Tag: loan

  • ADB projects Pakistan’s economy to ‘recover slightly’ in FY23

    ADB projects Pakistan’s economy to ‘recover slightly’ in FY23

    In FY2023, Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to modestly improve due to structural changes, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

    According to the bank’s most recent Asian Development Outlook Supplement, Pakistan’s GDP growth is predicted to decrease in FY22 (which ends on June 30, 2022), as a result of fiscal tightening measures taken to control rising demand pressures and contain external and fiscal imbalances.

    As the country’s inflation surged from 12.3 per cent in December 2021 to 21.3 per cent in June 2022, the bank slightly lowered Pakistan’s inflation for FY22 and dramatically for FY23.

    “In addition to the effects of elevated global energy and food prices, the government’s efforts to revive the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme has meant raising power tariffs and withdrawing subsidies in the oil and power sectors,” said ADB.

    In comparison to Sri Lanka, which boosted its policy rate by 950 basis points over the previous six months, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has upped interest rates by 525 basis points since January 1. This also makes it one of the most active central banks in the region.

    The ADB also reduced its 2022 growth prediction for Asia and issued a warning that things could become worse as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions that are expected to drive up costs.

    Read more: Pakistani rupee plunges to Rs227 against US dollar at midday trading

    Although Covid-19’s effects had subsided, the region was now dealing with the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and aggressively raised interest rates, according to the Manila-based lender.

    The bank reduced its 2022 growth prediction to 4.6 per cent to reflect the decline in developing Asia, which runs from Kazakhstan in Central Asia to the Cook Islands in the Pacific.

    South Asia’s economy is anticipated to grow less than the projected rate of growth in the Asian Development Outlook 2022.

  • Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement to resume loan

    Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement to resume loan

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) extended the total loan size to $7 billion on Thursday and announced a staff-level agreement on the completion of two unfinished programme assessments, but cautioned Pakistan to be prepared to take any extra measures.

    “The IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) with the Pakistan authorities for the conclusion of the combined seventh and eighth reviews of the EFF-supported program. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board. Subject to Board approval, about $1,177 million (SDR 894 million) will become available, bringing total disbursements under the program to about $4.2 billion,” IMF said in a statement.

    The statement added, “Additionally, in order to support program implementation and meet the higher financing needs in FY23, as well as catalyze additional financing, the IMF Board will consider an extension of the EFF until end-June 2023 and an augmentation of access by SDR 720 million that will bring the total access under the EFF to about $7 billion.”

    IMF team leader Nathan Porter noted in a statement “Pakistan is at a challenging economic juncture. A difficult external environment combined with procyclical domestic policies fueled domestic demand to unsustainable levels.”

    According to him, the ensuing economic overheating reduced reserve buffers, increased inflation, and resulted in significant fiscal and external deficits in FY22.

    The statement continued, “Policy priorities include the consistent implementation of the FY23 budget, which aims to reduce the government’s significant borrowing needs by targeting an underlying primary surplus of 0.4 per cent of GDP, underpinned by current spending restraint and extensive revenue mobilisation efforts targeted particularly at higher-income taxpayees.”

    According to Express Tribune, the international lender claimed that due to poor implementation of the previously agreed upon plan, the circular debt (CD) flow in the power sector is predicted to increase significantly to about Rs850 billion in FY22, exceeding programme targets, endangering the viability of the sector, and resulting in frequent power outages.

    To improve the situation in the electricity sector and reduce load shedding, the authorities are committed to resuming reforms, which crucially include the timely adjustment of the power tariff, including the delayed yearly rebasing and quarterly adjustments.

    According to the IMF, Pakistan’s headline inflation rate hit 20 per cent in June, impacting the most vulnerable people the most. The recent monetary policy boost was reasonable and necessary in this regard, and future monetary policy must be designed to ensure that inflation is slowly brought down to the medium-term goal of 5-7 per cent.

    “Importantly, to enhance monetary policy transmission, the rates of the two major refinancing schemes EFS and LTFF (which have over recent months been raised by 700 bps and 500 bps respectively) will continue to be linked to the policy rate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help cushion activity and rebuild reserves to more prudent levels,” it added.

    The unconditional cash transfer (UCT) Kafalat scheme reached nearly 8 million households during FY22, with a permanent increase in the stipend to Rs14,000 per family, while a one-time cash transfer of Rs2,000 (Sasta Fuel Sasta Diesel, SFSD) was made to approximately 8.6 million families to lessen the effects of the inflationary crisis.

    The government has increased the BISP budget for FY23 from Rs250 billion to Rs364 billion in order to expand the SFSD programme to more non-BISP, lower-middle class beneficiaries and to accommodate 9 million extra families into the BISP safety net.

    The statement further stated that in order to maintain the effectiveness of the anti-corruption agencies (including the National Accountability Bureau) in investigating and prosecuting corruption cases, the authorities are putting in place a strong electronic asset declaration system.

    According to the SLA for the combined seventh and eighth reviews, consistent execution of the defined policies will support the development of growth that is more equitable and sustainable.

    “The authorities should nonetheless stand ready to take any additional measures necessary to meet program objectives, given the elevated uncertainty in the global economy and financial markets,” the statement concluded.

  • Yamaha YBR125G now costs Rs292,000 after Rs26,000 hike

    Yamaha YBR125G now costs Rs292,000 after Rs26,000 hike

    The prices of Yamaha’s motorcycle lineup have increased, with the hike reaching as high as Rs26,500 and the new pricing taking effect from July 1st.

    According to Brecorder, the development comes a day after Atlas Honda raised the prices of its lineup.

    Yamaha’s YB125Z has seen a price hike of Rs23,500, bringing the current cost to Rs255,000. The cost of the YB125Z DX also increased by Rs25,000. The updated cost is Rs273,500.

    After a Rs25,500 price increase, the YBR125 will now be available for Rs280,500. The cost of the YBR125G rose from Rs26,500 to Rs292,000. The cost of the YBR125G (Matte Dark Gray) has also gone up by Rs26,500 and will now be available for Rs295,000.

    Last month, the company similarly raised the price of bikes by between Rs21,000 and Rs23,000. Motorcycle producers at the time cited rising raw material costs, rising international freight charges, and the ongoing depreciation of the rupee as causes.

    Sabir Sheikh, Chairman of the Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers (APMA), stated that the recently enacted super tax of 10 per cent and the weakening rupee are to blame for the increase.

  • Pakistan gets temporary relief of $3.68 billion from G-20 countries

    Pakistan gets temporary relief of $3.68 billion from G-20 countries

    The Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that the Government of Pakistan and the French Republic on Monday signed an agreement as part of the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).

    The government signed a DSSI, which amounted to the suspension of loans totaling $107 million under the G20 DSSI framework, according to a statement made in this regard by the ministry, according to Profit.

    This sum, which was initially due between July and December 2021, will now be paid back over a six-year period (plus a one-year grace period) in semi-annual installments, according to the statement.

    Federal Secretary for Economic Affairs Division Mian Asad Hayaud Din and French Ambassador to Pakistan Nicolas Galey signed the agreement today in Islamabad.

    Agreements for the revocation of $261 million between the government and the French Republic have already been signed.

    The ministry mentioned that the G20 DSSI has provided the fiscal space required to address the immediate health and financial demands of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan as a result of the support given by Pakistan’s development partners.

    According to the ministry, $3,688 million in debt has been suspended and rescheduled overall under the DSSI framework, which covers the period from May 2020 to December 2021.

    Pakistan has so far reached 93 agreements and signed them with 21 bilateral creditors for the restructuring of its liabilities under the G20 DSSI framework, totaling a delay of nearly $3,150 million.

    The above-mentioned agreements have been signed, bringing the total to $3,257 million. The G20 DSSI’s remaining agreements are currently the subject of negotiations.

  • Pakistan aims to enhance Saudi oil facility to $3.6 billion

    Pakistan aims to enhance Saudi oil facility to $3.6 billion

    A spokesperson for the Petroleum Division said that Pakistan is in talks with Saudi Arabia to increase the size of an oil facility on deferred payments from its current $1.2 billion to $3.6 billion.

    According to The News, when former Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Riyadh in October of last year, Saudi Arabia made a $4.2 billion support agreement, which included a $1.2 billion oil loan facility for Pakistan.

    Syed Zakria Ali Shah, joint secretary of international and joint ventures at the Pakistani petroleum division, revealed that the division was attempting to increase the value of its current facility with Saudi Arabia from $1.2 billion to $3.6 billion.

    Pakistan receives monthly oil deliveries worth $100 million under the current Saudi oil facility with deferred payment. Oil prices were low when the deal was struck, but because of their exponential rise, we are currently negotiating with the Saudis to increase their oil facility from $100 million to $300 million every month.

    A member of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) group, the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC), Shah claimed Saudi Arabia was also assisting Pakistan in using another existing oil financing facility.

    The last framework agreement for this facility was signed between our economic affairs division and ITFC on February 21, 2022, according to Shah. “The government of Pakistan has this facility for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports under the framework agreement with ITFC since 2017–18,” he said.

    The facility will cost a total of $4.5 billion over three years, from 2022 to 2024, or roughly $1.5 billion per year on a best-effort basis, the official continued.

  • What to expect from the upcoming budget 2022-23

    What to expect from the upcoming budget 2022-23

    Pakistan is escalating efforts in order to revive the stalled loan from International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, as the prerequisites are steadily being completed.

    The revival of the bailout will provide much-needed relief in order to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat and avoid default as Pakistani currency has plummeted 9 per cent in the last month, recording the poorest performance among Asian currencies.

    According to Geo, the key policy rate was recently raised by 150 basis points to 13.75 per cent, while the price of fuel has now risen by Rs60 a litre in less than a month and is being sold at from Rs209 to Rs212 (depending on the area).

    In an interview with a private channel, the finance minister discussed the government’s decision to raise petroleum product pricing, saying that despite the difficult decision, the government is still losing money on gasoline and diesel.

    These moves are highly affecting the masses, but they are essential as the IMF programme is crucial to fix the country’s economy. Also, petroleum prices are projected to continue to rise along with power tariff.

    Increase in income tax

    An increase in income tax is a major policy recommendation from the international lender in the approaching budget for the fiscal year 2022-23.

    All suggestions are expected to enhance Pakistan’s tax income.

    The IMF issued the following rules for Personal Income Tax (PIT) in its February conditions:

    1. Lower the number of tax bands.
    2. Cut tax credits and allowances (excluding disabled and old persons, as well as Zakat receipts).
    3. Implement special tax processes for very small taxpayers.
    4. Increase the number of people who pay taxes. As the change maintains the present PIT threshold, low-income households will be safeguarded (almost three times income per capita).

    If these policy recommendations for the forthcoming budget are enacted, the tax system will be simplified and the income tax regime will be more progressive.

    These recommendations are anticipated to increase the country’s tax revenue. It will also make the system more progressive, as people with higher incomes will be required to pay more.

    Salaried class

    The burden on the salaried class, which is already heavily under pressure, may be increased. It will make working less appealing because a large portion of the wage will be devoted to direct personal income tax.

    The IMF proposed taxing the upper-middle class and wealthy individuals with monthly incomes ranging from Rs104,000 to Rs1 million at a uniform rate of 30 per cent.

    The idea demonstrates inequality in taxation, and if approved, it might leave the majority of salaried workers worse off in the face of double-digit inflation.

    On the other hand, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenues Miftah Ismail categorically stated last month that the government would not add to the burden on the salaried class and pensioners in the coming budget. 

    According to sources, the maximum rate of 30 to 35 per cent for salaried and business class individuals earning Rs20 million per year could be increased.

    Special tax proposal for small taxpayers

    Imposing a tax on small taxpayers can overcome the long-term structural problems and correct internal and external imbalances. Our tax-to-GDP ratio has remained below 11 per cent, which is lower than regional standards.

    Two-thirds of our overall taxation is made up of indirect taxation. This level of indirect taxation is not only excessive, but it also makes the system less progressive.

    Currently, a labourer pays the same amount of GST as the country’s richest man.

    Agriculturalists and real estate barons are the most important import consumers. As a result, the lack of taxation in agricultural and real estate contributes to the underlying imbalances in the external sector.

    Low-income households

    Low-income households are expected to be protected from policy interventions after the government publishes the upcoming budget, as the Personal Income Tax (PIT) threshold of three times per capita income would stay in place.

    Genuine taxpayers can also decrease their tax payments by clever investments under the Income Tax Ordinance 2001, taking into account all of the foregoing.

    In the fiscal year 2022-23, policymakers must aim to increase the tax net and the tax-to-GDP ratio as there is no chance for the country to progress without it.

    Pakistan must pay $21 billion in foreign debt payments by next year, according to the Finance Minister, while the current account deficit is $10-12 billion.

    He said, “We will also try to tilt away from the wealthy elite towards to low incoming masses, I will impose more taxes on the wealthy, but no taxes will be levied on the salaried class”.

    The wealthy and capable must prepare to pay their fair share of taxes, or the country will soon be back on the IMF’s doorstep.

  • 40-50 per cent hike expected in gas tariff

    40-50 per cent hike expected in gas tariff

    The government plans to hike the system gas tariff by up to 50 per cent as part of its efforts to gain access to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.

    The Ministry of Energy anticipates the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) determining the revenue requirement for the coming fiscal year in June. As per The News, which cited sources, the tariff increase will take effect on July 1, 2022.

    Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC) and Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), according to an Energy Ministry official, have suffered massive combined losses of Rs550 billion in recent years.

    Both are losing money since the system gas rate has not been raised in a long time. SNGPL is expected to lose Rs350 billion, while SSGC is expected to lose roughly Rs200 billion.

    OGRA will now calculate the system gas tariff under the modified OGRA statute. The IMF has encouraged the government to ensure that gas firms do not lose money as a result of the gas tariff’s stagnation, as well as to follow the modified OGRA law in its entirety.

    It’s worth noting that the government raised the price of petroleum goods by Rs30 per liter last week after the IMF stated that the bailout package would not be resumed unless the country ended petroleum product subsidies.

  • SBP shortens car loan tenure to deflate import bill

    SBP shortens car loan tenure to deflate import bill

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreased the consumer lending duration for vehicles on May 24, bringing it to a maximum of three years for cars with engine displacements greater than 1,000cc and five years for those with engine displacements less than 1,000cc.

    “The maximum tenure of auto finance facility is reduced from five (5) years to three (3) years for vehicles above 1,000 cc engine displacement and from seven (7) years to five (5) years for vehicles up to 1,000 cc engine displacement,” read the circular.

    The SBP decided to change the Prudential Regulations for Consumer Financing (PRCF) in its circular Letter No. 19 of 2022:

    Other amendments issued previously, via BPRD Circular Letter No. 29 dated September 23, 2021, will now be applicable on financing for all locally assembled/manufactured vehicles, including financing for vehicles with up to 1,000 cc engine capacity and locally assembled/manufactured electric vehicles, according to the central bank.

    “However, the regulatory treatment of Roshan Apni Car product communicated earlier to RDA participant banks will continue to remain effective,” read the circular.

    “The maximum tenure of auto finance facility is reduced from five (5) years to three (3) years for vehicles above 1,000 cc engine displacement and from seven (7) years to five (5) years for vehicles up to 1,000 cc engine displacement,” read the letter.

    Other amendments issued previously, via BPRD Circular Letter No. 29 dated September 23, 2021, will now be applicable on financing for all locally assembled/manufactured vehicles, including financing for vehicles with up to 1,000 cc engine capacity and locally assembled/manufactured electric vehicles, according to the central bank.

    “However, the regulatory treatment of Roshan Apni Car product communicated earlier to RDA participant banks will continue to remain effective,” read the circular.

  • SBP hikes interest rate by 150 basis points to control inflation

    SBP hikes interest rate by 150 basis points to control inflation

    The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) approved a 150 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, pushing it to 13.75 per cent to control inflation.

    It is worth noting that this is the maximum level of interest rate since 2011 when it was 14 per cent.

    The central bank mentioned in a statement that after the last MPC meeting, preliminary estimates indicate that growth in FY22 has been considerably higher than predicted.

    On May 23, the MPC agreed to hike the policy rate by 150 basis points to 13.75 per cent. “This action, together with much needed fiscal consolidation, should help moderate demand to a more sustainable pace while keeping inflation expectations anchored and containing risks to external stability.

    “External pressures remain elevated and the inflation outlook has deteriorated due to both home-grown and international factors. Domestically, an expansionary fiscal stance this year, exacerbated by the recent energy subsidy package, has fueled demand and lingering policy uncertainty has compounded pressures on the exchange rate”.

    “Globally, inflation has intensified due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed supply disruptions caused by the new Covid wave in China. As a result, almost all central banks across the world are suddenly confronting multi-year high inflation and a challenging outlook.”

    The MPC stated that raising interest rates will help to protect external and economic stability.

    “Since the last MPC meeting, secondary market yields, benchmark rates and cut-off rates in the government’s auctions have risen, particularly at the short end. The MPC noted that the market rates should be aligned with the policy rate and in case of any misalignment after today’s policy decision, the SBP would take appropriate action”.

    According to the report, overall inflation climbed from 12.7 per cent (year on year) in March to 13.4 per cent in April, led by consumable food products and core inflation. “The rise in core inflation reflects strong domestic demand and second-round effects of supply shocks,” it noted.

    The MPC believes that when power and fuel subsidies are phased out, inflation will spike momentarily and remain strong through FY23 before falling steeply in FY24. “This baseline outlook is subject to risks from the path of global commodity prices and the domestic fiscal policy stance,” it said.

  • PM Shehbaz rejects OGRA’s proposal, petrol price to remain unchanged till April 30

    PM Shehbaz rejects OGRA’s proposal, petrol price to remain unchanged till April 30

    Pakistan’s new Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif on Friday dismissed the proposal from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to raise the price of petroleum products for the fortnight. The recent decision is aimed at providing relief to the public affected by inflation.

    It is worth noting that the present government’s choice to maintain the same prices will oblige it to provide another substantial subsidy till the end of April 2022.

    Earlier, OGRA suggested to the Finance Division that the price of petrol be increased by Rs21.50 and that of diesel be hiked by Rs51.30 in view of the current petroleum levy and general sales tax (GST).

    Read more: Massive hike of Rs83.5 for petrol, Rs119 for diesel proposed by OGRA

    The authority also proposed a hike of Rs83.50 per liter of petrol and Rs119.88 per liter of diesel considering the federal government’s recommended petroleum levy of Rs30 and 17 per cent GST, as per the official statement.