profit margin increase

    Petroleum dealers’ strike averted: Govt approves Rs1.64 per litre profit margin increase

    The government has successfully reached an agreement with the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) to avert the strike they had threatened last week. After extensive negotiations, the government agreed to increase the profit margin on petroleum products for dealers by Rs1.64 per litre.

    Chairman of the PPDA, Abdul Sami Khan, made the announcement regarding the deal. Initially, the government had proposed a lower increase of Rs1.64 per litre, but the dealers, who had originally sought a higher increase of Rs5 per litre, resisted, deeming it insufficient to cover their rising business costs. Eventually, they accepted the government’s offer.

    The new profit margin for dealers will be implemented in four phases. Every fortnight, it will be raised by Rs0.41 per litre, culminating in a full raise of Rs1.6 per litre within two months. This will bring the dealers’ margin to Rs7.6 per litre, up from the current Rs6 per litre.

    The decision to strike was initially announced by the PPDA in response to the ongoing inflation crisis. The association stated that increasing interest rates and inflation had severely impacted their businesses and demanded a raise in the dealership margin to cope with the challenges they were facing. They also pointed out a decline in sales by 30%, partly due to the smuggling of Iranian fuel into the country.

    Read more: Petroleum dealers and Minister set to meet today to resolve profit margin dispute

    However, the strike was deferred for two days after the PPDA members engaged in discussions with the State Minister for Petroleum, Musadik Malik. The minister’s visit to Karachi was aimed at convincing the PPDA to call off the nationwide strike.

    In summary, following negotiations with the government, the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association has agreed to suspend their planned strike, and the government will increase their profit margin on petroleum products in a phased manner over the next two months.

  • Slow economic growth and inflation challenges persist in Pakistan: ADB Outlook Report

    Slow economic growth and inflation challenges persist in Pakistan: ADB Outlook Report

    During the last fiscal year, Pakistan faced the twin challenges of low economic growth and high inflation, in contrast to other South Asian countries.

    According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to foster economic improvement, Pakistan must continue implementing reforms under the new IMF programme.

    However, the ADB’s Outlook Report predicts that the economic growth rate in the upcoming financial year is expected to remain sluggish, similar to the performance observed in the previous fiscal period.

    The primary reasons for the slow economic growth were last year’s floods and the implementation of strict monetary and fiscal policies.

    The ADB’s report also highlights that inflation in Pakistan exceeded expectations during the past year. This inflationary pressure was further exacerbated by increased demand for commodities.

    In comparison, India is projected to experience a growth rate of 6.7 per cent, Sri Lanka 1.3 per cent, and Bangladesh at a rate of 6.5 per cent.

  • Gold price increases by Rs6,200 to Rs221,000 per tola

    Gold price increases by Rs6,200 to Rs221,000 per tola

    On Tuesday, the gold price in Pakistan experienced a significant increase, aligning with the international market trends and the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee.

    The All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) reported that the price of 24-carat gold rose by Rs6,200 per tola and Rs5,316 per 10 grammes, reaching Rs221,000 and Rs189,472 respectively.

    Simultaneously, the global market witnessed a $10 rise in the price of gold, settling at $1,967 per ounce.

    In contrast, the prices of silver per tola and 10 grammes remained unchanged at Rs2,650 and Rs2,271.94 respectively. The gold rate in Pakistan has shown volatility in recent times due to ongoing political and economic uncertainty, coupled with high inflation.

    Read more: Pakistan’s current account surplus soars to $334 million in June

    Furthermore, the Pakistani rupee displayed weakness against the dollar in the interbank market on Tuesday, depreciating by Rs3.78, as per data from the State Bank of Pakistan.

  • Sindh govt’s Rs2 roti plan may trigger shortage, price inflation in the near future

    Sindh govt’s Rs2 roti plan may trigger shortage, price inflation in the near future

    Sindh Governor Kamran Tessori has announced a subsidised food programme for the poor. As part of this initiative, the government will provide roti (flatbread) at a price of Rs2.

    Tessori stated that the provision of roti at a reduced price is aimed at helping people affected by inflation and will be implemented in specific areas of the metropolis. He emphasised that this noble cause will be pursued as a mission.

    During a ceremony on Sunday, the governor announced the establishment of up to 300 tandoors (traditional clay ovens) across the Sindh capital, where roti will be sold for only Rs2. Additionally, he reiterated that ration bags would be distributed among one hundred thousand deserving families in the port city.

    While it may seem beneficial for the inflation-hit people of Karachi to have access to roti at a significantly lower price of Rs2 compared to the Rs20-25 market price, there could be unintended consequences.

    If the government sets up 300 temporary tandoors selling roti at Rs2, the majority of people may opt to buy from them rather than purchasing roti from tandoors selling it at a higher price. Consequently, the tandoors selling roti for Rs20 may be forced to close as they would be unable to compete with these subsidised tandoors.

    Once the government discontinues the cheap roti scheme or ceases to offer it at reduced rates, there is a potential for a shortage to arise. With only a limited number of tandoors available for citizens to purchase roti from, the scarcity could drive up the price of roti to Rs30 or even higher.

    This highlights the possibility that the government’s initiative of selling roti at a reduced rate may not be sustainable in the long run. The temporary availability of roti at Rs2 might not be as beneficial as initially perceived. Only time will tell whether this programme will provide temporary relief to the masses or worsen the situation.

  • Gold price in Pakistan increases by Rs4,000 to Rs208,000 per tola ahead of Muharram

    Gold price in Pakistan increases by Rs4,000 to Rs208,000 per tola ahead of Muharram

    In anticipation of the upcoming month of Muharram, which signifies the start of the new Islamic year, gold prices in Pakistan experienced significant gains on Thursday.

    Data provided by the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) reveals that the price of 24-carat gold rose by Rs4,000 per tola and Rs3,429 per 10 grammes, settling at Rs208,000 and Rs178,326, respectively.

    Simultaneously, the international market witnessed a surge in the price of gold, with a $13 increase, reaching $1,959 per ounce. This rise in gold rates can be attributed to prevailing political and economic uncertainties, as well as high inflation in Pakistan. During such periods, individuals often turn to gold as a safe investment and hedge against market volatility.

    As the month of Muharram approaches, there is typically an upswing in the buying and selling of this precious commodity, leading to increased demand. Supporting this trend, APSGJA data reveals that the price of silver rose by Rs50 per tola and Rs42.87 per 10 grammes, settling at Rs2,600 and Rs2,229.08, respectively. Notably, the previous day witnessed a decline in the bullion price by Rs500 per tola and Rs429 per 10 grammes.

    Furthermore, the local currency demonstrated minimal gains of 0.37 per cent against the US dollar in the interbank market today, as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The rupee closed at Rs276.46 against the dollar.

  • Govt to implement Rs7 per unit power tariff hike, expecting over Rs3.2 trillion in revenue

    Govt to implement Rs7 per unit power tariff hike, expecting over Rs3.2 trillion in revenue

    The government is planning to raise the power base tariff by approximately Rs7 per unit. This move is expected to generate over Rs3.2 trillion in additional revenue from power consumers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board is set to discuss a stand-by arrangement, which is the final step in solidifying the IMF Staff Level Agreement. The government will then need to fulfill the program’s requirements.

    The increase in power tariff is a crucial condition set by the IMF for providing financial assistance to Pakistan. The Fund has been urging the government to raise the tariff and eliminate power subsidies to reduce the country’s fiscal deficit. The proposed increase, along with an 18 per cent GST on bills, could lead to a significant financial burden on power consumers.

    Nepra, the regulatory authority, has conducted hearings with distribution companies (Discos) on this matter. While the privatised company, K-Electric, will be insulated from the increase in base tariff, the price of electricity it draws from the national grid will become costlier.

    The increase in base tariff, estimated at nearly Rs7 per unit, is awaiting submission to the federal government for notification. If finalised, it would raise the base tariff to Rs31.80 per unit from the current Rs24.80. The increase is aimed at reducing the power sector’s circular debt accumulation, which currently stands at approximately Rs2.64 trillion due to inefficiencies in power generation, transmission, and distribution.

    The rise in power tariffs will impact consumers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, leading to inflation. Businesses will pass on the increased costs to consumers, while households will need to allocate more funds for power, straining their budgets. However, the government asserts that this step is necessary to revive the power sector and the economy. It has also promised targeted subsidies to alleviate the burden on the poor and vulnerable.

    In a positive development, the government has made a payment of Rs142 billion to Independent Power Producers (IPPs), reducing their outstanding dues and improving their cash flows. However, the power sector still faces a circular debt of Rs2.64 trillion. Additionally, the IMF has called for a 45-50 per cent increase in gas tariffs, affecting consumers of Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL).

    The government is likely to continue its policy of having high-end consumers subsidise low-end consumers. The circular debt in the energy sector amounts to over Rs4.30 trillion, including debts from the oil and gas sector.

    Finance ministry and Nepra officials have experienced confusion regarding the finalisation of the increase in base tariff, as the IMF board meeting approaches. The regulator is awaiting projections from the finance ministry to determine the final base tariff. The government aims to achieve a value of Rs240 for the US dollar, despite setting it at Rs290 billion in the federal budget.

    Overall, the government’s objective is to address the financial challenges in the power sector while providing support to those affected by the tariff increase. The proposed measures are crucial to stabilise the power sector and stimulate the economy.