Tag: Monetary Policy

  • Analysts expect further 150 basis points cut in interest rate by SBP next week

    Analysts expect further 150 basis points cut in interest rate by SBP next week

    Analysts predict that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to maintain its dovish stance, potentially implementing a third consecutive reduction in its key policy rate, supported by slowing inflation and improved macroeconomic indicators.

    The SBP is set to announce its key policy rate on Thursday, September 12. In its previous two meetings, the central bank has cumulatively reduced the rate by 250 basis points.

    Brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited (AHL) anticipates a 150 basis point cut, which would lower the policy rate to 18 per cent, a level last observed in February 2023 when the rate fell to 17 per cent.

    According to Business Recorder, AHL’s report, based on a recent poll, reveals that 93 per cent of respondents expect a rate reduction, while 7 per cent foresee no change.

    In July, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had already cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 19.5 per cent. At that time, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad noted a downward trend in inflation.

    August 2024 saw Pakistan’s headline inflation decrease to 9.6 per cent year-on-year, down from 11.1 per cent in July, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    This return to single-digit inflation for the first time in three years has resulted in a real interest rate of approximately 1,000 basis points, providing further room for a rate cut, AHL suggests.

    JS Global echoes this sentiment, predicting that the easing inflation supports the MPC’s case for another reduction in September, with a projected cut of 150 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 18 per cent.

    Topline Securities’ CEO, Mohammed Sohail, expects a rate cut between 100 and 200 basis points, while Abdullah Farhan, Head of Research at IGI Securities, foresees a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points, driven by the recent decline in inflation.

    Farhan also projects that inflation could rise to 13-14 per cent by year-end due to base effects, with the policy rate potentially declining to 16 per cent by December.

    Ismail Iqbal Securities also supports the view that real rates remain significantly positive, indicating potential for a further rate cut. The firm anticipates a 100 basis point reduction in the upcoming MPC meeting.

    Alongside the downward inflation trend, analysts note improvements in external indicators. The trade deficit narrowed slightly to $3.6 billion in the first two months of FY25. The current account deficit has significantly decreased to $162 million in July, largely due to a 48 per cent year-on-year increase in remittances, which has helped stabilise the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar.

  • State Bank of Pakistan cuts policy rate to 20.5%

    State Bank of Pakistan cuts policy rate to 20.5%

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reduced its key policy rate by 150 basis points to 20.5 per cent, marking the first rate cut in nearly four years.

    The move, announced on Monday, aligns with market analysts’ expectations and comes just ahead of the country’s annual budget for 2024-25.

    Since June 2023, the central bank had maintained borrowing costs at a record 22 per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) highlighted that while the significant decline in inflation since February was generally anticipated, the inflation figures for May were better than expected.

    The MPC also observed that underlying inflationary pressures are easing due to the tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation efforts.

    This trend is evident from the continued moderation in core inflation and the improvement in inflation expectations among both consumers and businesses, according to recent surveys.

    Despite acknowledging some upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook, particularly from upcoming budgetary measures and uncertainties regarding future energy prices, the MPC remains confident that the cumulative impact of previous monetary tightening will help keep inflationary pressures in check.

  • SBP expected to cut policy rate on Monday

    SBP expected to cut policy rate on Monday

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to convene on Monday, June 10, to deliberate on the nation’s monetary policy. This crucial meeting will be closely watched by market participants and economic analysts.

    Following the MPC meeting, the SBP is expected to release its monetary policy statement via a press release later the same day.

    In the most recent MPC meeting held on April 29, the committee opted to maintain the interest rates at a historic high of 22 per cent, marking the seventh consecutive meeting where rates remained unchanged.

    Speculation is rife among market analysts that the SBP may reduce its policy rate by 100 basis points (bps). If this anticipated reduction materialises, it would be the first rate cut in nearly four years, signalling a potential shift in the SBP’s approach after an extended period of stringent measures aimed at combating rampant inflation.

    The MPC’s decision is set to precede the announcement of the federal budget for 2024-25, adding further significance to Monday’s meeting.

    A potential rate cut could indicate a strategic move to stimulate economic growth and provide relief to businesses and consumers alike in the run-up to the new fiscal year.

  • US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady for sixth consecutive meeting

    US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady for sixth consecutive meeting

    The US Federal Reserve has once again left interest rates unchanged, maintaining its current rate at 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

    This marks the sixth consecutive meeting where the central bank has opted to hold steady, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent inflation concerns.

    In a statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, the central bank acknowledged that while inflation has eased over the past year, it remains elevated.

    “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress towards the Committee’s 2 per cent inflation objective,” the FOMC noted.

    The Committee indicated that it does not plan to reduce the target range until it has greater confidence that inflation is consistently trending towards the 2 per cent goal.

    This stance has kept interest rates at a 23-year high since July last year, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s focus on managing inflation risks.

    The decision to leave rates unchanged aligned with market expectations, which had largely anticipated a rate pause.

    In a related development, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow its pace of quantitative tightening starting June 1.

    The Fed will reduce the cap on Treasury securities rolling off its balance sheet to $25 billion per month, down from the previous cap of $60 billion. However, the pace of runoff for mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion per month.

    The FOMC’s decision did not significantly alter market expectations for the trajectory of interest rates in 2024.

    The market remains divided on whether a rate cut will occur by September, with about 50/50 odds. As of now, only one rate cut is fully priced in for the entire year.

    It’s worth noting that at the beginning of 2024, the market had priced in an 80 per cent chance of a rate cut starting in March, with a total of six cuts projected throughout the year.

    This shift in expectations underscores the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions as it navigates the ongoing challenges of inflation and economic stability.

  • SBP holds key policy rate at 22% for seventh consecutive time

    SBP holds key policy rate at 22% for seventh consecutive time

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced on Monday that it is maintaining its key policy rate at 22 per cent, marking the seventh consecutive meeting with no changes to the rate.

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its meeting, discussed ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation measures.

    The committee noted that these measures have contributed to noticeable improvements in both inflation and the external economic position. This comes against a backdrop of moderate economic recovery.

    The MPC’s statement following the meeting acknowledged that, while inflation has begun to improve, it remains high.

    The committee also mentioned that global commodity prices seem to have stabilised, indicating resilience in global economic growth.

    However, the committee highlighted a number of uncertainties. It pointed out that recent geopolitical events have created additional uncertainty in the global economic outlook.

    Additionally, the upcoming budgetary measures might affect short-term inflation trends.

    Given these factors, the MPC concluded that the current monetary policy stance should be maintained to achieve its inflation target of 5 to 7 per cent by September 2025.

  • SBP likely to hold interest rate at record 22% amid IMF negotiations

    SBP likely to hold interest rate at record 22% amid IMF negotiations

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain its record 22 per cent interest rate at its upcoming policy meeting on Monday.

    This marks the seventh consecutive meeting with rates held steady, as Pakistan navigates discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new long-term funding arrangement.

    The central bank’s decision comes ahead of an IMF Executive Board meeting to discuss a $1.1 billion disbursement, the final tranche of a $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement.

    A Reuters poll of 14 analysts predicts the SBP will hold its rate, though there are mixed forecasts within the group.

    Four analysts anticipate a 100-basis-point (bps) cut, while two expect a 50-bps cut. Eight believe the SBP will cut rates before securing a new IMF programme.

    The central bank’s next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for June 10, potentially before Pakistan’s expected new IMF agreement.

    Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb mentioned that discussions with the IMF for a longer-term programme will begin next month, aiming for a staff-level agreement by early July.

    Pakistan’s last rate hike was in June 2023 to combat inflation and meet IMF requirements. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March showed a 20.7 per cent increase from the previous year, with a peak of 38 per cent in May.

    However, inflation is slowing, partly due to the “base effect,” with April’s CPI expected to be around 17.5 per cent, according to businessman Arif Habib.

    The SBP’s monetary policy decisions will consider various factors, including inflation trends and geopolitical tensions affecting fuel prices.

    Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, suggests rates won’t be cut until a new IMF programme is in place.

    Looking ahead, Mustafa Pasha, Chief Investment Officer at Lakson Investments, predicts a small rate reduction in the current quarter, with significant cuts in the September quarter.

    According to Business Recorder, this is driven by the need to roll over approximately 6.7 trillion rupees in domestic treasury bills in late 2024 and expected stabilization in inflation and foreign exchange inflows.

    He forecasts that the interest rate could settle around 17 per cent by December.

  • PSX hits new high amid optimistic economic trends

    PSX hits new high amid optimistic economic trends

    The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) soared to yet another record high on Wednesday, buoyed by positive economic indicators.

    A decrease in inflation sparked expectations of monetary easing, seen as a significant boost to commercial activity and, consequently, corporate earnings.

    Closing at 67,756.03 points, the benchmark KSE-100 index surged by a substantial 869.77 points or 1.30 per cent.

    Investors were particularly drawn to the cyclical sector, with significant investments flowing into cement and steel companies.

    This interest was largely fueled by reports indicating a rise in both local and international cement dispatches for March.

    However, sectors such as transport, technology, communication, and commercial banking also garnered attention from investors.

    Additionally, the government’s privatisation initiatives, particularly the proposed sale of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), injected optimism into the market.

    There’s a prevailing belief that these companies could experience improved profitability and efficiency under private ownership.

    Notably, on Tuesday, the Privatisation Commission initiated the process of selling off Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), inviting expressions of interest (EOIs) from potential buyers.

  • SBP maintains policy rate at 22% for sixth consecutive time

    SBP maintains policy rate at 22% for sixth consecutive time

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has opted to maintain the key policy rate at 22 per cent, marking its sixth consecutive decision to uphold the status quo.

    In its statement released on Monday, the MPC affirmed its decision, stating, “At its meeting today, the MPC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 22 per cent.”

    While acknowledging a visible decline in inflation as anticipated in the latter half of Fiscal Year 2024 (H2-FY24), the MPC underscored the persistently high level of inflation and the associated risks, despite a notable deceleration in February. This cautious stance is deemed necessary to steer inflation towards the target range of 5–7 per cent by September 2025.

    Against a backdrop of uncertain inflation projections, major central banks worldwide, including those in advanced and emerging economies, have remained conservative in their monetary policy approaches, as highlighted in the MPC statement.

    Emphasising the importance of sustained targeted fiscal consolidation and timely realisation of planned external inflows, the MPC reiterated that its assessment hinges on these factors.

    Furthermore, the latest economic indicators indicate a moderate upturn in economic activity, primarily driven by a rebound in agricultural output. The external current account balance has outperformed expectations, bolstering foreign exchange reserves despite subdued financial inflows. However, inflation expectations among businesses have steadily risen since December, with consumer expectations inching up in March. Additionally, while global commodity prices have generally remained stable, escalating oil prices, attributed partly to ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, present a notable exception.

    Given the uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook, compounded by potential upward pressure from administered price adjustments or fiscal measures, the MPC deems it prudent to maintain the current monetary policy stance for the time being.

  • SBP sees surge of over $17 million in forex reserves

    SBP sees surge of over $17 million in forex reserves

    The latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) revealed a notable rise in the country’s foreign exchange reserves. During the week ending March 8, 2024, SBP’s reserves increased by $17.2 million, marking a 0.22 per cent growth, reaching a total of $7.91 billion.

    Additionally, Pakistan’s overall reserves experienced a surge, ascending by $131.3 million, or 1.01 per cent, week-on-week (WoW), to a sum of $13.15 billion. This increase was further complemented by a rise in reserves held by commercial banks, which climbed by $114.1 million, or 2.23 per cent, to reach $5.24 billion.

    In a significant development, the second review of the stand-by arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is slated to take place from March 14 to 18, 2024. This review holds particular importance as it marks the final assessment under the SBA. Upon reaching a staff-level agreement, the final tranche of $1.1 billion will be disbursed, subject to approval by the Executive Board of the IMF.

    It is noteworthy that in the current fiscal year, Pakistan has witnessed a substantial increase in its total liquid foreign reserves, amounting to $3.99 billion, or 43.57 per cent. Similarly, the ongoing calendar year has seen a rise of $0.48 billion, or 3.77 per cent.

  • Pakistan’s forex reserves dip by $173 million, SBP cites debt repayments

    Pakistan’s forex reserves dip by $173 million, SBP cites debt repayments

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reported a decrease of $173 million in its foreign exchange reserves on a weekly basis, revealing a total of $8.04 billion as of February 2, according to data released on Thursday.

    The country’s overall liquid foreign reserves are reported to stand at $13.09 billion, with commercial banks holding net foreign reserves amounting to $5.05 billion.

    The SBP has identified debt repayments as the primary factor contributing to the decline in reserves. In an official statement, the SBP stated, “During the week ending on 2-Feb-2024, SBP’s reserves decreased by US$ 173 million to US$ 8,044.0 million due to debt repayments.”

    This follows a trend from the previous week when Pakistan’s central bank reserves experienced a decrease of $54 million. The ongoing challenges related to debt servicing continue to impact the nation’s foreign exchange reserves.