Tag: policy rate

  • Pakistan’s inflation expected to rise due to policy decisions and economic uncertainty, warns Finance Ministry

    Pakistan’s inflation expected to rise due to policy decisions and economic uncertainty, warns Finance Ministry

    Finance Ministry has warned that inflation in Pakistan is set to rise further due to a second-round effect of policy decisions made earlier this year to raise energy and fuel prices, the central bank’s policy rate, and the depreciation of the rupee to secure IMF funding.

    The recent political and economic uncertainties in the country are causing inflationary expectations to rise. The short-term rate of inflation measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) hit a record 46.65 per cent last week, while monthly inflation recorded by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 31.6 per cent in February – the highest in six decades.

    The ministry expects inflation to stay at an elevated level due to market frictions caused by the relative demand and supply gap of essential items, exchange rate depreciation, and recent upward adjustments of administered prices of petrol and diesel. Production losses due to floods have not yet been fully recovered, especially those of major agricultural crops. The shortage of essential items has persisted due to these factors.

    Moreover, the delay of stabilisation program has exacerbated economic uncertainty, due to which inflationary expectations have remained strong. The Economic Adviser’s Wing of the finance ministry has also conceded ineffective policy measures and the haplessness of the authorities in containing the inflationary spiral.

    A report from ministry warns that bulk buying during Ramzan might cause the demand-supply gap and result in escalation of essential items prices, although the government is taking steps to ensure a smooth supply of essential items. The report also warned that being largely dependent on prevailing climatic conditions, as witnessed last year, the delay in rains and early heatwave forecast by the Pakistan Met Office in April and May could adversely impact wheat production.

    On a positive note, the report said that despite challenges and uncertainties, the economy was showing continuous signs of resilience as depicted through contained fiscal and current account deficits during the current fiscal year.

  • Weekly inflation in Pakistan jumps to 41.07% due to edible oil, sugar prices

    Weekly inflation in Pakistan jumps to 41.07% due to edible oil, sugar prices

    According to data provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday, edible oil, sugar, and vegetables helped drive the weekly inflation up to 41.07 percent on an annual basis.

    Sensitive Price Index (SPI) measurements of short-term inflation were still on the high side and would go up much more once customers start to feel the full effects of increased electricity tariffs.

    The cost of bananas, chicken, sugar, cooking oil, gas, and cigarettes increased for the week ending March 2, despite a 0.30 percent weekly decline in inflation.

    Of the 51 items, 32 saw price increases, nine saw price decreases, and 10 witnessed no change in price.

    The items whose prices rose the greatest during the reviewed week in comparison to the same week last year were: onions (311.17 per cent), cigarettes (165.86 per cent), gas charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), diesel (93.82 per cent), petrol (77.89 per cent), eggs (77.83 per cent), rice irri-6/9 (76.96 per cent), rice basmati broken (75.55 per cent), pulse moong (73.30 per cent), bananas (72.66 per cent), chicken (64.70 per cent) and tea Lipton (64.53 per cent).

    Moreover, the highest year-on-year fall was recorded in the prices of tomatoes (56.29 per cent), chillies powdered (7.42 per cent).

    The prices of bananas (7.34 per cent), long cloth (3.44 per cent), energy saver (3.33 per cent), 1Kg vegetable ghee (2.48 per cent), gur (2.03 per cent), cooked daal (1.87 per cent), Lipton tea (1.79 per cent), match box (1.66 per cent), lawn printed (1.52 per cent), 5-litre cooking oil (1.45 per cent), and sugar (1.07 per cent) experienced the biggest week-on-week increase.

    On the other hand, the prices of onions (13.24 per cent), eggs (6.11 per cent), garlic (4.24 per cent), chicken (2.00 per cent), tomatoes (0.59 per cent), gram pulse (0.38 per cent), and potatoes (0.33 per cent) decreased compared to the previous week. However, LPG (1.84 per cent) and petrol (1.80 per cent) saw an increase in prices.

    The government, under the IMF’s conditions, has been implementing strict measures to cool the economy and curb inflation. The policy rate increase and the general sales tax increase from 17 per cent to 18 per cent are expected to further increase the retail price of consumer goods.

    To generate revenue and bridge the fiscal deficit, the government has already taken several measures, including adopting a market-based exchange rate, increasing fuel and power tariffs, withdrawing subsidies, and imposing more taxes.

    As a result of these measures, the government has revised its annual inflation rate projection from 26 per cent to 31 per cent.

  • SBP jacks up policy rate by 300 bps to 20%

    SBP jacks up policy rate by 300 bps to 20%

    In a meeting held today, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased the policy rate by 300 basis points (bps) to 20 per cent as a measure to curb inflationary pressure.

    The meeting’s result matched the market’s predictions, with analysts expecting the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee to implement a significant hike of 200-300 basis points.

    During today’s meeting, the MPC acknowledged that recent fiscal adjustments and depreciation of the exchange rate have resulted in a significant deterioration of the near-term inflation outlook. This has also led to an increase in inflation expectations, as indicated by the latest survey results.

    The committee anticipates that inflation will continue to rise in the coming months due to the impact of these adjustments, before gradually decreasing. The projected average inflation rate for this year is now estimated to be between 27 per cent to 29 per cent, compared to the November 2022 projection of 21 per cent to 23 per cent. Given this context, the MPC stressed the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations and implementing strong policy measures.

    On the external front, the MPC acknowledged that while there has been a substantial reduction in the current account deficit (CAD), there are still some vulnerabilities present. In January 2023, the CAD decreased to $242 million, the lowest level since March 2021.

  • Pakistan accepts IMF pre-condition to increase interest rate by 2%

    Pakistan accepts IMF pre-condition to increase interest rate by 2%

    Pakistan has agreed to increase its policy (interest) rate by two percent or 200 basis points, as a pre-condition for the release of $1.1 billion in critical funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The funding is part of a $6.5 billion bailout package.

    The increase is based on rates set by the government in an auction to raise domestic debt and will push the interest rate to 19 per cent. This is just below the previous record of 19.5 per cent set in October 1996.

    Sources from the Ministry of Finance stated that there had been technical-level discussions between Islamabad and the IMF review mission and that it was expected that Islamabad would increase the interest rate by two percent. Most of the pre-conditions set by the IMF had been fulfilled, according to these sources.

    Sources also indicated that discussions on some issues related to the power sector were in the final stages, after which a staff-level agreement with the IMF would be reached. Additionally, Pakistan provided a detailed briefing to IMF officials on the sources of foreign exchange until June.

  • Gold price increases by Rs1,200 to Rs187,200 per tola

    Gold price increases by Rs1,200 to Rs187,200 per tola

    The per tola price of 24-karat gold witnessed an increase of Rs1,200 on Saturday and was traded at Rs187,200, up from Rs186,000 the previous trading day. The price of 10 grammes of 24-karat gold also increased by Rs1,029 to Rs160,494 according to All Sindh Sarafa Jewellers Association.

    Although gold is often used as an inflation hedge, it is quite vulnerable to monetary tightening, which raises the opportunity cost of owning the bullion, which is typically a non-yielding asset like other precious metals. In other words, a precious metal investment cannot be “put to use” to try to make a profit.

    According to the jewellers association, gold in the local market continued to be “undercost” by Rs3,000 a tola when compared to the Dubai market, maintaining its Friday trend.

    Dealers claimed it was difficult to determine if the potential increase in the policy rate of 100–200 basis points (BPS) had been included in the price of the yellow metal.

    According to a research report from Pearl Securities, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) may raise the policy rate by 100 to 200 basis points to reduce ongoing inflationary pressures.

  • SBP raises policy rate to 14-year-high of 15 per cent

    SBP raises policy rate to 14-year-high of 15 per cent

    In an attempt to calm the economy, control inflation, and support the beleaguered rupee, the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to raise the policy rate by 125 basis points (bps) to 15 per cent on Thursday.

    The previous policy rate at the same level was in 2008, so the current policy rate is at a level that is 14 years higher. The committee also disclosed that, in order to improve the transmission of monetary policy, interest rates on EFS and LTFF loans are now tied to the policy rate.

    Following the MPC meeting on Thursday, SBP Acting Governor Dr Murtaza Syed gave a virtual press conference where he announced the monetary policy decision. He told the media that the rate of inflation has been rising at its highest rate since 1970.

    “Globally, inflation is at multi-decade highs in most countries, and central banks are acting aggressively, putting pressure on most emerging market currencies to depreciate,” he continued.

    He praised recent government decisions, such as ending petroleum subsidies, and claimed that these actions had made it possible to finish the IMF loan programme. Pakistan’s external financing requirements for FY23 will be met thanks to significant additional funding from external sources, which will be stimulated by the anticipated conclusion of the ongoing IMF review.

    Then, during the course of FY23, rupee pressures should ease and the SBP’s FX reserves should gradually resume their prior upward trajectory.

    According to him, monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation will cause GDP growth to moderate to 3–4 per cent in FY23, helping to close the positive output gap and lessen demand-side pressures on inflation.

    The acting governor SBP stated that, according to the MPC’s baseline outlook, headline inflation is likely to remain high in FY23, hovering around 19–20 per cent, before dropping sharply to the target range of 5–7 per cent by the end of FY24, driven by stringent policies, a normalisation of global commodity prices, and advantageous base effects.