Tag: inflation

  • Inflation in Pakistan reaches nearly 50-year high, raising concerns for citizens

    Inflation in Pakistan reaches nearly 50-year high, raising concerns for citizens

    Pakistan’s inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), surged to a record-breaking 31.5 per cent in February, largely driven by steep price hikes in food, housing, and transportation groups. This concerning development was recently reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), and has heightened expectations of an increase in interest rates during the upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, which the central bank has scheduled for March 2.

    The February inflation rate marks the highest figure since available data dating back to July 1965, surpassing the previous record of slightly over 29 per cent in April 1975. The unexpected pace of price increases has surpassed the finance ministry’s expectations, who had projected an inflation range of 28 per cent to 30 per cent just a day before the report.

    According to Geo, the monthly inflation rate surged by 4.3 per cent in February compared to January, primarily due to increased average prices of food items such as poultry, fruits, pulses, oil, vegetables, ghee, LPG, gas charges, and domestic petroleum products.

    The inflation reading raises concerns that the government will need to review its strategy to secure the critical $1.1 loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Despite repeated efforts, the government has been unable to regain lost ground with the IMF and is continually delivering financial shocks to the people.

    According to PBS, the inflation rate rose in both urban and rural areas. Urban inflation increased to 28.8 per cent in February, while rural inflation soared to 35.6 per cent compared to the same month last year. In February of the previous year, urban inflation was recorded at 11.5 per cent, while rural inflation was at 13.3 per cent.

  • Pakistan’s finance ministry predicts high inflation to persist

    Pakistan’s finance ministry predicts high inflation to persist

    As per the Finance Ministry’s monthly economic update and outlook for February, inflation is projected to range from 28 per cent to 30 per cent in the near future, before gradually subsiding. The report cites several reasons for this, including an uncertain political and economic environment, currency depreciation, a recent increase in energy prices, and higher administered prices.

    The report notes that interest payments will contribute to total expenditures, constraining the fiscal space available for normal operations, investments, and social and structural policies.

    While the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been implementing a contractionary monetary policy, it is expected that inflationary pressures will take some time to ease. The federal government, in collaboration with provincial governments, is closely monitoring the demand-supply gap of essential commodities and taking necessary measures to stabilise prices.

    The resumption of an economic stabilization program will aid in achieving economic and exchange rate stability and provide an opportunity to benefit from falling international commodity prices. This will also help control cost-push inflation and allow the government to pass on lower commodity prices to domestic consumers.

    The report notes that favorable weather and the use of inputs by farmers should help meet the 28.4 million-ton wheat target, while disbursements under the Kissan package should positively impact agricultural productivity and overall economic activity. The cyclical pattern of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in Pakistan is positively correlated with the cyclical position of the country’s main trading partners. In December 2022, LSM activity was as expected, with no unexpected shocks observed in that month.

    However, the international economic environment remains uncertain, as evidenced by the Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) in Pakistan’s main export areas, which were somewhat negative compared to historical standards.

    The ministry anticipates that LSM will increase in January compared to the previous month, partly due to seasonal factors. The ministry forecasts that LSM output may marginally decline on a YoY basis, mainly due to the high base effect in the reference period

  • Gas and cigarette prices push Pakistan’s weekly inflation to 41%

    Gas and cigarette prices push Pakistan’s weekly inflation to 41%

    According to official data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan’s weekly inflation has remained high, with an increase of 2.78 per cent week-on-week and 41.54 per cent year-on-year for the seven-day period that ended on February 23.

    The latest figures of the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) reveal that the rise is due to an increase in gas prices for Q1 (108.38 per cent), cigarettes (76.45 per cent), bananas (6.67 per cent), chicken (5.27 per cent), sugar (3.37 per cent), cooking oil 5 litre (3.07 per cent), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (2.79 per cent), vegetable ghee 1kg (2.20 per cent) and prepared tea (1.09 per cent).

    The government of Pakistan almost doubled the gas charges for up to 3.3719 mmBtu to secure the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval for the $1.1 billion tranche out of the $6.5 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility. Previously, the rate was Rs147.57, which now stands at Rs295.

    The PBS attributes the YoY increase in SPI to the rise in prices of onions (372.03 per cent), cigarettes (164.71 per cent), gas charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), chicken (85.65 per cent), diesel (81.36 per cent), eggs (75.81 per cent), rice irri-6/9 (75.41 per cent), rice basmati broken (74.16 per cent), bananas (72.22 per cent), pulse moong (70.39 per cent), petrol (69.87 per cent), tea (62.76 per cent), pulse gram (57.02 per cent), bread (55.36 per cent), pulse mash (53.90 per cent) and LPG (52.59 per cent). However, there was a decrease in the prices of tomatoes (67.93 per cent), chilli powder (7.42 per cent) and electricity charges for Q1 (6.64 per cent).

    Analysts had predicted that inflationary pressures would intensify due to tax measures and adjustments in electricity, petroleum and gas prices made by the government to unlock the IMF programme.

    Consumers have been facing the burden of rising prices of essential kitchen items, particularly edibles. The average price of 1kg broiler chicken was Rs469.81 during the week under review compared to Rs446.29 last week. For the groups spending up to Rs17,732; Rs17,733-22,888; Rs22,889-29,517; Rs29,518-44,175; and above Rs44,175; WoW SPI increased 2.42, 2.86, 2.32, 2.18, and 3.10 per cent respectively.

    The YoY SPI for the expenditure groups went up 37.81, 39.80, 40.95, 41.94, and 42.98 per cent respectively. For the week under review, SPI was recorded at 241.29 points against 234.77 points registered last week and 170.47 points recorded during the week ended February 24, 2022.

  • SBP-held forex reserves increase by $66 million as Pakistan seeks critical IMF loan tranche

    SBP-held forex reserves increase by $66 million as Pakistan seeks critical IMF loan tranche

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reported a minor increase in its foreign exchange reserves, as the nation desperately seeks to unlock a critical tranche of funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    The central bank stated that its reserves had risen by $66 million to $3,258.5 million as of the week ended February 17, providing an import cover of around three weeks. The net foreign reserves held by commercial banks were reported to stand at $5,468.0 million, $2,209.5 million more than the SBP, taking the total liquid foreign reserves to $8,726.5 million.

    China development bank approves $700 million facility for Pakistan

    Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has announced that the forex reserves are expected to receive a significant boost in the coming week, as the Board of China Development Bank has approved a $700 million facility for Pakistan. The funds could be deposited into the SBP’s account this week.

    Pakistan takes austerity measures in a bid to resume IMF programme

    In a bid to resume the delayed IMF programme and avoid default, the Pakistani government has taken a series of steps in the past two months. These measures include adding new taxes, increasing energy prices, and loosening its control on the rupee.

    Parliament approved a supplementary finance bill that increases sales tax from 17 per cent to 25 per cent on imports ranging from cars and household appliances to chocolates and cosmetics. People will also have to pay more for business-class air travel, wedding halls, mobile phones, and sunglasses. A general sales tax was raised from 17 per cent to 18 per cent.

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also unveiled cost-cutting measures to save $764 million annually, stating that austerity, simplicity, and sacrifice are the need of the hour.

    Concerns over Pakistan’s debt and dollar crunch

    Fitch Ratings, a global credit ratings agency, has downgraded Pakistan’s $350 billion economy twice in four months, citing dwindling foreign reserves. Bloomberg data shows that Pakistan has coupon repayments of $542.5 million this year.

    In all, the country has $8 billion in dollar bonds debt due by 2051, with the next payment of $1 billion due in April of next year. Most of the nation’s external debt of about $100 billion is sourced from concessional multilateral and bilateral sources.

    Pakistan also faces a dollar crunch that tests its external stability, and supply disruptions caused by flooding, food shortages, and IMF preconditions for rescue may push inflation above 30 per cent for the first time on record, according to Bloomberg Economics.

  • President Alvi approves mini-budget amidst concerns of pushing Pakistanis into deeper poverty

    President Alvi approves mini-budget amidst concerns of pushing Pakistanis into deeper poverty

    President Dr Arif Alvi has given his approval for the Finance (Supplementary) Bill 2023, also known as the mini-budget, under Article 75 of the Constitution, which requires the president to assent to a bill presented to him within 10 days.

    National Assembly had passed the Rs170 billion mini-budget with some modifications, which will have an annual impact of about Rs550 billion.

    The budget’s approval has brought Pakistan closer to an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but at the cost of pushing people deeper into the poverty trap.

    The majority of the taxation measures were implemented, although the president had not given his assent when the National Assembly passed the bill.

    Finance Minister Ishaq Dar admitted during his wind-up speech that inflation was unbearable for the people and blamed the maladministration of the previous government of former prime minister Imran Khan.

    Dar also admitted that the news stories about Rs675 billion to Rs700 billion taxes were not untrue and the IMF had demanded those measures, which the government did not accept. Dar added that almost all major issues with the IMF had been sorted out, and Pakistan is now very near to the staff-level agreement.

  • Suzuki Swift GLX now costs more than Rs4.7 million after latest hike

    Suzuki Swift GLX now costs more than Rs4.7 million after latest hike

    Pak Suzuki Motor Company has announced its third price hike in less than 30 days, resulting in an increase in the prices of some of its more affordable car models. This move follows the ongoing trend, with Pak Suzuki citing mounting inflation and local currency depreciation as the primary reasons for the price increase.

    With immediate effect, the revised car prices are as follows:

    Variants Old Price (Rs) New Price (Rs) Increase (Rs)
    Alto VX 2,034,000 2,144,000 110,000
    Alto VXR 2,359,000 2,487,000 128,000
    Alto VXR AGS 2,528,000 2,665,000 137,000
    Alto VXL AGS 2,615,000 2,795,000 144,000
    Wagon R VXR 2,877,000 3,062,000 185,000
    Wagon R VXL 3,052,000 3,248,000 196,000
    Wagon R AGS 3,348,000 3,563,000 215,000
    Cultus VXR 3,326,000 3,540,000 214,000
    Cultus VXL 3,654,000 3,889,000 235,000
    Cultus AGS 3,906,000 4,157,000 251,000
    Swift GL M/T 3,807,000 4,052,000 245,000
    Swift GL CVT 4,092,000 4,335,000 263,000
    Swift GLX CVT 4,462,000 4,725,000 263,000
    Bolan VX 1,754,000 1,852,000 92,000

    A production halt was announced by the manufacturer last week as a result of the continued economic downturn and inventory constraint. Further days without manufacturing indicate a greater sales drop. That might result in Pak Suzuki losing a considerable portion of its market share, especially in light of the recent price increase.

  • Weekly inflation increases more than 38% as prices of petrol and food items hit the roof

    Weekly inflation increases more than 38% as prices of petrol and food items hit the roof

    According to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) based inflation for the week ended February 16, 2023, registered an increase of 2.89 per cent. The rise in inflation can be attributed to an increase in the prices of both food and non-food items.

    Food Items that saw an increase in prices

    The following food items saw a significant increase in prices during the week ended February 16, 2023:

    • Cooking oil 5 litre (8.65 per cent)
    • Vegetable ghee 1kg (8.02 per cent)
    • Bananas (8.01 per cent)
    • Chicken (7.49 per cent)
    • Vegetable ghee 2.5 kgs (6.76 per cent)

    Non-food items that saw an increase in prices

    The following non-food items saw an increase in prices during the week ended February 16, 2023:

    • Petrol (8.82 per cent)
    • Diesel (6.49 per cent)
    • Cigarettes (6.18 per cent)

    Year-on-Year Trend

    The year-on-year trend depicts an increase of 38.42 per cent mainly due to an increase in the prices of the following items:

    • Onions (433.44 per cent)
    • Chicken (101.86 per cent)
    • Diesel (81.36 per cent)
    • Eggs (81.22 per cent)
    • Rice irri-6/9 (74.12 per cent)
    • Rice basmati broken (73.05 per cent)
    • Petrol (69.87 per cent)
    • Moong (67.98 per cent)
    • Bananas (67.68 per cent)
    • Tea Lipton (63.89 per cent)
    • Pulse gram (56.93 per cent)
    • Bread (55.36 per cent)
    • Maash (53.42 per cent)
    • LPG (52.68 per cent)
    • Cigarettes (50.02 per cent)

    On the other hand, the prices of tomatoes (65.30 per cent), electricity for q1 (7.50 per cent), and chillies powdered (7.42 per cent) saw a decrease during the same period.

    SPI for the week under review

    The SPI for the week under review in the above-mentioned group was recorded at 234.77 points against 228.17 points registered in the previous week. Out of 51 items, prices of 34 (66.67 per cent) items increased, 05 (9.80 per cent) items decreased and 12 (23.53 per cent) items remained stable.

    SPI for different consumption groups

    The SPI for the consumption group up to Rs17,732, Rs17,732-22,888, Rs22,889-29,517, Rs29,518-44,175 and above Rs44,175 consumption group increased by 2.45 per cent, 2.73 per cent, 2.79 per cent, 2.88 per cent, and 2.94 per cent, respectively.

    Items that recorded an increase in average prices

    The following items recorded an increase in their average prices during the week over previous:

    • Petrol super (8.82 per cent)
    • Cooking oil Dalda or other similar brand (sn), 5 litre tin each (8.65 per cent)
    • Vegetable ghee Dalda/Habib or other superior quality 1 kg pouch each (8.02 per cent)
    • Bananas (8.01 per cent)
    • Chicken (7.49 per cent)
    • Vegetable ghee Dalda/Habib 2.5 kg tin each (6.76 per cent)
    • Hi-speed diesel (6.49 per cent)
    • Cigarettes Capstan (6.18 per cent)
  • Rev up your budget: Atlas Honda hikes motorcycle prices by up to Rs35,000 amid economic crisis

    Rev up your budget: Atlas Honda hikes motorcycle prices by up to Rs35,000 amid economic crisis

    The two-wheeler segment’s largest player in Pakistan, Atlas Honda, has raised motorcycle prices following a significant hike in car prices.

    This marks the company’s second rate hike in February, as they already increased the prices of their motorcycles by an amount ranging between Rs7,400 and Rs30,000 earlier this month.

    The new prices became effective on February 15.

    Model Old Prices (Rs) New Prices (Rs) Hike (Rs)
    CD 70 128,900 137,900 9,000
    CD 70 Dream 137,900 147,500 9,600
    Pridor 170,900 181,500 10,600
    CG 125 194,900 205,900 11,000
    CG 125 Special Edition 230,900 243,900 13,000
    CB 125 F 303,900 330,900 25,000
    CB 150 F 383,900 418,900 35,000
    CB 150 F SE 387,900 422,900 35,000
    Latest Honda Bike Price Feb 2023

    During the Finance (Supplementary) Bill 2023, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar announced a rise in the general sales tax (GST) rate to 18%, which is expected to lead to price hikes for various industries and sectors.

    Amidst Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis, the automobile sector has been significantly impacted due to the depletion of foreign exchange reserves and a weakening rupee, leading to issues with opening letters of credit.

  • Pakistan’s forex reserves increase by 9%, cross $3 billion mark

    Pakistan’s forex reserves increase by 9%, cross $3 billion mark

    After declining for three weeks in a row and losing a cumulative $1,685 million during that period, the foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have rebounded, according to a statement from the central bank.

    As of February 10, SBP’s foreign currency reserves totaled $3,192.9 million, which is up $276 million from the previous week. This increase represents a gain of over 9 per cent and has broken the streak of declining reserves.

    However, even with this increase, the amount is still only enough to cover one month of imports. Meanwhile, the net forex reserves held by commercial banks are $5,509.3 million, which is $2,316.4 billion more than SBP, bringing the total liquid foreign reserves of the country to $8,702.2 million. The statement did not provide a specific reason for the increase in SBP-held reserves.

    Pakistan’s economy is in dire straits due to a balance-of-payments crisis, political chaos, and deteriorating security. The government has banned all but essential food and medicine imports until it receives a crucial loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could unlock other sources of funding for the country.

    Inflation has risen sharply, the rupee has declined, and the country is struggling to afford imports, which has caused a severe decline in its industry. Pakistan is no longer issuing letters of credit, except for essential food and medicine, since January, which has led to a backlog of raw material imports that the country can no longer afford.

    According to Geo, the rupee devaluation and the logjam have resulted in a significant decline in manufacturing, including textiles and steel, and building projects.

    While the IMF cash injection alone will not be enough to rescue Pakistan, the government hopes that it will boost confidence and pave the way for other friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE to offer additional loans.

  • Govt increases petrol price by Rs22 to a historic high of Rs272 per litre

    Govt increases petrol price by Rs22 to a historic high of Rs272 per litre

    In an effort to satisfy the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and secure a crucial loan tranche, the federal government has raised the price of petrol to a historic high. This move comes mere hours after the introduction of a tax-laden “mini-budget”.

    Petroleum division confirmed that the price of petrol has increased by Rs22.20 to reach Rs272 per litre, citing the devaluation of the rupee relative to the dollar as the primary reason for the surge.

    The revised petrol prices are effective from 12 am tonight.

    Following an increase of Rs17.20, the cost of high-speed diesel has risen to Rs280 per litre. Similarly, kerosene oil is now priced at Rs202.73 per litre after a hike of Rs12.90, while light diesel oil is available at Rs196.68 per litre after an increase of Rs9.68.

    It is noteworthy that the surge in the prices of petroleum products was a requirement set by the lending organization based in Washington, which could result in a further escalation of the already record-high inflation. This development is compounded by the recent implementation of new fiscal measures via the ‘mini-budget’.