Tag: month-on-month

  • December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    In December, inflation is expected to surpass the 30 per cent threshold, driven by the recent increase in gas prices and the persisting adverse base effect, which continues to impact the consumer price index (CPI).

    The headline inflation for December is projected to settle at approximately 30.11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 1.18 per cent month-on-month (MoM), in contrast to the previous month’s figures of 29.2 per cent YoY and 2.7 per cent MoM.

    This monthly inflation rate is significantly lower than the 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM.

    Consequently, the average yearly inflation for the first six months of FY24 is estimated to be 28.87 per cent YoY, compared to 25.05 per cent YoY in the same period of FY23.

    The surge in inflation can be attributed to the adverse base effect and the notable increase in gas prices, which were not fully realised in the previous month.

    Conversely, food inflation is expected to exhibit a marginal decrease of 0.29 per cent MoM, driven primarily by the decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes, chicken, and oil.

    Additionally, the transport index is forecast to undergo a 4 per cent MoM decrease, mainly due to the relief in petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices.

    Post-December, inflation is anticipated to decline at a relatively faster pace, supported by the favorable base effect, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and other administrative measures.

    The December spike is attributed to the lingering effects of the overdue gas price hike. Notably, unforeseen climate events, volatility in global commodity prices, especially oil, and external account pressures pose significant upside risks to the inflation outlook.

    Global oil prices are on the rise amid challenges in Red Sea shipping, potentially threatening the inflation outlook.

    Moreover, the successful completion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, coupled with additional loan programmes, remains crucial.

    The outstanding amount of $1.8 billion under the stand-by arrangement (SBA) is yet to be released.

    The accompanying chart illustrates the yearly inflation trajectory based on different MoM CPI scenarios. At 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, yearly inflation is projected to fall below the 22 per cent policy rate by February–March 2024.

    By the end of FY24, with 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, it is expected to decrease to 15.29 per cent and 19.37 per cent, respectively, a significant change from the previous month’s forecasts of 12.9 per cent and 17.5 per cent.

    Considering the last 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM, the real interest rate is anticipated to remain in negative territory by the end of FY24.

  • Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    In October, Pakistan witnessed a year-on-year headline inflation rate of 26.9 per cent, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday.  

    This figure represents a notable decrease from the previous month’s reading of 31.4 per cent in September. Additionally, the month-on-month inflation rate for October showed a 1.1 per cent increase. 

    When considering the average inflation from July to October, it amounted to 28.48 per cent, a contrast to the 25.48 per cent recorded during the same period the previous year. 

    In its most recent ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, the Ministry of Finance projected that consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for October would fall within the range of 27 per cent to 29 per cent.  

    The ministry anticipated that inflation would exhibit a more contained trend compared to the elevated levels observed during the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. 

    The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics further distinguished between urban and rural inflation rates. In urban areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation increased to 25.5 per cent in October 2023, marking a decline from the 29.7 per cent observed in the previous month and the 24.6 per cent recorded in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation experienced a 1.1 per cent increase in October 2023, compared to a 1.7 per cent increase in the previous month and a 4.5 per cent increase in October 2022. 

    Similarly, in rural areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation rose to 28.9 per cent in October 2023, which represented a decrease from the 33.9 per cent recorded in the previous month and the 29.5 per cent in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased by 1.1 per cent in October 2023, in contrast to a 2.5 per cent increase in the previous month and a 5.0 per cent increase in October 2022. 

  • Mobile phone imports in Pakistan drop by nearly 70%

    Mobile phone imports in Pakistan drop by nearly 70%

    According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan’s import of mobile phones has decreased by 68.29 per cent during the first eight months of the current fiscal year (2022-23) compared to the same period last year.

    The value of mobile phones imported from July to February (2022-23) was US $447.855 million, whereas it was US $1412.445 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

    In February 2023, the import of mobile phones decreased by 76.73 per cent compared to February 2022. The imports for February 2023 were valued at US $33.054 million, whereas the exports for February 2022 were US $142.033 million.

    Furthermore, the data shows that the import of mobile phones witnessed a month-on-month decline of 36.39 per cent during February 2023, as compared to January 2023, with imports valued at US $51.960 million.

  • Pakistan records 13.8 per cent inflation in May

    Pakistan records 13.8 per cent inflation in May

    The latest data provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on June 1, inflation continued to rise in May 2022, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based reading coming in at 13.8 per cent year on year, up from 13.4 per cent the previous month and 10.9 per cent in May 2021.

    In May 2022, inflation climbed by 0.44 per cent month over month, compared to 1.6 per cent the previous month and 0.1 per cent in May 2021. This brings average inflation in 11MFY22 to 11.29 per cent year over year, up from 8.83 per cent in 11MFY21.

    Rising prices have emerged as a major source of concern for the economy of the South Asian country, which is grappling with dwindling foreign exchange reserves and a growing import bill.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked the main interest rate by 150 basis points to 13.75 per cent last month in an attempt to combat economic headwinds.

    The existing administration, on the other hand, has indicated that it will partially remove subsidies by raising petroleum product tariffs by Rs30 per liter, a move that is projected to raise inflation.

    As per a report from Brecorder, on a month-on-month basis, Inflation in Urban areas increased by 0.3 per cent in May 2022 as compared to an increase of 1.6per cent in the previous month and increase of 0.2per cent in May 2021.

    In the meantime, CPI inflation in urban areas grew 12.4 per cent year over year in May 2022, compared to 12.2 per cent the previous month and 10.8 per cent in May 2021.

    It climbed by 0.3 per cent month over month in May 2022, compared to a 1.6 per cent increase the previous month and a 0.2 per cent increase in May 2021.

    In rural areas, CPI inflation climbed by 15.9per cent year over year in May 2022, compared to 15.1 per cent the previous month and 10.9 per cent in May 2021. It climbed by 0.6 per cent month over month in May 2022, compared to an increase of 1.6 per cent the previous month and a fall of -0.03 per cent in May 2021.

    In May 2022, the SPI inflation grew by 14.1 per cent year over year, compared to 14.2 per cent a month earlier and 19.7 per cent in May 2021. On a month-over-month basis, it climbed by 0.6 per cent in May 2022, compared to 1.5 per cent a month earlier and 0.8 per cent in May 2021.

  • Eid-ul-Fitr 2022: Here’s why Pakistan is paying a lot more than last year for clothes, food

    Eid-ul-Fitr 2022: Here’s why Pakistan is paying a lot more than last year for clothes, food

    Cities are decked with spectacular illumination around shopping malls, major streets, and side lanes as Eid shopping begins. Despite growing inflation, there is a lot of hustle in commercial areas.

    But do you know how much higher we are paying for everything this year, from food to clothing, than we did last year?

    Undoubtedly, the PTI-led government struggled to contain inflation, which experts said, was the outcome of record-high global commodity prices and 51 per cent devaluation of the Pakistani rupee (PKR).

    In January 2022, inflation climbed by 13 per cent year on year basis compared to 12.3 per cent in the previous month and 5.7 per cent in January 2021. It is pertinent to mention that inflation reached an all-time high of 14.6 per cent in January 2020.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in March 2022 over the same month a year ago, according to the inflation bulletin released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The index remained higher compared to the preceding month during five out of the past six months.

    Inflation Comparison – January 2022

    General CPI inflation, increased by 13.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 12.3 per cent in the previous month and 5.7 per cent in January 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.4 per cent in January 2022 as compared to decrease of -0.02 per cent in the previous month and a decrease of -0.2 per cent in January 2021.

    Urban CPI inflation, increased by 13.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 12.7 per cent in the previous month and 5.0 per cent in January 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.1 per cent in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 0.3 per cent in the previous month and a decrease of -0.2 per cent in January 2021.

    Rural CPI inflation, increased by 12.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 11.6 per cent in the previous month and 6.6 per cent in January 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.9 per cent in January 2022 as compared to a decrease of -0.5 per cent in the previous month and a decrease of -0.3 per cent in January 2021.

    Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on a year-on-year basis increased by 24.0 per cent in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 26.2 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 6.4 per cent in January 2021. WPI inflation on a Month-on-month basis increased by 0.6 per cent in January 2022 as compared to a decrease of -0.2 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 2.5 per cent in a corresponding month i.e. January 2021.

    Urban Consumer Price Index (UCPI)

    The Urban Consumer Price Index of January 2022 increased by 0.06 per cent over December 2021 and increased by 12.99 per cent over the same month of the last year (January 2021).

    Month-on-Month Inflation

    Main contributors to month-on-month and year-on-year percentage changes are mentioned below:

    Increase in prices of food items: Pulse Masoor (6.13 per cent), Gram whole (4.79 per cent), Fruits (4.11 per cent), Besan (3.82 per cent), Pulse Gram (3.44 per cent), Pulse Mash (3.37 per cent), Wheat (2.68 per cent), Pulse Moong (1.88 per cent), Meat (1.78 per cent) and Rice (1.28 per cent).

    Increase in prices of garments and other items: Woolen Readymade Garments (6.67 per cent), Solid Fuel (5.16 per cent), Hosiery (1.93 per cent), Motor Fuel (1.75 per cent), Cleaning & Laundering (1.59 per cent), Washing soap/Detergents/Match Box (1.46 per cent) and Liquefied Hydrocarbons (1.29 per cent).

    Year-on-Year Inflation – January 2021

    Edible items

    Increased: Cooking Oil (54.33 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (47.4 per cent), Mustard Oil (46.68 per cent), Pulse Masoor (41.3 per cent), Fruits (28.35 per cent), Gram Whole (24.7 per cent), Meat (22.38 per cent), Chicken (17.08 per cent), Pulse Gram (15.67 per cent), Beans (15.37 per cent), Pulse Mash (12.46 per cent) and Vegetables (11.58 per cent).

    Garments and others

    Increased: Electricity Charges (56.20 per cent), Liquefied Hydrocarbons (53.35 per cent), Motor Fuel (36.22 per cent), Footwear (25.47 per cent), Cleaning & Laundering (22.03 per cent), Washing soap/Detergents/Match Box (17.95 per cent), Motor Vehicle Accessories (14.04 per cent), Woolen Readymade Garments (13.03 per cent) and Plastic Products (11.72 per cent).

    Year-on-Year Inflation – March 2022

    CPI National for the month of March, 2022 increased by 12.72 per cent over March, 2021. The Urban CPI recorded an increase of 11.94 per cent while Rural CPI recorded an increase of 13.88 per cent.

    Edible items in urban areas

    Increased: Tomatoes (148.65 per cent), Mustard Oil (59.91 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (49.56 per cent), Cooking Oil (48.05 per cent), Pulse Masoor (38.32 per cent), Vegetables (34.92 per cent), Fruits (32.00 per cent), Gram whole (25.37 per cent), Meat (23.68 per cent), Chicken (19.59 per cent) and Beans (13.62 per cent).

    Edible items in rural areas

    Increased: Tomatoes (158.82 per cent), Cooking Oil (63.47 per cent), Mustard Oil (57.2 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (56.43 per cent), Vegetables (45.62 per cent), Fruits (37.80 per cent), Pulse Masoor (37.46 per cent), Meat (25.19 per cent), Beans (17.38 per cent), Wheat Flour (16.22 per cent), Chicken (15.09 per cent) and Tea (11.74 per cent).

  • Pakistan’s forex reserves inch up to $17.05 billion

    Pakistan’s forex reserves inch up to $17.05 billion

    The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign reserves saw inflows of $36 million in the week ending April 16, 2022, representing a 0.3 per cent increase week over week.

    According to the SBP weekly update posted on Thursday, the country’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $16.9 million (+0.1 per cent) to $17.045 billion on April 16, 2022, up from $17.028 billion the previous week. SBP reserves rose by $36.1 million to $10.88 billion (+0.3 per cent), up from $10.85 billion the week before.

    Likewise, commercial banks’ net foreign reserves stood at $6.1 billion, down $19.3 million (-0.3 per cent) on a weekly basis.

    Read more: Pakistani rupee plunges by Rs1.05 against the US dollar

    In the interbank market on Thursday, however, the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) resumed its downward trend versus the US Dollar (USD). It fell by Rs1.04 to the dollar, Rs1.15 to the Australian Dollar (AUD), Rs2.04 to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Rs2.42 to the Pound Sterling (GBP), and Rs2.96 to the Euro (EUR).