The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded a weekly inflation increase of 0.70 per cent, reaching 28.55 per cent on a year-on-year basis for the week ending June 6.
This represents the lowest rate since October 20, 2022, when SPI inflation stood at 27.1 per cent. Furthermore, short-term inflation surged to an all-time high of 48.35 per cent for the period ending on May 4.
During the week, a total of 51 items were monitored, and their price movements were analysed. Out of these items, 24 (47.06 per cent) experienced price increases, 10 (19.61 per cent) witnessed price decreases, and 17 (33.33 per cent) remained stable.
This table showcases the items that recorded either an increase or decrease in their average prices during the specified week:
Item
Increase/Decrease
Tomatoes
Increase (42.25%)
Onions
Increase (8.70%)
Potatoes
Increase (4.79%)
Wheat flour bag 20 kg
Increase (4.05%)
Gur
Increase (4.01%)
Sugar
Increase (3.48%)
Shirting
Increase (3.02%)
Hi-speed diesel
Increase (2.95%)
Garlic
Increase (1.90%)
Matchbox each
Increase (1.66%)
Curd
Increase (1.43%)
Pulse mash
Increase (1.29%)
Fresh milk
Increase (1.20%)
Rice irri-6/9
Increase (0.74%)
Rice basmati broken
Increase (0.67%)
Mustard oil
Increase (0.59%)
Prepared tea
Increase (0.56%)
Long cloth 57″ Gul Ahmed/Al Karam
Increase (0.51%)
Mutton
Increase (0.40%)
Beef with bone
Increase (0.39%)
Toilet soap
Increase (0.24%)
Powdered milk Nido 390 gm polybag each
Increase (0.13%)
Georgette
Increase (0.08%)
Cooked daal
Increase (0.04%)
Bananas
Decrease (7.51%)
Chicken
Decrease (2.80%)
Eggs
Decrease (1.17%)
LPG
Decrease (0.96%)
Vegetable ghee Dalda/Habib 2.5 kg tin each
Decrease (0.74%)
Cooking oil Dalda or other similar brands, 5L
Decrease (0.72%)
Vegetable ghee Dalda/Habib or other superior quality, 1 kg pouch each
Inflation in Pakistan continues to surge as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded a significant increase, jumping to 42.67 per cent on a year-on-year basis for the week ending on June 1, according to official data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The weekly inflation showed a marginal increase of 0.03 per cent compared to the previous week.
The short-term inflation, measured by the SPI, reached an all-time high of 48.35 per cent for the period ending on May 4, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by the economy. The Combined Index, a comprehensive measure of inflation, stood at 254.13 compared to 254.05 on May 25, 2023, and marked a significant increase from 178.12 recorded on June 2, 2022.
The PBS report revealed that out of the 51 monitored items, the average prices of 19 items increased, 14 items witnessed a decrease, while 18 items remained unchanged during the week under review. This data indicates the volatile nature of prices in the current market.
Analyzing the SPI change across different income groups, the weekly percentage change showed a mixed trend, ranging between -0.1 per cent and 0.12 per cent. However, on a yearly basis, the SPI increased across all quantiles, ranging between 40.2 per cent and 43.49 per cent, suggesting the broad impact of inflation across various income segments.
Additionally, the statistics bureau reported that Pakistan’s annual inflation rose to 37.97 per cent year-on-year in May, further confirming the country’s highest-ever inflationary period. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 36.4 per cent in April, which at the time was already the highest level according to the bureau’s historical records.
Furthermore, the month-on-month rise in May was reported to be 1.58 per cent, with the bureau highlighting significant increases in the prices of vegetables, pulses, and chicken. These factors contribute to the overall rise in the cost of living and put additional strain on households and businesses alike.
The continuous surge in inflation poses significant challenges to the economy, affecting consumers’ purchasing power and increasing the cost of doing business. The government and relevant authorities are urged to take immediate measures to stabilize prices, address supply chain issues, and implement effective policies to alleviate the impact of rising inflation on the population.
As the situation unfolds, policymakers and economists will closely monitor the inflationary trends, devising strategies to bring stability and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and the welfare of the people.
Despite coming down marginally, weekly inflation remains above 45 per cent and stood at 45.72 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis for the week ended on 18th May 2023, showed data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) on Friday.
The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) based inflation for the week ended 11th May 2023, recorded a decrease of 0.16 per cent over the previous week due to a decrease in the prices of food and non-food items.
The year-on-year trend posted an increase due to an increase in the prices of Cigarettes (138.50 per cent), Tea Lipton (114.93 per cent), Potatoes (114.69 per cent), Gas Charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), Bananas (104.44 per cent), Gents Sponge Chappal (100.33 per cent), Wheat Flour (90.77 per cent), Rice Basmati Broken (86.30 per cent), Eggs (85.86 per cent), Rice Irri-6/9 (80.44 per cent), Petrol (79.85 per cent), Diesel (78.68 per cent), Pulse Moong (66.79 per cent), Bread (63.17 per cent), and Pulse Mash (57.06 per cent), while a decrease was observed in the prices of Tomatoes (38.30 per cent), Onions (30.18 per cent), and Chilies Powdered (6.48 per cent).
A decrease was observed in the prices of food items: Onions (9.04 per cent), Garlic (1.76 per cent), Sugar (1.42 per cent), Wheat Flour (1.40 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 2.5kg (0.63 per cent), Mustard Oil (0.48 per cent), Pulse Masoor (0.40 per cent), Pulse Gram (0.12 per cent), and Vegetable Ghee 1kg (0.11 per cent); and non-food items: Diesel (10.38 per cent), Petrol (4.24 per cent), LPG (3.02 per cent), and Firewood (0.89 per cent).
On the other hand, an increase was observed in the prices of Chicken (7.51 per cent), Tea Lipton (4.53 per cent), Gur (2.79 per cent), Eggs (2.29 per cent), Energy Saver (2.22 per cent), Tomatoes (2.11 per cent), Tea Prepared (1.09 per cent), and Curd (1.08 per cent).
During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 23 (45.10 per cent) items increased, 13 (25.49 per cent) items decreased, and 15 (29.41 per cent) items remained stable.
According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) has risen by 1.05 per cent to reach a record high of 48.35 per cent year-on-year for the week ending May 4. The SPI for the aforementioned week was recorded at 254.84 points, compared to 252.2 points the previous week.
Of the 51 monitored items, 30 items experienced an increase in average price, while 9 items decreased, and 12 items remained unchanged during the week.
The items that experienced an increase in average prices on a week-on-week (WoW) basis were chicken (8.91 per cent), potatoes (3.99 per cent), powdered milk (3.81 per cent), pulse gram (1.96 per cent), pulse masoor (1.83 per cent), eggs (1.81 per cent), mutton (1.71 per cent), pulse mash (1.58 per cent), cooked daal (1.36 per cent), and bread (1.13 per cent). The non-food items that saw an increase were gents sponge chappal (58.05 per cent), gents sandal (33.36 per cent), ladies sandal (14.31 per cent), and washing soap (1.27 per cent).
On the other hand, a decline was seen in the prices of onions (16.69 per cent), garlic (3.44 per cent), tomatoes (3.41 per cent), diesel (1.70 per cent), mustard oil (0.99 per cent), LPG (0.96 per cent), cooking oil 5 litre (0.40 per cent), and vegetable ghee 2.5kg & 1kg (0.10 per cent each).
According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), a steep increase in the prices of essential food items such as chicken and petrol has pushed weekly inflation to 47.23 per cent year-on-year for the week ending on April 19. Inflation has risen 0.51 per cent week-on-week, compared to a 0.60 per cent decrease in the previous week.
The rising inflation has been attributed to the increase in sensitive price indicators such as LPG, potatoes, petrol, tea, gur, matchbox, bread, chicken, bananas, broken basmati rice, and rice irri-6/9. However, a major decrease was observed in the prices of tomatoes, onions, garlic, sugar, wheat flour, mustard oil, cigarettes, and pulse gram.
For the week under review, the SPI (Sensitive Price Index) was recorded at 251.83 points, against 250.56 points registered last week and 171.05 points recorded during the week ended April 21, 2022. Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, said that SPI experienced an increase mainly driven by a 4 per cent and 2 per cent increase in the prices of petrol and chicken, respectively.
During the week, the government raised petrol prices by Rs10 per litre, bringing the new price to Rs282 per litre, due to the impact of rising international oil prices and rupee devaluation. Chicken prices have also risen mainly due to increased seasonal demand in Ramadan and the arrival of Eid.
Prices of commodities have risen significantly over the last year on account of devaluation as well as the massive floods that devastated food crops across most of the fertile plains of the country. Different weights are assigned to various commodities in the SPI basket, and prices of commodities have risen on a year-on-year basis. The PBS compiles the SPI by collecting prices of 51 essential items from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country.
During the week under review, out of 51 items, prices of 29 (56.86 per cent) items increased, eight (15.69 per cent) items decreased, and prices of 14 (27.45 per cent) items remained unchanged. The PBS data attributed the year-on-year rise in SPI to the jump in the prices of goods such as cigarettes, wheat flour, gas charges for Q1, tea, diesel, potatoes, bananas, eggs, petrol, broken basmati rice, rice irri-6/9, pulse moong, and plain bread. However, a decrease was observed in the prices of tomatoes and chilli powder.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has reported that for the week ending on April 6, 2023, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) based inflation has increased by 0.92 per cent. This rise is mainly due to an increase in the prices of food items such as chicken (15.87 per cent), sugar (13.48 per cent), potatoes (5.11 per cent), bananas (4.95 per cent), wheat flour (3.10 per cent), gur (2.12 per cent), eggs (1.26 per cent), fresh milk (1.24 per cent), and non-food item long cloth (1.95 per cent).
The year-on-year trend indicates an increase of 44.49 per cent, which is primarily due to a surge in the prices of cigarettes (165.88 per cent), wheat flour (131.72 per cent), gas charges for q1 (108.38 per cent), diesel (102.84 per cent), eggs (98.34 per cent), Lipton tea (97.63 per cent), broken basmati rice (84.92 per cent), bananas (82.23 per cent), petrol (81.17 per cent), irri-6/9 rice (80.61 per cent), moong (68.14 per cent), potatoes (65.95 per cent), maash (56.70 per cent), and onions (55.75 per cent). However, a decrease in prices has been observed for tomatoes (50.39 per cent) and powdered chillies (6.48 per cent).
The SPI for the week under review has been recorded at 252.06 points compared to 249.75 points in the previous week, as per the latest data released by PBS on Friday. During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 27 (52.94 per cent) items increased, seven (13.73 per cent) items decreased, and 17 (33.33 per cent) items remained stable.
The average prices of commodities that have increased during the week over the previous week include chicken (15.87 per cent), sugar (13.48 per cent), potatoes (5.11 per cent), bananas (4.95 per cent), wheat flour (3.10 per cent), gur (2.12 per cent), long cloth 57” Gul Ahmed/Al Karam (1.95 per cent), eggs (1.26 per cent), fresh milk (1.24 per cent), irri-6/9 rice (0.80 per cent), shirting (0.75 per cent), beef with bone (0.71 per cent), broken basmati rice (0.69 per cent), curd (0.60 per cent), toilet soap Lifebuoy (0.56 per cent), lawn printed Gul Ahmed/Al Karam (0.55 per cent), prepared tea (0.44 per cent), powdered salt (0.39 per cent), Georgette (0.36 per cent), Sufi washing soap (0.31 per cent), mutton (0.18 per cent), moong (0.16 per cent), masoor (0.15 per cent), maash (0.09 per cent), cooked beef (0.04 per cent), cooking oil Dalda or other similar brand (sn), 5 litre tin each (0.04 per cent), and cooked daal (0.02 per cent).
The commodities that have recorded a decrease in their average prices are tomatoes (14.96 per cent), onions (12.66 per cent), LPG (3.73 per cent), pulse gram (1.20 per cent), vegetable ghee Dalda/Habib 2.5 kg tin each (0.71 per cent), garlic (0.16 per cent), and mustard oil (0.03 per cent).
Commodity
Year-on-Year Change
Week-on-Week Change
Cigarettes
165.88 per cent
N/A
Wheat flour
131.72 per cent
3.10 per cent
Gas charges for q1
108.38 per cent
N/A
Diesel
102.84 per cent
N/A
Eggs
98.34 per cent
1.26 per cent
Lipton tea
97.63 per cent
N/A
Broken basmati rice
84.92 per cent
0.69 per cent
Bananas
82.23 per cent
4.95 per cent
Petrol
81.17 per cent
N/A
Irri-6/9 rice
80.61 per cent
0.80 per cent
Moong
68.14 per cent
0.16 per cent
Potatoes
65.95 per cent
5.11 per cent
Maash
56.70 per cent
0.09 per cent
Onions
55.75 per cent
12.66 per cent
Tomatoes
-50.39 per cent
-14.96 per cent
Powdered chillies
-6.48 per cent
N/A
Chicken
N/A
15.87 per cent
Sugar
N/A
13.48 per cent
Gur
N/A
2.12 per cent
Long cloth 57” Gul Ahmed/Al Karam
N/A
1.95 per cent
Fresh milk
N/A
1.24 per cent
Shirting
N/A
0.75 per cent
Beef with bone
N/A
0.71 per cent
Curd
N/A
0.60 per cent
Toilet soap Lifebuoy
N/A
0.56 per cent
Lawn printed Gul Ahmed/Al Karam
N/A
0.55 per cent
Prepared tea
N/A
0.44 per cent
Powdered salt
N/A
0.39 per cent
Georgette
N/A
0.36 per cent
Sufi washing soap
N/A
0.31 per cent
Mutton
N/A
0.18 per cent
Masoor
N/A
0.15 per cent
Cooked beef
N/A
0.04 per cent
Cooking oil Dalda or other similar brand (sn), 5 litre tin each
The price of wheat flour has hit an all-time high, and this has caused weekly inflation to surge by 1.80 per cent week-on-week and 46.65 per cent year-on-year.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has attributed this rise in the sensitive price indicator to the increase in prices of several items, including wheat flour, tomatoes, potatoes, and bananas, among others. On the other hand, the PBS has noted a decrease in the prices of chicken, chilli powder, and LPG, among others.
The increase in the price of wheat flour is due to the government’s change in subsidy mechanism, shifting from general subsidy to a targeted subsidy through the Benazir Income Support Programme. This change has led to a 42 per cent increase in the price of a 20kg bag of wheat flour, which has now reached an all-time high of Rs2,586. As we head into Ramadan, food prices are expected to continue rising, and the March 2023 CPI is expected to come in at 35.5 per cent on a YoY basis.
Sticky inflation numbers, along with the stalled International Monetary Fund programme, have pushed the State Bank of Pakistan to raise its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to a 26-year high. The central bank is expected to raise the policy rate by another 100bps to 21 per cent in its upcoming monetary policy committee meeting on April 4. This rate hike is expected to spread massive poverty among the population.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has released data revealing that short-term inflation based on the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) rose to a record 45.64 per cent for the combined income group on a year-on-year basis for the week ending March 16.
This increase was driven by the consistent rise in the prices of essential commodities. However, on a week-on-week basis, short-term inflation increased by 0.96 per cent due to the rising cost of tomatoes, potatoes, cooking oil and fruits.
The SPI is expected to intensify further as the full impact of depreciation, an increase in petroleum products, a hike in general sales tax and higher energy costs has yet to be reflected in official data. Commodity prices are likely to increase rapidly with a spike in demand. The year-on-year SPI surged to 45.5 per cent during the week ending September 1, 2022, and stayed above 40 per cent for the first time since August 18 last year when the reading was 42.31 per cent.
Of the 51 items in the SPI basket, prices of 28 items soared, while those of 11 items decreased, and rates of 12 items remained unchanged. During the week under review, the prices of onions, cigarettes, gas charges for Q1, diesel, tea Lipton, petrol, rice irri-6/9, rice basmati broken, bananas, eggs, pulse moong, wheat flour and bread increased the most over the same week a year ago.
On a week-on-week basis, the biggest change was observed in the prices of tomatoes, tea Lipton, potatoes, bananas, sugar, wheat flour, cooking oil 5 litre, vegetable ghee 2.5 Kg, lawn, diesel, shirting, and petrol. Products whose prices saw the highest decline over the previous week were onions, chicken, garlic, pulse masoor, eggs, LPG, vegetable ghee 1 Kg, pulse gram, pulse mash, pulse moong, and mustard oil.
The government has been taking strict measures, such as hikes in fuel and power tariffs, withdrawal of subsidies, market-based exchange rate, and higher taxation, under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme to generate revenue for bridging the fiscal deficit, which may result in slow economic growth and higher inflation in the coming months. The increase in the policy rate to 20 per cent, general sales tax rate from 17 per cent to 18 per cent on most items, and to 25 per cent on more than 800 imported food and non-food items will further increase the retail prices of consumer goods.
According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday, weekly inflation surged by 1.37 per cent week-on-week and 42.27 per cent year-on-year during the week ended March 9. This marks a 25-week high on an annualized basis, as prices of perishables have started to rise ahead of Ramadan. The surge in the sensitive price indicator (SPI) was attributed to the increase in prices of various commodities, including tomatoes, potatoes, onions, sugar, bananas, cooking oil, wheat flour, vegetable ghee, printed lawn, curd, milk, tea, shirting, broken basmati rice, and powdered salt. Meanwhile, a major decrease was observed in the prices of chicken, garlic, pulse moong, eggs, pulse masoor, LPG, firewood, and pulse gram.
For the week under review, SPI was recorded at 243.87 points, compared to 240.57 points registered last week and 171.41 points recorded during the week ended March 10, 2022. Brokerage Arif Habib Limited noted that this was the highest weekly YoY number since September 8, 2022, when Pakistan recorded a rise of 42.70 per cent YoY on account of an all-time high in the prices of wheat flour following massive flooding across the fertile plains of Punjab and Sindh.
The PBS data attributed the YoY rise in SPI to the jump in the prices of onions, cigarettes, gas charges for Q1, diesel, eggs, rice Irri-6/9, petrol, broken basmati rice, bananas, pulse moong, tea, pulse mash, pulse gram, and bread. Inflation has been rising sharply over the past couple of years, with Pakistanis, particularly those from lower and middle-income groups, struggling to make ends meet.
The sticky inflation numbers, along with the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, have pushed the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to a 26-year high. Pakistan is desperately trying to persuade the IMF to disburse critical $1.1 billion funding, but inflation worries have led the central bank to elevate its interest rates by 10 percentage points since January 2022.
Analysts expect that the recent decisions taken by the government to please the IMF for a meagre $1.1 billion bailout tranche could result in massive poverty, while businesspersons have also not ruled out a default despite fiscal tightening. The YoY SPI increased by 39.09 per cent, 40.98 per cent, 41.79 per cent, 42.53 per cent, and 44.14 per cent respectively for the groups spending up to Rs17,732; Rs17,733-22,888; Rs22,889-29,517; Rs29,518-44,175; and above Rs44,175.
According to official data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan’s weekly inflation has remained high, with an increase of 2.78 per cent week-on-week and 41.54 per cent year-on-year for the seven-day period that ended on February 23.
The latest figures of the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) reveal that the rise is due to an increase in gas prices for Q1 (108.38 per cent), cigarettes (76.45 per cent), bananas (6.67 per cent), chicken (5.27 per cent), sugar (3.37 per cent), cooking oil 5 litre (3.07 per cent), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (2.79 per cent), vegetable ghee 1kg (2.20 per cent) and prepared tea (1.09 per cent).
The government of Pakistan almost doubled the gas charges for up to 3.3719 mmBtu to secure the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval for the $1.1 billion tranche out of the $6.5 billion bailout package under the Extended Fund Facility. Previously, the rate was Rs147.57, which now stands at Rs295.
The PBS attributes the YoY increase in SPI to the rise in prices of onions (372.03 per cent), cigarettes (164.71 per cent), gas charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), chicken (85.65 per cent), diesel (81.36 per cent), eggs (75.81 per cent), rice irri-6/9 (75.41 per cent), rice basmati broken (74.16 per cent), bananas (72.22 per cent), pulse moong (70.39 per cent), petrol (69.87 per cent), tea (62.76 per cent), pulse gram (57.02 per cent), bread (55.36 per cent), pulse mash (53.90 per cent) and LPG (52.59 per cent). However, there was a decrease in the prices of tomatoes (67.93 per cent), chilli powder (7.42 per cent) and electricity charges for Q1 (6.64 per cent).
Analysts had predicted that inflationary pressures would intensify due to tax measures and adjustments in electricity, petroleum and gas prices made by the government to unlock the IMF programme.
Consumers have been facing the burden of rising prices of essential kitchen items, particularly edibles. The average price of 1kg broiler chicken was Rs469.81 during the week under review compared to Rs446.29 last week. For the groups spending up to Rs17,732; Rs17,733-22,888; Rs22,889-29,517; Rs29,518-44,175; and above Rs44,175; WoW SPI increased 2.42, 2.86, 2.32, 2.18, and 3.10 per cent respectively.
The YoY SPI for the expenditure groups went up 37.81, 39.80, 40.95, 41.94, and 42.98 per cent respectively. For the week under review, SPI was recorded at 241.29 points against 234.77 points registered last week and 170.47 points recorded during the week ended February 24, 2022.
