Tag: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

  • Track and trace system failure threatens Pakistan’s tobacco industry

    Track and trace system failure threatens Pakistan’s tobacco industry

    Amid the increase in trade of non-duty-paid cigarettes, representatives from the Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) on Monday expressed profound apprehensions regarding the sustainability of their business.

    They attributed their concerns to ‘inappropriate’ policy measures.

    The recently released data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Index unveiled a significant and alarming trend within the legitimate tobacco sector.

    According to the report, the production of the legitimate tobacco sector experienced a forty-fold decline compared to the overall LSM output between July 2023 and November 2023.

    Interestingly, despite this decline, the consumption of cigarettes has remained stagnant.

    This troubling trend highlights the adverse impact of policy decisions that disproportionately affect the legitimate tobacco industry.

    The representatives emphasised the necessity for a comprehensive and balanced approach to ensure a level playing field for the sector, ultimately securing its long-term sustainability.

    Despite the implementation of a Track and Trace System (TTS), the representatives pointed out the rising incidence of fake stamps being affixed to counterfeit packs of leading cigarette brands.

    According to APP, Qasim Tariq, Senior Business Development Manager, revealed that approximately 850 million counterfeit cigarette sticks are currently being sold across Pakistan, resulting in a substantial loss of around Rs5.7 billion.

    This rise in counterfeiting raises serious questions about the efficacy of the much-lauded track and trace system, which is yet to be implemented across local cigarette manufacturers in Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

    The representatives urged law enforcement agencies (LEAs) to conduct extensive enforcement at the retail level to tackle this growing menace.

    Additionally, the representatives expressed concerns about a recent misleading report circulating in the media regarding missed revenue collection by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

    They refuted the claims in the report, stating that they are not only false but also raise questions about the intentions behind publishing such information.

    The report suggested that the illicit sector is less than 10 per cent across Pakistan, contradicting the FBR’s claim of illicit trade being over 36.5 per cent for the period in question.

    Furthermore, the report alleged that government revenue declined due to fiscal changes in the excise structure but failed to present the complete picture.

    The representatives clarified that from 2012–16, the government switched to a 2-tier structure from a 3-tier structure, causing revenues to fall by more than 25 per cent.

    The subsequent increase in excise in 2015-16 led to illicit trade hovering close to 50 per cent of the market. To combat this, the government reintroduced a 3-tier system, increasing revenues by more than 40 per cent and discouraging the illicit cigarette trade.

    The representatives emphasised the need for an extensive government-led national anti-illicit trade strategy, effective fiscal measures, and strict enforcement against illicit trade across the value chain, with a key focus on the retail level.

  • Pakistan’s key industries report 3.63% output increase

    Pakistan’s key industries report 3.63% output increase

    In November 2023, Pakistan’s Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) experienced a notable monthly growth of 3.63 per cent, reaching a production index of 114.85, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).  

    This marks an increase from the October 2023 figure of 110.83. 

    On an annual basis, LSMI output demonstrated a year-on-year rise of 1.59 per cent, contrasting with the November 2022 recorded index of 113.05. 

    However, when considering the cumulative data for the first five months of Fiscal Year 2024 (5MFY24), LSMI exhibited a marginal decline of 0.8 per cent when compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. 

    Various sectors played a significant role in contributing to this overall decline of -0.80 per cent. Notable contributors to the growth include food (0.53), garments (3.18), petroleum products (0.43), chemicals (0.32), pharmaceuticals (1.56), and cement (0.17).  

    Conversely, sectors such as tobacco (-0.80), textiles (-2.48), paper and board (-0.11), iron and steel products (-0.09), electrical equipment (-0.45), automobiles (-1.70), and furniture (-1.65) experienced contractions. 

    The provisional quantum indices of LSMI for November 2023, based on the 2015-16 reference year, have been formulated using the latest data provided by the relevant source agencies. 

  • Pakistan’s weekly inflation soars beyond 44%

    Pakistan’s weekly inflation soars beyond 44%

    In the latest economic developments, Pakistan has witnessed a surge in weekly inflation for the third consecutive week, marked by a notable increase in the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group.

    The SPI for the said group witnessed a significant rise of 1.36 per cent week over week (WoW) during the week concluded on January 11, 2024.

    Adding to the economic landscape, the SPI showcased a remarkable year-over-year (YoY) increase of 44.16 per cent, comparing the current statistics with the corresponding period from the previous year.

    Last week’s SPI for the Combined Group demonstrated a WoW increase of 0.81 per cent.

    Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reveals that the combined index stood at 317.92 in comparison to 313.66 on January 4, 2024.

    Notably, this index was recorded at 220.53 a year ago, specifically on January 12, 2023.

    Among the 51 items analysed, 21 experienced an increase in average prices, while prices for 8 items decreased, and 22 items remained stable.

    The noteworthy price hikes during the week were observed in tomatoes (15.63 per cent), onions (8.94 per cent), chicken (6.42 per cent), electricity charges for Q1 (5.11 per cent), and eggs (4.31 per cent).

    Conversely, significant decreases were noted in the prices of potatoes (5.92 per cent), vegetable ghee (1 KG) (0.84 per cent), sugar (0.43 per cent), vegetable ghee (2.5 KG) (0.29 per cent), and mustard oil (0.26 per cent).

    The weekly SPI percentage change, when categorised by income groups, indicated a uniform increase ranging between 1.2 per cent and 1.34 per cent across all quantiles. The lowest-income group experienced a 1.2 per cent rise, while the highest-income group recorded a 1.34 per cent increase.

    On a yearly basis, the analysis of SPI change across various income segments revealed an overall increase ranging from 36.06 per cent to 47.48 per cent.

    The lowest-income group witnessed a yearly rise of 36.06 per cent, whereas the highest-income group recorded a significant increase of 42.71 per cent.

  • Weekly inflation in Pakistan remains above 40% for sixth consecutive week

    Weekly inflation in Pakistan remains above 40% for sixth consecutive week

    In the week concluding on December 21, weekly inflation exhibited a marginal easing but persisted above 40 per cent for the sixth consecutive week. 

    Official data released for this week highlighted heightened consumer costs for eggs, firewood, and pulses. 

    The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) revealed a 0.51 per cent decline in the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) from the previous week, attributed to lower prices of potatoes, petrol, diesel, tomatoes, and sugar.

    Despite this reduction, the SPI inflation rate remained notably high at 43.16 per cent, surpassing last year’s figure of 42.68 per cent for the same week. 

    This elevated inflation has adversely impacted the purchasing power of consumers, particularly those in lower and middle-income brackets. 

    The decline in SPI was driven by significant drops in the prices of potatoes (13.17 per cent), petrol (4.97 per cent), diesel (4.68 per cent), tomatoes (3.45 per cent), sugar (1.16 per cent), and other essential items.

    Conversely, considerable increases were observed in the prices of eggs (10.4 per cent), firewood (1.23 per cent), onions (1.19 per cent), and various pulses. 

    Out of the 51 essential items in the SPI, 35.29 per cent experienced price increases, 17.65 per cent saw decreases, and 47.06 per cent remained stable during the week.

    ConsumeRsin the lowest income bracket, earning up to Rs17,732 per month, faced a substantial SPI inflation rate of 35.13 per cent. 

    Meanwhile, the higher-income group, spending more than Rs44,175 per month, encountered an even higher SPI inflation rate of 40.93 per cent. 

    The middle quintile, ranging from Rs22,889 to Rs29,517, experienced a weekly inflation rate of 46.46 per cent.

    Various consumer goods displayed a mix of price increases, decreases, and stability, as indicated by the latest PBS data. 

    Notably, the price of a dozen eggs rose by 10.42 per cent, reaching Rs388.7, while firewood’s 40kg bundle increased by 1.23 per cent, totaling Rs1146. 

    Onion prices rose by 1.2 per cent, and various pulses witnessed increases.

    In contrast, potato prices per kilogramme dropped significantly by 13.17 per cent, reaching Rs76.8/kg, and petrol recorded a decrease of 4.97 per cent per litre, settling at Rs268.41. Hi-Speed Diesel also saw a decline of 4.68 per cent, reaching Rs277.29 per litre. 

    Tomatoes and refined sugar experienced decreases of 3.45 per cent and 1.16 per cent, respectively.

    Several essential commodities, including bread, beef, mutton, and various household items, maintained stable prices during the week with no significant fluctuations.

  • Minister urges officials to use PBS monitoring app for ensuring price stability across provinces 

    Minister urges officials to use PBS monitoring app for ensuring price stability across provinces 

    In a bid to ensure consistent prices across provinces, Muhammad Sami Saeed, the Caretaker Minister for Planning, urged Deputy Commissioners and Assistant Commissioners on Tuesday to rigorously utilise the Decision Support System (DSS) app developed by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for effective price monitoring. 

    According to a press release issued today, Muhammad Sami Saeed chaired a meeting of the National Price Monitoring Committee (NPMC) in Islamabad.  

    The gathering focused on essential aspects such as the prices and supply of essential commodities, the margin between wholesale and retail prices, and the availability of necessary items. 

    During the meeting, the Chief Statistician from PBS presented the price movements of 51 essential items collected from the markets in 17 cities.  

    Minister Saeed stressed the importance of maintaining price stability across provinces and urged participants to oversee the supply of essential items, available stock levels, and pricing mechanisms. 

    Highlighting the critical role of administrative oversight and monitoring, Minister Saeed emphasised the need for vigilance in ensuring price stability.  

    The meeting also explored the potential utilization of remote sensing technology provided by SUPARCO to enhance monitoring of cropped areas and predict the supply situation of essential food items in the provinces. 

    Encouraging the exploration and implementation of remote sensing capabilities, the minister aimed to strengthen monitoring and oversight capacities.  

    He underscored the importance of continued vigilance and proactive measures to address fluctuations in commodity prices and ensure a smooth supply chain. 

    Representatives from the Ministry of Industries and Commerce, utility stores, and provincial governments attended the meeting, signifying a collaborative effort to maintain stability in commodity prices. 

  • Pakistan’s inflation soars to 29.2% in November, exceeding October figures

    Pakistan’s inflation soars to 29.2% in November, exceeding October figures

    In November, Pakistan’s headline inflation surged to 29.2 per cent year-on-year, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, surpassing the October figure of 26.9 per cent. 

    On a monthly basis, there was a 2.7 per cent increase. The average inflation for July-November reached 28.62 per cent, up from 25.14 per cent in the same period the previous year.

    CPI inflation in urban areas rose to 30.44 per cent in November 2023, compared to 25.5 per cent in the previous month and 21.6 per cent in November 2022. On a monthly basis, it increased to 4.34 per cent, reflecting a substantial jump from the previous month and November 2022.

    Conversely, rural CPI inflation stood at 27.53 per cent year-on-year in November 2023, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but an increase from November 2022.

    Anticipated by several brokerage houses, the November inflation spike, driven partly by a rise in gas tariffs, aligns with predictions. 

    JS Global and Arif Habib Limited had forecasted CPI-based inflation to be around 28.26 per cent and 28.2 per cent, respectively.

    Beyond inflation, Pakistan faces economic challenges. A recent staff-level agreement with the IMF, subject to board approval in December, will provide access to SDR 528 million. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects inflation to decrease in the coming months due to improved supply conditions.

    Despite maintaining a key policy rate of 22 per cent, the State Bank of Pakistan projects a downward trajectory for inflation, citing fiscal consolidation, commodity availability, and exchange rate alignment as offsetting factors against risks like global oil price volatility and increased gas tariffs.

    Caretaker Finance Minister Dr Shamshad Akhtar expressed optimism about gradual inflation reduction, attributing it to improved financial management. The government believes effective policies will contribute to an overall improvement in economic conditions.

  • Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    Pakistan’s economy picks up pace: GDP growth hits 2.13%

    In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan’s economy exhibited signs of recovery with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.13 per cent, marking a significant improvement from the 0.96 per cent recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. 

    These estimates gained approval during the 107th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting convened on the same day.  

    To align with the structural benchmarks outlined in the IMF-SBA program, PBS engaged in consultations with stakeholders and data providers. They presented revised GDP figures for both the fiscal year 2022-23 and the first quarter of 2023-24 to the NAC. 

    In a noteworthy development, the NAC also sanctioned the incorporation of quarterly national accounts into the country’s statistical system. 

    Revisiting the GDP figures for the fiscal year 2022-23, the growth rate has been revised to -0.17 per cent, a departure from the provisional report of 0.29 per cent. 

    Breaking down the growth by industry, the 107th NAC greenlit a sector-specific methodology for compiling quarterly GDP. This includes a series of quarterly growth rates for various industries spanning from the first quarter of 2016-17 to the first quarter of 2023, with 2015-16 serving as the base year. 

    For the first quarter of 2023-24, the agricultural sector exhibited growth of 5.06 per cent, the industrial sector 2.48 per cent, and services 0.82 per cent. 

    In agriculture, crops recorded a robust growth of 6.13 per cent, with a notable 11.16 per cent increase in important crops.  

    The expansion is attributed to a rise in the sowing area, particularly for rice, cotton, and maize, with increases of 21 per cent, 11 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively. Sugarcane saw an 11 per cent decline, but this was offset by growth in other major crops. 

    The industrial sector, which experienced a continuous decline in the preceding fiscal year except for a modest growth in the second quarter, reversed its trend in the first quarter of 2023-24, registering a growth of 2.48 per cent. Mining and quarrying posted a positive growth of 2.15 per cent, based on quarterly production in the mining sector.  

    Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) demonstrated growth of 0.93 per cent according to the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM). Construction industry growth was estimated at 1.73 per cent, with a notable 15.38 per cent increase in cement production. 

    In services, the overall growth was 0.82 per cent. Wholesale and retail trade, reliant on the output of agriculture, manufacturing, and imports, was estimated at 3.05 per cent due to positive growth in agriculture and industry.  

    Transport grew by 1.7 per cent, based on quarterly data. Information & Communication, previously negative, showed a growth of 2.4 per cent, primarily due to a low base and quarterly information received from sources. 

    The finance and insurance industry reported a growth of -12.79 per cent, driven by a decline in the output of insurance companies and brokers, along with high growth in the deflator.  

    Public administration reported -16.65 per cent growth in the quarter, with high deflators contributing to a decline in constant prices.  

    Negative growth in education and human health and social work activities was largely influenced by a decrease in government budget data along with a high deflator. 

  • Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    In October, Pakistan witnessed a year-on-year headline inflation rate of 26.9 per cent, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday.  

    This figure represents a notable decrease from the previous month’s reading of 31.4 per cent in September. Additionally, the month-on-month inflation rate for October showed a 1.1 per cent increase. 

    When considering the average inflation from July to October, it amounted to 28.48 per cent, a contrast to the 25.48 per cent recorded during the same period the previous year. 

    In its most recent ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, the Ministry of Finance projected that consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for October would fall within the range of 27 per cent to 29 per cent.  

    The ministry anticipated that inflation would exhibit a more contained trend compared to the elevated levels observed during the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. 

    The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics further distinguished between urban and rural inflation rates. In urban areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation increased to 25.5 per cent in October 2023, marking a decline from the 29.7 per cent observed in the previous month and the 24.6 per cent recorded in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation experienced a 1.1 per cent increase in October 2023, compared to a 1.7 per cent increase in the previous month and a 4.5 per cent increase in October 2022. 

    Similarly, in rural areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation rose to 28.9 per cent in October 2023, which represented a decrease from the 33.9 per cent recorded in the previous month and the 29.5 per cent in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased by 1.1 per cent in October 2023, in contrast to a 2.5 per cent increase in the previous month and a 5.0 per cent increase in October 2022. 

  • Annual inflation increases by 29.65% in Pakistan, driven by rising gas prices 

    Annual inflation increases by 29.65% in Pakistan, driven by rising gas prices 

    According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) report released on Friday, the weekly inflation, as measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), exhibited a decline of 0.33 per cent during the week ending on October 19. 

    The Combined Index, as reported by PBS, stood at 277.11, down from 278.04 on October 19, 2023, with a notable contrast to the index of 213.74 recorded on October 27, 2022, a year ago.

    Among the 51 items monitored, the analysis indicates that the average prices of 14 items experienced an increase, 17 items saw a decrease, and 20 items remained stable. 

    Significant reductions were observed in the prices of chicken (10.19 per cent), onions (4.4 per cent), rice IRRI-6/9 (3.84 per cent), bananas (3.64 per cent), gur (3.4 per cent), pulse masoor (2.36 per cent), sugar (2.22 per cent), and mustard oil (2.17 per cent). 

    Conversely, notable price increases were recorded for tomatoes (20.81 per cent), potatoes (3.33 per cent), eggs (1.63 per cent), salt powdered (0.91 per cent), garlic (0.77 per cent), tea prepared (0.67 per cent), bread plain (0.56 per cent), and mutton (0.28 per cent).

    In a year-on-year comparison, the trend reveals an increase of 29.65 per cent in overall inflation, with substantial hikes in gas charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), cigarettes (94.46 per cent), chilies powder (84.11 per cent), rice basmati broken (78.51 per cent), wheat flour (77.49 per cent), sugar (63.22 per cent), rice irri-6/9 (62.83 per cent), gents sponge chappal (58.05 per cent), gur (57.73 per cent), and salt powdered (54.84 per cent). 

    In contrast, price decreases are observed in tomatoes (31.90 per cent), onions (24.88 per cent), pulse gramme (5.82 per cent), mustard oil (4.16 per cent), and vegetable ghee (1 1 kg) (0.92 per cent).

  • Knitwear tops the list: Pakistan’s exports surge by 25.54%

    In the fiscal year 2023–24, Pakistan’s exports, denominated in rupees, experienced a notable 25.54 per cent increase during the first quarter (Q1) compared to the previous year, as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    Between July and September 2023, exports amounted to Rs2,013,533 million, marking a 25.54 per cent boost from the same period in the previous year, according to PBS’s provisional data.

    Looking at year-on-year figures, September 2023’s exports surged by 31.27 per cent, totaling Rs737,295 million, compared to Rs561,643 million in September 2022.

    On a month-to-month basis, exports grew by 6.06 per cent, reaching Rs737,295 million in August 2023.

    Key export categories in August 2023 included knitwear (Rs103,029 million), readymade garments (Rs74,608 million), bed wear (Rs69,234 million), cotton cloth (Rs51,891 million), oil seeds, nuts, and kernels (Rs46,571 million), cotton yarn (Rs33,815 million), rice and others (Rs32,324 million), towels (Rs25,116 million), rice basmati (Rs19,008 million), and miscellaneous articles, excluding towels and bed wear (Rs16,922 million).

    On the other hand, imports during July to September 2023 (FY2023-24) totaled Rs3,560,763 million, showing a decrease of 2.45 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

    In a year-on-year comparison, imports into Pakistan during September 2023 amounted to Rs1,189,167 million, a 2.52 per cent decline from September 2022.

    Month-on-month data indicated a 10.62 per cent increase in imports in September 2023 compared to August 2023.

    Key imported commodities in September 2023 included petroleum products (Rs162,087 million), petroleum crude (Rs146,179 million), liquefied natural gas (Rs75,331 million), palm oil (Rs61,388 million), plastic materials (Rs49,628 million), electric machinery and apparatus (Rs44,699 million), iron and steel (Rs44,191 million), mobile phones (Rs37,093 million), iron and steel scrap (Rs27,299 million), and pulses/leguminous vegetables (Rs22,208 million).