In a recent Bloomberg survey conducted among Pakistani finance professionals, incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan emerged as the leading choice to oversee the country’s economic recovery.
Despite being barred from contesting the upcoming February 8 election, Khan’s enduring popularity was cited as a crucial factor by respondents, who believe he could implement market-focused reforms in the long term.
The survey, which included 12 traders, economists, and analysts from major brokerages, placed three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif in the second position. Respondents acknowledged Sharif’s experience in government and speculated that his alignment with the powerful military contributed to his standing.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a member of the influential Bhutto clan, secured a distant third place, with some survey participants expressing reservations about dynastic politics.
Bloomberg Economics conducted an analysis of Pakistan’s misery index, combining inflation and unemployment rates, revealing that Sharif’s party had a better track record in managing the economy over the past three decades compared to rivals, including Khan.
Despite Khan’s three court convictions and election disqualification, questions about the legitimacy of the upcoming polls are surfacing among independent observers and voters.
With almost 129 million eligible voters set to cast their ballots, concerns are growing about the electoral system’s integrity in the absence of the country’s most popular politician.
Pakistan’s National Assembly has completed a full term only three times in its 76-year history, and political observers note rising discontent with the electoral system in Khan’s absence.
Khan, convicted of graft in August, received another jail sentence on Tuesday for his involvement in publicising a classified diplomatic cable. On Wednesday, he and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were sentenced to 14 years in jail for a case related to the illegal selling of state gifts.
As Khan faces legal challenges, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz are gaining support from voters. Sharif’s return from exile last year, widely seen as a deal with the military, has boosted his popularity, particularly in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.
The respondents to the Bloomberg survey unanimously agreed that Pakistan’s economic survival hinges on a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan. Half of them believe the country can withstand six months without a bailout, while the ongoing nine-month IMF programme is set to conclude in March, with about $1 billion in dollar-denominated debt due in April.
Key findings from the January survey include expectations of 2.65 per cent economic growth in the fiscal year starting July, the government’s estimate of 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent expansion in the current fiscal year, a forecasted moderation of inflation to 25.05 per cent by the fiscal year ending June (currently at about 30 per cent), and a consensus that Pakistan cannot survive for more than a year without an IMF bailout.
