Tag: rupee

  • Plastic currency coming soon in Pakistan?

    Plastic currency coming soon in Pakistan?

    Negotiations between Pakistan and the IMF mission for the next instalment of a vital loan will continue to proceed today.

    According to sources quoted by Geo news, IMF officials will be briefed on FBR reforms, tax collection and other issues, as well as more immediate measures to increase tax collection in the current financial year.

    Sources say that State Bank officials will brief the IMF delegation on the plan to issue new plastic notes to prevent fake currency.

    Such currency notes are being used in Far Eastern countries and Switzerland.

    The IMF will also be briefed on reports issued under the United Nations Anti-Corruption Convention.

    The IMF had set a condition for Pakistan to prepare a report from experts on the efficiency of anti-corruption institutions.

    This condition has to be implemented by the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Law.

    The IMF will also be briefed on improving the efficiency of government institutions and privatisation.

  • Knitwear tops the list: Pakistan’s exports surge by 25.54%

    In the fiscal year 2023–24, Pakistan’s exports, denominated in rupees, experienced a notable 25.54 per cent increase during the first quarter (Q1) compared to the previous year, as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    Between July and September 2023, exports amounted to Rs2,013,533 million, marking a 25.54 per cent boost from the same period in the previous year, according to PBS’s provisional data.

    Looking at year-on-year figures, September 2023’s exports surged by 31.27 per cent, totaling Rs737,295 million, compared to Rs561,643 million in September 2022.

    On a month-to-month basis, exports grew by 6.06 per cent, reaching Rs737,295 million in August 2023.

    Key export categories in August 2023 included knitwear (Rs103,029 million), readymade garments (Rs74,608 million), bed wear (Rs69,234 million), cotton cloth (Rs51,891 million), oil seeds, nuts, and kernels (Rs46,571 million), cotton yarn (Rs33,815 million), rice and others (Rs32,324 million), towels (Rs25,116 million), rice basmati (Rs19,008 million), and miscellaneous articles, excluding towels and bed wear (Rs16,922 million).

    On the other hand, imports during July to September 2023 (FY2023-24) totaled Rs3,560,763 million, showing a decrease of 2.45 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

    In a year-on-year comparison, imports into Pakistan during September 2023 amounted to Rs1,189,167 million, a 2.52 per cent decline from September 2022.

    Month-on-month data indicated a 10.62 per cent increase in imports in September 2023 compared to August 2023.

    Key imported commodities in September 2023 included petroleum products (Rs162,087 million), petroleum crude (Rs146,179 million), liquefied natural gas (Rs75,331 million), palm oil (Rs61,388 million), plastic materials (Rs49,628 million), electric machinery and apparatus (Rs44,699 million), iron and steel (Rs44,191 million), mobile phones (Rs37,093 million), iron and steel scrap (Rs27,299 million), and pulses/leguminous vegetables (Rs22,208 million).

  • SBP expected to hike interest rates by at least 150 bps to control inflation

    SBP expected to hike interest rates by at least 150 bps to control inflation

    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to hike interest rates by at least 150 basis points (bps) on Thursday in an effort to curb sky-high inflation and bolster diminished foreign exchange reserves. 

    The central bankas already raised its benchmark rate by 12.25 per cent points to 22 per cent since April 2022, but inflation remains in double digits, at 27.4 per cent in August. The rupee has also depreciated sharply in recent months, reaching an all-time low of 200 rupees per dollar. 

    A Reuters poll of 17 analysts shows that 15 are forecasting a rate hike, with nine predicting an increase of at least 150 bps. The other two analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged. 

    The SBP is under pressure to raise rates in order to cool inflation and attract foreign investment. However, a rate hike could also dampen economic growth, which is already slowing. 

    The central bank is also facing challenges from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has set conditions for the release of further tranches of its $3 billion bailout package. One of these conditions is that the SBP must raise interest rates. 

    The SBP is likely to balance these competing considerations when it makes its decision on Thursday. However, it is clear that the bank is under pressure to take action to address the country’s economic challenges. 

    Here are some additional details about the factors that are likely to influence the SBP’s decision: 

    • Inflation: Inflation remains a major concern for the SBP. The latest data shows that inflation fell slightly in August, but it remains in double digits. The SBP has said that it expects inflation to decline over the next 12 months, but it is unclear whether this will happen without further monetary tightening.  
    • Foreign exchange reserves: The SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have been declining in recent months, reaching a critical level of $10.3 billion in August. The SBP needs to bolster its reserves in order to meet its import obligations and avoid a sovereign debt default. A rate hike could help to attract foreign investment and slow the decline in reserves.  
    • IMF conditions: The IMF has set conditions for the release of further tranches of its bailout package. One of these conditions is that the SBP must raise interest rates. The SBP is likely to comply with this condition in order to secure the IMF’s support. 

    The SBP’s decision on Thursday will be closely watched by markets and investors. A rate hike is likely to be welcomed by those who are concerned about inflation, but it could also dampen economic growth. The SBP is facing a difficult balancing act, and its decision will have a significant impact on the country’s economic outlook. 

  • Second consecutive decline: Gold price drops by more than Rs6,000 per tola

    Second consecutive decline: Gold price drops by more than Rs6,000 per tola

    The price of gold in Pakistan fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as the rupee depreciated against the US dollar. The price of 24 karat gold decreased by Rs6,300 per tola (11.66 grammes) and Rs5,402 per 10 grammes, to settle at Rs232,800 and Rs199,588, respectively.

    The decline in gold prices was in line with the fall in the international market, where the price of gold fell by $9 to settle at $1,931 per ounce. The gold rate has been volatile in Pakistan recently due to political and economic uncertainty, and high inflation.

    The price of silver also fell by Rs100 per tola and Rs85.74 per 10 grammes, to settle at Rs2,800 and Rs2400.5, respectively.

    The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is the main reason for the decline in gold prices in Pakistan. When the rupee weakens, gold becomes more expensive for buyers in Pakistan, who have to pay more rupees to buy the same amount of gold.

    The political and economic uncertainty in Pakistan is also a factor that is contributing to the volatility of gold prices. Investors are unsure about the future of the country, and they are looking to gold as a safe haven investment. This demand for gold is pushing up prices.

    The high inflation in Pakistan is also making gold more expensive. When inflation rises, the value of the rupee decreases, which makes gold more expensive for buyers in Pakistan.

    Overall, the gold rate in Pakistan is expected to remain volatile in the near future due to the factors mentioned above.

  • Inflation in Pakistan stays above 27% despite IMF reforms

    Inflation in Pakistan stays above 27% despite IMF reforms

    Pakistan continues to grapple with soaring inflation, with the rate holding steady at 27.4 per cent in August, according to data released on Friday. This persistent inflationary pressure is partially attributed to the reforms mandated as part of the IMF loan agreement, which have complicated efforts to stabilise prices and curb declines in the national currency, the rupee.

    The South Asian nation is treading cautiously on its path to economic recovery, with a caretaker government at the helm following the approval of a $3 billion loan programme by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July, averting a potential sovereign debt default.

    However, the conditions tied to this bailout, including the relaxation of import restrictions and the removal of subsidies, have contributed to a surge in annual inflation. In May, inflation reached a staggering 38.0 per cent, setting a new record. Concurrently, interest rates have risen, and the rupee has experienced historic lows, with a 6.2 per cent decline in the currency’s value last month.

    While the August data from Pakistan’s statistics bureau indicates a slight easing from July’s 28.3 per cent inflation rate, food inflation remains alarmingly high at 38.5 per cent. Authorities have further exacerbated the situation by raising gasoline and diesel prices to record highs on Friday.

    These worsening economic conditions, coupled with escalating political tensions ahead of a national election scheduled for November, have triggered sporadic protests. Jamaat-e-Islami has announced a nationwide strike in response to the increased power tariffs.

    Every day, Pakistanis are feeling the pinch and struggling to make ends meet. Waseem Ahmed, a bank employee in Islamabad, lamented the plight of the middle class, stating, “More than 60 to 70 per cent of my salary is spent on bills and petrol. Where will we get basic staples from? This is why people are contemplating suicide,” he told Reuters.

    According to ARY News, Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, a Karachi-based brokerage firm, acknowledged that August’s inflation reading aligns with expectations. However, he cautioned that the depreciating rupee and rising energy prices may prevent a significant year-on-year decline in inflation, contrary to earlier government projections that had anticipated a drop to 22 per cent by the end of the fiscal year running until June 31.

    Pakistan’s central bank, in its last monetary policy statement in July, held benchmark interest rates steady at 22 per cent and expressed optimism that inflation would follow a downward trajectory over the ensuing 12 months. However, the current economic challenges present formidable hurdles to achieving that goal.

  • Gold price declines by Rs1,700 to Rs234,500 per tola amidst weakening rupee

    Gold price declines by Rs1,700 to Rs234,500 per tola amidst weakening rupee

    The price of gold in Pakistan continued its downward trend on Monday, having lost a cumulative sum of Rs1,100 per tola throughout the previous week. The All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) provided data indicating that the rate of 24-carat gold declined by Rs1,700 per tola and Rs1,457 per 10 grammes, reaching Rs234,500 and Rs201,046 respectively.

    On the international front, the price settled at $1,945 per ounce after a decrease of $1. The safe-haven bullion traded within a narrow range in the global market due to an agreement reached by US Democrats and Republicans to raise the federal debt ceiling, thereby averting a potential US default, which would have been unprecedented.

    Moreover, recent data suggested that the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates for the 11th consecutive time in June. Consequently, the value of the US dollar surged, negatively impacting the gold price.

    These factors, coupled with ongoing political and economic uncertainty, high inflation, and currency depreciation, contributed to the volatility of the gold rate in Pakistan. As a result, individuals turned to purchasing the precious metal as a safe investment and a hedge.

    In the interbank market, the Pakistani rupee experienced a decrease of Re0.27 or 0.09 per cent against the US dollar on Monday, closing at Rs285.42, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan.

    Furthermore, data shared by the jewellers’ association revealed a decline in the price of silver, which had remained relatively stable in the previous week. The rate of silver fell by Rs50 per tola and Rs42.87 per 10 grammes, reaching Rs2,850 and Rs2,443.41 respectively.

  • Pakistani rupee sinks to record low of Rs308 against US dollar in open market

    Pakistani rupee sinks to record low of Rs308 against US dollar in open market

    On Tuesday, the Pakistani currency experienced a significant decline, reaching a new record low of Rs308 against the US dollar in the open market. This marked a 1 per cent decrease, or Rs3, from the previous day’s closing rate, as reported by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan.

    Consequently, the disparity between the exchange rates in the open market and the inter-bank market widened considerably, reaching a historic high of Rs21 to a dollar. Just a couple of months ago, this difference was in the range of Rs1-3.

    In inter-bank transactions, the central bank stated that the rupee continued its downward trend for the fifth consecutive working day, dropping by 0.21 per cent, or Rs0.59, to a 12-day low at Rs287.15 against the US dollar.

    There has been speculation in the market that the rupee is facing mounting pressure due to the expanding gap between the demand and supply of the US dollar in the currency market.

    In the meantime, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have been consistently depleting and have now reached a critically low level of $4.3 billion. This is concerning because the country requires a comparatively large amount of foreign currency to cover import expenses and repay foreign debt.

    By the end of June 2023, Pakistan has to repay $3.7 billion in foreign debt. Additionally, it needs another $3.7 billion each month to ensure smooth importation of essential goods.

    Currency dealers in the open market have revealed that commercial banks are purchasing dollars in the informal market (kerb market) to settle international payments made through their clients’ credit cards. Furthermore, individuals are acquiring Saudi riyals and US dollars to cover expenses during the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.

    Experts strongly emphasize that the government must persuade the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to resume its $6.7 billion loan programme. Additionally, they urge friendly countries to provide fresh financing, which will help mitigate the risk of defaulting on external debt obligations.

    The resumption of the IMF programme will not only assist Pakistan in averting an imminent default but will also enable the country to attract financing from other global lenders and friendly nations. This new financing will bolster the foreign exchange reserves and aid in the reopening of the partially closed economy.

  • Currency crisis alert: Pakistani rupee could drop to Rs350 against dollar without IMF assistance

    Currency crisis alert: Pakistani rupee could drop to Rs350 against dollar without IMF assistance

    The Pakistani rupee is poised to face a significant downfall, with expectations that it may plummet to as low as Rs350 against the US dollar. This alarming projection has raised concerns among stakeholders, as the weakening currency is anticipated to have far-reaching implications, particularly in terms of inflationary pressures that will disproportionately affect the lower and middle classes.

    According to Geo, the steep devaluation of the rupee, which has already lost approximately 20 per cent of its value this year, positions it among the worst-performing currencies worldwide.

    Experts, including economists Ankur Shukla and Abhishek Gupta, attribute this weakness to a range of factors. Capital flight from Pakistan is intensifying due to the growing apprehension that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may not provide the much-needed bailout required to prevent a fiscal default in the upcoming fiscal year commencing in July.

    The delay in receiving aid, which has been stalled since November, is suspected to be linked to political unrest, further exacerbating the rupee’s decline. The country’s leadership has been plagued by instability since the removal of Imran Khan, Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), through a no-confidence motion vote in April last year.

    Khan’s recent arrest has heightened tensions between him, the government, and the military. Following his imprisonment, the rupee experienced a sharp drop to a record low of 299 per dollar, only to partially recover and stabilize at 285 after his release.

    Multiple experts are warning of an imminent massive drop in the rupee, with some analysts even foreseeing a further 20 per cent depreciation. The currency’s future trajectory heavily depends on the ongoing clashes between Khan and the government, as well as the IMF’s decision regarding financial assistance.

    Adil Ghaffar, CEO at Premier Financial Services Pvt in Karachi, concurs, stating that failure to secure the loan could lead to a slump in the rupee’s value to Rs350 per dollar in June. Market sentiment remains precarious, and economists such as Farooq Pasha highlight the persistent uncertainty surrounding the rupee’s path.

    In the near term, politics will continue to pose a key risk until the elections. The bond market has also been adversely affected, with bond investors growing increasingly nervous as the spread between Pakistan’s dollar bonds and US Treasuries reached a record high of over 35 per cent this month.

    With the looming prospect of the rupee’s significant decline, the economic landscape of Pakistan hangs in a precarious balance.

  • Pakistan rupee recovers by one paisa against US dollar

    Pakistan rupee recovers by one paisa against US dollar

    According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the Pakistani rupee (PKR) strengthened by Rs0.01 against the US dollar in the interbank market on Tuesday.

    The local currency managed to recover and closed at Rs284.96.

    In contrast, the dollar is being traded at Rs290 in the open market.

    It’s worth noting that the rupee had reached a record low of Rs298.93 against the US dollar last week.

    Market speculation suggests that the rupee’s gains were further supported by reduced demand for foreign currency, resulting from a significant import payment between May 9 and 11, coinciding with the period of heightened political drama in the country.

    Reports indicate that the substantial dollar payment for imports had been arranged by the oil refineries. Oil imports constitute approximately one-fourth of the total import bill for a month.

    Earlier, the rupee experienced a sharp decline of 4.71 per cent or Rs14.09 in just two days (May 10-11), hitting a record low of Rs298.93/$ due to worsening political turmoil and deteriorating law and order following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. However, the rupee managed to recover some of its losses after Khan’s release on May 12, as ordered by the court.

  • Gold price soars to an all-time high of Rs217,700 per tola amid economic tensions

    Gold price soars to an all-time high of Rs217,700 per tola amid economic tensions

    The price of gold has soared to an all-time high following a significant slump in the rupee against the dollar, with the country struggling to secure external financing. The data released by the All-Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA) shows that the price of gold (24 carats) has spiked by Rs3,100 per tola and Rs2,656 per 10 grammes, settling at Rs217,700 and Rs186,643 respectively.

    The gold rush is in line with the movement of the rupee, which has fallen 2.44 or 0.85 per cent against the US dollar in the interbank market, and an increase in weekly inflation. Inflation has shot up 0.92 per cent week-on-week and 44.49 per cent year-on-year during the seven-day period that ended on April 6th. Prices of sugar and chicken have surged due to Ramzan, and hoarding has caused a likely uptick in inflation.

    Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, increasing in value as the purchasing power of the dollar declines. Plus, it’s the season of Ramzan, which brings with it a surge in demand for the precious metal. Investors’ attention has shifted towards gold as economic tensions continue to rise, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reviewing external financing commitments from friendly countries before it releases bailout funds. The delay in the revival of the program has negatively impacted the currency market, which is boosting demand for gold.

    The APSGJA also noted that the price of gold in Pakistan is Rs5,000 per tola “undercost” compared to the Dubai market. Thus, the Pakistani gold market is cheaper than the global market. Meanwhile, silver prices in the domestic market have also jumped to historic highs, increasing by Rs30 per tola and Rs25.72 per 10 grams to settle at Rs2,480 and Rs2,126.20, respectively.

    In the international market, the price of gold dropped $6 per ounce, settling at $2,002. Nevertheless, gold’s rise in Pakistan is set to bring a lot of excitement to the local market.