Tag: inflation

  • Experts predict gold price may reach Rs200,000 per tola soon

    Experts predict gold price may reach Rs200,000 per tola soon

    On Wednesday, the price of gold reached another record high as it continued its upward trend. The price of precious yellow metal in Pakistan is currently higher than the global market.

    Gold prices increased by Rs900 per tola and Rs772 per 10 grammes, respectively, according to the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA). These prices now stand at Rs188,600 and Rs161,694 respectively.

    Owing to the Pakistani rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar during the present cycle and the lack of US dollars, traders predict that the price of gold would reach Rs200,000 per tola.

    According to market analysts, the $6–$8 billion inflow from multilateral and bilateral creditors will pop Pakistan’s gold price bubble.

    Silver’s price per tola, however, stayed constant at Rs2,150. The cost of 10-gramme silver remained essentially constant at Rs1,843.27.

    Gold prices increased more than 1 per cent on Wednesday, reaching their highest level since mid-June due to a weaker rupee and mounting predictions that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates gradually rather than aggressively.

    The markets have now priced in the possibility that the central bank may raise interest rates by a full 50-100 basis points on January 23 after Pakistan’s December inflation data was revealed on Monday.

    Greater interest rates increase the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding metal, despite the fact that gold is regarded as a safe investment during times of uncertainty and a hedge against higher inflation.

  • Pakistan’s GDP growth expected to remain below 3–4% in FY23: SBP

    Pakistan’s GDP growth expected to remain below 3–4% in FY23: SBP

    In its annual economic health report released on Wednesday, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) slashed its predicted GDP growth from the previously disclosed range of 3–4 per cent for the current fiscal year, citing flood-induced destruction and the stabilisation policy as important contributors.

    However, the central bank stated that economic growth was stronger than anticipated in the 2021–22 fiscal year as real GDP increased by 6 per cent compared to 5.7 per cent a year earlier in its Annual Report on the State of Pakistan’s Economy, which mainly covered the previous fiscal year that ended on June 30.

    According to Geo, the GDP grew by 6 per cent in the previous fiscal year. In its monetary policy announcement from October, the SBP already reduced the economic growth to around 2 per cent.

    According to the research, increased agricultural output and a broad-based expansion of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) were the main forces behind this gain.

    Macroeconomic imbalances returned during FY22 as a result of a combination of unfavourable global and domestic circumstances.

    When widespread flooding struck a significant portion of the nation at the beginning of the current fiscal year, the SBP claimed that the economy was in the middle of a stabilisation phase.

    According to the report, the flooding was predicted to have an impact on the nation’s real economic activity through a number of channels. It was feared that losses in agriculture resulting from the destruction of crops and livestock would spread to the rest of the economy through a number of backward and forward links.

    According to the bank, the extensive devastation of infrastructure in the afflicted provinces might also harm the nation’s chances for growth this year.

    Due to the deteriorating economic climate, the SBP avoided stating a range for the growth rate of the current fiscal year. Due to the high rate of inflation and the scarcity of gas and electricity, industries have either stopped operating entirely or substantially reduced their production.

    The SBP’s restriction on the opening of letters of credit (LCs) for imports in an effort to save money is a significant contributing factor.

    In the event that the gas supply is not restored and no LCs are opened, the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association has warned to declare layoffs within days.

    According to the textile industry, up to 500,000 people who were either directly or indirectly employed by the business have lost their jobs. However, there are no official statistics in this regard.

  • Chalo jee, roti, naan expected to be Rs16, Rs25 in Lahore

    Chalo jee, roti, naan expected to be Rs16, Rs25 in Lahore

    The Nanbai Association in Punjab’s capital city has hinted at increasing the price of naan and roti in the city, calling a meeting to determine the price.

    The prices of Roti and Naan are expected to increase by Rs2 to Rs3.

    According to details, Aftab Gul, the President of the Association, has said that the increase in the price of roti and naan has been proposed because of the increase in price of wheat in the market. In addition, he said that non-availability of gas, wood and expensive LPG are among reasons behind the expected increase.

    Aftab Gul also said that the price of a 15 kg bag of wheat has increased from Rs1400 to Rs1775, while a bag of fine flour has increased from Rs8500 to Rs9500.

  • Business confidence in Pakistan drops to negative 4%

    Business confidence in Pakistan drops to negative 4%

    Major multinational companies with operations across a variety of sectors in Pakistan have lost faith in the country’s economy. In the previous six months, the Business Confidence Score (BCS) as a whole decreased by 21 percentage points to a negative 4 per cent.

    In the earlier survey, which was conducted in March–April 2022, the score (BCS) was positive 17 per cent. In general, more than half of respondents (56 per cent vs. 19 per cent in the prior study) had a “poor” opinion of the business environment in the previous six months.

     “Going forward, only a net 2 per cent (versus 18 per cent in the previous survey) were ‘positive’ for the next six months and 35 per cent of respondents cited no plans to invest,” according to the “Business Confidence Index Survey Wave 22” of the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI), which was held from September to November 2022.

    According to Express Tribune, political unrest, currency depreciation, and rising fuel prices were the top three factors contributing to the recent drop in business confidence. The other two top-five factors contributing to the recent drop in company confidence were the current energy crisis (high power costs) and inadequate commercial and trade policies.

    The services industry experienced a confidence decline of 24 per cent, followed by the retail and wholesale trade sectors (22 per cent), and the industrial sector (20 per cent). 25 per cent of respondents were from the retail and wholesale trade, 33 per cent from the services industry, and 42 per cent from the manufacturing sector.

    Commenting on the survey results, OICCI President, Ghias Khan said in a statement that “The substantial decline in the overall business confidence to negative 4 per cent is regrettable but not surprising considering the highly challenging political and economic situation witnessed during the past six months.”

    “The record level of rains during August leading to severe flooding in Sindh and other parts of the country further restricted business activities,” he added.

    “Foreign investors’ feedback could have been more positive but for serious concerns on a few critical issues like the undue delay in revising the pharma pricing and the extreme delays in overseas (outward) remittances for goods, services and dividends. Such actions are seriously counter-productive when trying to attract FDI (foreign direct investment) into the country,” Khan expounded.

    The main factors affecting business confidence in the country are anticipated to remain political unrest, rising fuel prices, and rupee depreciation.

    OICCI Vice President, Amir Paracha noted that “These are challenging times. Authorities are doing all they can to navigate the situation, including controlling inflation, managing the economy with restricted availability of foreign exchange and other resource constraints.”

    “The key stakeholders, especially foreign investors, will continue to support the authorities in taking long-term policy measures to streamline the economic fundamentals, including fair taxation for all, and facilitate business and investment into the country,” he added.

    According to the most recent survey results, the confidence index for business expansion (extra investment) plans over the next six months has decreased to 18 per cent from 34 per cent in the previous survey/W21.

    Similarly, capital investment (new) plans for the following six months fell sharply to 2 per cent (from 21 per cent in the previous wave).

    Compared to Wave 21, just 7 per cent of respondents in Wave 22 reported an increase in overall employment. A drop in overall employment over the previous six months was mentioned by almost 11 per cent of respondents.

    According to the trade body, “OICCI is the collective voice of major foreign investors. Over 200 members, from 31 different countries, have a presence in 14 sectors of the domestic economy and contribute over one-third of Pakistan’s total tax revenue.”

    In the meantime, on Wednesday, the interbank market saw the rupee fall 0.02 per cent (or Rs0.05), falling to a two-month low of Rs224.16 against the US dollar.

  • SBP raises key interest rate to 16% amid economic difficulties to combat inflation

    SBP raises key interest rate to 16% amid economic difficulties to combat inflation

    The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 16 per cent on Friday, the highest level since 1999.

    The decision, according to the central bank, reflects the MPC’s belief that inflationary pressures have proven to be higher and more persistent than anticipated, according to a statement released following the meeting.

    “This decision is aimed at ensuring that elevated inflation does not become entrenched and that risks to financial stability are contained, thus paving the way for higher growth on a more sustainable basis,” the MPC said.

    The SBP stated that, notwithstanding the continuous slowing in the economy, supply shocks both domestically and globally are increasingly responsible for inflation.

    “In turn, these shocks are spilling over into broader prices and wages, which could de-anchor inflation expectations and undermine medium-term growth,” the statement read, adding that consequently the rise in cost-push inflation cannot be overlooked and necessitates a monetary policy response.

    The MPC also pointed out that the immediate costs of fighting inflation are less than the long-term consequences of letting it persist. In the meanwhile, reducing food inflation through administrative steps to clear supply-chain snags and any required imports continues to be a top focus.

    From September 2021 to November 2022, the central bank raised the interest rate by a total of 900 basis points, bringing it to 16 per cent.

    However, the committee noted that core inflation and rising food costs are now anticipated to raise average inflation for FY23 to 21-23 per cent.

  • CPI inflation in Pakistan increases to 26.6% in October

    CPI inflation in Pakistan increases to 26.6% in October

    In Pakistan, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose sharply in October, surging by 26.6 per cent year over year (YoY). On the other hand, it climbed 4.7 per cent month over month (MoM), indicating a decline of 1.2 per cent from September.

    “CPI inflation General, increased to 26.6 per cent on YoY basis in Oct 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.2 per cent in the previous month and 9.2 per cent in Oct 2021,” said the PBS.

    According to APP, inflation reached a YoY high of 27.3 per cent in August 2022, which was over a 47-year high in the inflation measurement in June 2022 after it had crossed the 20 per cent threshold.

    The inflation reading matches what the market had predicted.

    According to the PBS, year-over-year CPI inflation in urban areas reached 24.6 per cent in October 2022 as opposed to an increase of 21.2 per cent in the previous month and 9.6 per cent in October 2021.

    In October 2022, it grew to 4.5 per cent month over month, up from 1.7 per cent in October 2021 and a decline of 2.1 per cent the month before.

    In addition, year-over-year CPI inflation in rural regions reached 29.5 per cent in October 2022 as opposed to increases of 26.1 per cent in the previous month and 8.7 per cent in October 2021.

    When compared to the previous month’s gain of 0.2 per cent and the increase of 2.2 per cent in October 2021, it increased by 5.0 per cent in October 2022 on a monthly basis.

    Rising inflation has become a major worry for Pakistan’s economy, which is already experiencing a loss of foreign exchange reserves.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 15 per cent in October at the recommendation of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), believing that the current monetary policy stance achieves the right mix between controlling inflation and sustaining growth in the wake of the floods.

    “On the one hand, inflation could be higher and more persistent due to the supply shock to food prices, and it is important to ensure that this additional impetus does not spill over into broader prices in the economy. On the other, growth prospects have weakened, which should reduce demand-side pressures and suppress underlying inflation,” MPC said then.

    However, the government on Monday night announced that the price of petroleum products will remain the same for the ensuing 15 days.

    According to PBS data, the inflation rates that were highest in October were in the transportation, food, housing, and restaurant and hotel groupings.

    Items that witnessed an increase in prices

    Food

    The food commodities that witnessed increase in prices on a YoY basis included tomatoes (219.34 per cent), onions (165.66 per cent), gram whole (69.80 per cent), pulse gram (65.08 per cent), besan (62.25 per cent), mustard oil (61.14 per cent), pulse masoor (61.07 per cent), fresh vegetables (58.87 per cent), cooking oil (58.06 per cent), pulse mash (55.33 per cent), vegetable ghee (52.5 per cent), pulse moong (49.84 per cent), wheat (45.77 per cent), tea (41.89 per cent), rice (40.76 per cent), wheat flour (37.38 per cent), milk fresh (29.61 per cent), meat (25.34 per cent), potatoes (20.65 per cent), fish (15.4 per cent), chicken (12.22 per cent) and gur (0.39 per cent).

    Non-food items

    The non-food commodities that witnessed increase on a YoY basis included motor fuel (64.81 per cent), stationery (44.5 per cent), washing soap/detergents/match box (41.49 per cent), transport services (41.27 per cent), motor vehicles (34.29 per cent), construction input items (32.03 per cent), motor vehicle accessories (31.31 per cent), electricity charges (24.95 per cent), cotton cloth (24.16 per cent), household equipment (21.4 per cent), solid fuel (20.88 per cent) and construction wage rates (12.72 per cent).

  • Poor performance forces govt to extend income tax return filing deadline to November 30

    Poor performance forces govt to extend income tax return filing deadline to November 30

    The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has managed to reach its four-month target of Rs2.14 trillion despite poor performance in increasing the tax base because of a 34 per cent decrease in income tax returns filed.

    Ishaq Dar, the finance minister, was forced to once again push the deadline for filing returns due to the dismal results in increasing the tax base. The new deadline is November 30; within this time, FBR must receive an additional Rs1.3 million in returns only to match the amount from the previous year.

    The FBR collected Rs2.148 trillion in taxes, as opposed to the objective of Rs2.143 trillion set for the period of July to October, according to FBR officials. Tax revenue increased by 16 per cent, or Rs305 billion, as compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

    This increase was slower than the 23 per cent inflation rate that was in effect at the time. but adequate for the first four months of the fiscal year to keep the tax department on pace.

    According to Express Tribune, the FBR had taken in Rs1.84 trillion in tax revenue during the first four months of the previous fiscal year. The economy’s slowdown, however, makes it appear as though the FBR may fall short of its tax goals for the upcoming months.

    A decrease in imports was the main reason the FBR could not meet its monthly tax goal of Rs 534 billion, which it missed by Rs 22 billion. Although there was a 15 per cent increase in revenue over the Rs445 billion collected in October of last year, the monthly goal was not met.

    The Inland Revenue Service (IRS) exceeded its July–October goal, largely mitigating the effects of the Customs Department’s low collection rate.

    As long as less than 2.5 million people file income tax returns, the tax system will not be able to increase the tax base, which has shrunk by 34 per cent during the previous tax year. Up to Rs3.8 million worth of returns have been submitted for the 2021 tax year.

    By extending the tax base to include traders, Pakistan had promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it would increase the tax base by a minimum of 700,000. Instead, it is approximately Rs1.3 million below the total from the prior year. The FBR’s base really falls two million short of its own conservative goal.

  • Japan’s consumer inflation hits 8-year high

    Japan’s consumer inflation hits 8-year high

    According to official data released on Friday, Japan’s core consumer prices increased 3.0 per cent year over year in September, the highest level since 2014 as households were hard-hit by the weakening yen and rising energy prices.

    According to Reuters, the statistic raises inflation considerably above the Bank of Japan’s long-term 2.0 per cent target, even when volatile fresh food prices are excluded. The central bank’s claim that the present rises do not yet fulfil its criteria for persistent price growth is supported by the fact that the figure was only 1.8 per cent when energy costs were excluded.

    The most recent data was in line with market forecasts, but when similar data was last seen, a VAT increase had artificially inflated prices. The rate of inflation in September was the highest in nearly 31 years, excluding years when tax increases had an impact on the rate.

    “The bulk of the price increases at the moment are rises in raw material prices,” while service prices associated with wages have not seen meaningful increases, Taro Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute, said in a note released before the data.

    He projected that stabilising inflation in Japan will take longer time to achieve due to pay rises and rising service costs.

    The BoJ believes the present price hikes are related to extraordinary occurrences like the conflict in Ukraine, whereas other central banks have chosen to raise interest rates to combat skyrocketing inflation.

    It has persisted in its ultra-loose monetary policy and refrained from raising rates, claiming that the third-largest economy in the world has not yet attained the inflation target of 2.0 per cent that it believes is required to accelerate growth.

    The yen has fallen, especially against the dollar, as a result of the widening gap between the bank’s policy and other rate increases. The yen dropped to 150 versus the dollar on Thursday, the lowest level since 1990.

  • Here’s how Pakistan’s inflation is impacting consumer buying pattern

    Here’s how Pakistan’s inflation is impacting consumer buying pattern

    In Pakistan, the real value of income has been undermined by inflation, while high interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing.

    Record inflation rates have dominated news for the past year, coupled with supply chain problems, material shortages, elevated fuel prices, and vegetable prices that increased by 500 per cent in September.

    According to a poll by Pulse Consultant, which was conducted in August 2022, 78 per cent of Pakistanis think that their country’s economy is going on the wrong path. Inflation has affected 66 per cent of people hard, and 12 per cent of people say their expenses aren’t keeping up.

    Pulse Consultant asked an open-ended question in a nationwide computer-assisted telephonic study in which more than 1,600 people across the country responded and revealed how they are dealing with the current wave of inflation.

    The following are the areas where customers lowered their spending:

    • Reduced Grocery Purchasing – 24 per cent
    • Avoid Going Out – 18 per cent
    • Stop Unnecessary Shopping – 16 per cent
    • Reduced Fast Food – 10 per cent
    • Reduced Overall Expenses -9 per cent
    • Save Petrol – 7 per cent
    • Reduced Children Expenses – 5 per cent
    • Avoid Beauty Parlor / Salon – 3 per cent
    • Save Electricity – 3 per cent
    • Avoid Family Gatherings – 3 per cent
    • Reduced Meat Consumption – 2 per cent

    In Pakistan, CPI inflation increased to 27.3 per cent in August 2022 from 12.1 per cent in January 2022. There are a number of causes for the sudden rise in inflation, despite the fact that core inflation (excluding oil and food costs) is at 18 per cent. The incidence of imported inflation has increased as a result of the rupee’s depreciation. From April through August 2022, the rupee’s value against the US dollar decreased by around 23 per cent.

    Pakistani currency is presently strengthening as a result of the restoration of the IMF package following its derailment last winter. Additionally, even though the oil bill still accounts for around 26–30 per cent of all imports, import reduction has improved the current account situation. The administration has promised to pass along any decrease in oil prices to the public.

    The lag effect of the significant budget deficit experienced in the previous year is one of the other primary causes of the high level of inflation. In contrast to the 4.2 per cent agreed upon with the IMF, the budget deficit during the FY ending on June 30, 2022, reached as high as Rs6,900 billion, or about 9 per cent of GDP.

    In addition, $20 billion in debt, as opposed to $53 billion between 2008 and 2018, was committed over the past four years. As a result, more money is being spent in pursuit of fewer commodities.

    The challenges of recession and skyrocketing inflation are pretty much universal. Despite having low inflation rates, China and Japan’s economies are expected to slow down. Inflation is being fueled by earlier Covid and current high oil, gas, and commodity costs in the wake of the Ukraine war, which is slowing growth.