Tag: Rate Cuts

  • Political instability, IMF loan conditions threaten Pakistan’s economic growth

    Political instability, IMF loan conditions threaten Pakistan’s economic growth

    In January, Pakistan experienced a boost in economic activity, thanks to the financial aid provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as reported by Bloomberg Economics Tracker.

    However, there are three key developments that may impact future economic conditions.

    Firstly, the aftermath of the inconclusive February 8 election has resulted in persistent political instability, presenting a potential obstacle to new investments.

    Secondly, there is a likelihood of more stringent conditions associated with additional IMF loans. Lastly, there is an increasing probability that the State Bank of Pakistan will delay rate cuts.

    Despite the challenges, January saw a positive trend with a 0.9 per cent increase in economic activity compared to December, breaking a four-month contraction streak.

    The injection of IMF loans and eased trade restrictions contributed to this improvement, enabling increased purchases of essential import supplies.

    Looking ahead, the unresolved election outcome may prolong political uncertainty, affecting potential investments.

    The recent hike in gas prices on February 15 will likely drive inflation higher, further reducing the chances of a March rate cut.

    Considering these developments, Bloomberg Economics is considering revising its growth outlook.

    While Bloomberg currently predicts 2.1 per cent GDP growth through June 2024 (up from a 0.2 per cent contraction in the previous fiscal year), the consensus estimate is 2.5 per cent, and the IMF forecasts 2 per cent.

    It’s essential to note that the Bloomberg Economics monthly tracker assesses inflation-adjusted indicators of activity.

  • Interbank closing: PKR continues winning streak, settles at Rs281.22

    Interbank closing: PKR continues winning streak, settles at Rs281.22

    The Pakistani rupee (PKR) extended its upward trend against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive session, gaining 0.02 per cent in the inter-bank market on Tuesday.

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported that the rupee concluded at Rs281.22 after a rise of Re0.06. In the preceding session on Monday, the rupee had experienced a slight increase, settling at Rs281.28 against the US dollar.

    On a global scale, the US dollar took a pause in its rally on Tuesday, with traders expressing confidence in multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

    This optimism is based on the belief that the slowdown in US inflation is significant.

    Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency realm, bitcoin maintained its position near the highest level since April 2022, driven by growing expectations of the imminent approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF).

    These market movements were influenced, in part, by the New York Fed’s recent Survey of Consumer Expectations, revealing that US consumers’ short-term inflation expectations in December reached the lowest level in almost three years.

    A key reading on US inflation is scheduled later in the week, offering additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential room for interest rate adjustments this year.

    Futures currently indicate the pricing in of nearly 140 basis points worth of easing by the Fed in the coming year.

    Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08 per cent, settling at 102.22, following a 1 per cent increase in the previous week.