Tag: international commodity prices

  • Pakistan’s inflation forecasted to remain between 25-27% for July, says Finance Ministry

    Pakistan’s inflation forecasted to remain between 25-27% for July, says Finance Ministry

    The Ministry of Finance anticipates a decline in inflation for the month of July compared to the previous month, with expectations of it remaining within the range of 25-27 per cent. The ministry’s ‘Monthly Economic Update & Outlook’ for July attributes this anticipated decrease to the recent reduction in administered prices of petrol and diesel, which is expected to lower domestic prices of essential goods by impacting transportation costs.

    The headline inflation in Pakistan slowed to 29.4 per cent in June, marking the lowest reading since January. The report explains that the recent decline in international commodity prices is likely to counteract the inflationary pressures caused by domestic supply shocks. Notably, the benchmark index of international food commodity prices experienced a downturn in June 2023, primarily driven by price decreases in major cereals and various vegetable oils.

    The government’s timely efforts to boost the agriculture sector through the Kisan Package are expected to result in a better crop outlook and smoother domestic supplies. Additionally, anticipated political stability and a stable exchange rate are deemed as factors that would contribute to achieving price stability.

    Regarding the fiscal outlook, the Ministry of Finance expects both exports and imports to gradually increase in the upcoming months of FY2024. Despite other factors, the report projects that the current account deficit will remain sustainable during this period.

    To enhance revenue collection in FY2024, the government has unveiled a comprehensive strategy for all sectors of the economy, aiming to revive economic growth and foster a higher inclusive and sustainable growth trajectory. Various administrative and policy measures have been introduced to increase tax collection, while the State Bank of Pakistan’s withdrawal of import restrictions is expected to stimulate demand and support revenue improvement.

    The report acknowledges the success of the government in ensuring the sustainability of the external and fiscal sectors during FY2023, achieved through the implementation of tough decisions and stabilisation measures. Looking ahead to FY2024, the government aims to achieve higher economic growth of 3.5 per cent through measures such as the Kisan package, industrial support, export promotion, encouragement of the IT sector, and resource mobilisation.

    In conclusion, the Ministry of Finance emphasises that prudent and effective economic decisions, political and economic certainty, and the continuation of friendly economic policies, along with sufficient foreign exchange financing, will be crucial to attaining higher and sustainable economic growth. The recent approval of the Stand-By Arrangement by the International Monetary Fund and other bilateral and multilateral inflows are expected to further improve the macroeconomic environment and enhance the confidence of economic agents.

  • Pakistan’s finance ministry predicts high inflation to persist

    Pakistan’s finance ministry predicts high inflation to persist

    As per the Finance Ministry’s monthly economic update and outlook for February, inflation is projected to range from 28 per cent to 30 per cent in the near future, before gradually subsiding. The report cites several reasons for this, including an uncertain political and economic environment, currency depreciation, a recent increase in energy prices, and higher administered prices.

    The report notes that interest payments will contribute to total expenditures, constraining the fiscal space available for normal operations, investments, and social and structural policies.

    While the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been implementing a contractionary monetary policy, it is expected that inflationary pressures will take some time to ease. The federal government, in collaboration with provincial governments, is closely monitoring the demand-supply gap of essential commodities and taking necessary measures to stabilise prices.

    The resumption of an economic stabilization program will aid in achieving economic and exchange rate stability and provide an opportunity to benefit from falling international commodity prices. This will also help control cost-push inflation and allow the government to pass on lower commodity prices to domestic consumers.

    The report notes that favorable weather and the use of inputs by farmers should help meet the 28.4 million-ton wheat target, while disbursements under the Kissan package should positively impact agricultural productivity and overall economic activity. The cyclical pattern of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in Pakistan is positively correlated with the cyclical position of the country’s main trading partners. In December 2022, LSM activity was as expected, with no unexpected shocks observed in that month.

    However, the international economic environment remains uncertain, as evidenced by the Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) in Pakistan’s main export areas, which were somewhat negative compared to historical standards.

    The ministry anticipates that LSM will increase in January compared to the previous month, partly due to seasonal factors. The ministry forecasts that LSM output may marginally decline on a YoY basis, mainly due to the high base effect in the reference period