Tag: trade balance

Pakistan records current account deficit of nearly $270 million

In the latest economic update, Pakistan has reported a current account deficit of $269 million for the month of February, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

This shift is attributed to a notable decrease in exports coupled with a surge in imports.

The data reveals that total exports experienced a 4.40 per cent month-on-month (MoM) decline, amounting to $3.37 billion in February, compared to $3.53 billion in the preceding month.

However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, exports displayed positive growth, rising by 15.84 per cent from $2.91 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year.

Conversely, total imports registered an 11.01 per cent MoM increase and a 21.33 per cent YoY surge, reaching $5.51 billion in February. This compares to $4.96 billion in December and $4.54 billion in January of the previous year.

On a cumulative basis, the current account deficit for the first seven months of fiscal year 2023-24 (7MFY24) stands at $1.09 billion, showcasing a significant 71.21 per cent YoY improvement compared to the $3.8 billion deficit recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Meanwhile, workers’ remittances for January saw a marginal 0.63 per cent MoM increase, reaching $2.4 billion, compared to $2.38 billion in the previous month.

On a YoY basis, remittances experienced a substantial rise of 26.16 per cent, standing at $1.9 billion in January 2024.

Looking at the cumulative figures for 7MFY24, workers’ remittances amounted to $15.83 billion, reflecting a 2.97 per cent YoY decrease from $16.32 billion in 7MFY23.

February 20, 2024
Pakistan’s exports surpass Rs4,300 billion, up by 35.33% in six months

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has reported a substantial increase of 35.33 per cent in the country’s exports in rupee terms during the first half of the current fiscal year, as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

According to provisional data released by PBS, exports from July to December 2023 amounted to Rs4,300,752 million, a significant rise from Rs3,177,893 million recorded during the same period last year.

On a year-on-year basis, exports for December 2023 witnessed a remarkable surge of 54.59 per cent, reaching Rs799,588 million, compared to Rs517,240 million in October 2022.

Additionally, on a month-on-month basis, exports increased by 8.86 per cent when compared to the figure of Rs734,541 million reported in November 2023.

The key commodities contributing to this growth in December 2023 were rice other than basmati (Rs124,040 million), knitwear (Rs103,898 million), readymade garments (Rs84,569 million), bedwear (Rs64,119 million), cotton cloth (Rs40,678 million), cotton yarn (Rs26,984 million), towels (Rs24,814 million), rice basmati (Rs22,888 million), articles excluding towels and bedwear (Rs16,991 million), and meat and meat preparations (Rs12,472 million).

In contrast, imports during July–December 2023–24 amounted to Rs7,533,700 million, showing an increase of 8.20 per cent compared to Rs6,962,865 million during the corresponding period last year.

On a year-on-year basis, December 2023 imports totaled Rs1,317,463 million, reflecting a 13.94 per cent increase from December 2022. Moreover, on a month-on-month basis, imports increased by 1.66 per cent in December 2023 compared to Rs1,295,968 million in November 2023.

The main commodities of imports during December 2023 were petroleum crude (Rs158,260 million), petroleum products (Rs150,888 million), natural gas, liquified (Rs109,516 million), electric machinery & apparatus (Rs63,667 million), palm oil (Rs60,316 million), plastic materials (Rs52,218 million), mobile phones (Rs49,887 million), iron & steel (Rs41,654 million), iron and steel scrap (Rs30,426 million), and motor cars (Rs29,543 million).

This surge in exports, coupled with a measured rise in imports, signifies a positive trend in Pakistan’s trade balance, reflecting the resilience and competitiveness of the country’s export sector.

January 23, 2024
Pakistan records $397 million current account surplus as exports, remittances increase

In December 2023, Pakistan’s current account exhibited a noteworthy surplus of $397 million, a stark departure from the $15 million deficit recorded in November, as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday.

This surplus is attributed to heightened exports and remittances, coupled with a marginal decline in imports. Notably, there was a substantial improvement compared to the $365 million deficit posted in December 2022.

According to SBP data, exports (goods and services) surged to $3.526 billion in December 2023, marking a 14 per cent increase from $3.089 billion in December 2022. Concurrently, remittances rose to $2.38 billion, a 13 per cent marginal increase from the same period last year.

Conversely, total imports saw a 2 per cent decrease, totaling $4.97 billion in December 2023, compared to $4.98 billion in the corresponding period last year.

In the cumulative period of July–December FY24, Pakistan experienced a current account deficit of $831 million, a substantial reduction from the $3.63 billion deficit recorded during the same months in FY23—a remarkable decline of over $2.8 billion, or 77 per cent.

The SBP, in its recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting on December 12, highlighted a significant improvement in the current account balance, with the deficit narrowing by 65.9 per cent year-on-year to $1.1 billion during July-October FY24.

The current account’s pivotal role is underscored by its impact on Pakistan’s economy, which is heavily reliant on imports.

A widening deficit exerts pressure on the exchange rate and depletes official foreign exchange reserves, making these recent developments crucial for the nation’s economic outlook.

January 17, 2024
Pakistan’s exports to China surge to $1223.5 million

In a noteworthy development, Pakistan’s export of goods and services to China experienced a substantial increase of 39.44 per cent during the initial five months of the current fiscal year (2023–24), as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

According to the latest SBP data, the overall exports to China reached $1223.532 million from July to November (2023–24), marking a significant rise compared to the $877.444 million recorded during the same period last fiscal year.

On a year-to-year basis, the exports to China showed a remarkable growth of 36.29 per cent, rising from $199.058 million in November 2022 to $271.316 million in November 2023.

However, on a month-on-month basis, there was a slight decline in exports to China during November 2023, registering a decrease of 14.90 per cent compared to the exports of $318.842 million in October 2023, as per the SBP data.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s overall exports to other countries exhibited a commendable increase of 4.99 per cent in the first five months, surging from US $11.915 billion to US $12.510 billion, according to the SBP data.

In contrast, the imports from China into Pakistan during the reviewed months amounted to US $4741.099 million, reflecting a decline of 6.03 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year (2022–23).

On a year-on-year basis, imports from China saw a notable increase of 10.71 per cent, rising from US $906.128 million in November 2022 to US $1003.248 million in November 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the imports from China recorded a marginal uptick of 0.99 per cent in November 2023 compared to the imports of US $993.401 million in October 2023, according to the data.

The overall imports into Pakistan witnessed a significant decrease of 16.02 per cent, declining from $25.341 billion to US $21.281 billion, as reported by the data.

January 3, 2024
Pakistan’s current account records first surplus since June 2023

In a noteworthy turnaround, Pakistan’s current account, after four consecutive months of deficits, revealed a surplus of $9 million in November 2023.

This marks a stark contrast to the $157 million deficit recorded in the same month the previous year, as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday.

This surplus, the first since June 2023, is significantly lower in volume compared to its standing at $520 million.

Analysts attribute this surplus to a substantial rise in the country’s exports and remittances, coupled with a marginal decline in imports. Worth noting is the previous month’s current account deficit of $184 million in October 2023.

According to SBP data, November 2023 witnessed a 12 per cent surge in the country’s exports (goods and services) to $3.364 billion, compared to $2.999 billion in November 2022.

Simultaneously, remittances reached $2.25 billion, reflecting a 4 per cent increase from the same month last year. Conversely, total imports saw a nearly 6 per cent reduction to $5.29 billion in November 2023, down from $5.01 billion the previous year.

SBP reports a significant improvement, with Pakistan’s current account deficit for July-November of FY24 standing at $1.16 billion, a remarkable 64 per cent decrease from the $3.3 billion deficit in the same period of the previous fiscal year (FY23).

During its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting on December 12, the SBP highlighted a notable enhancement in the current account balance, with the deficit narrowing by 65.9 per cent year-on-year to $1.1 billion during Jul-Oct FY24.

This shift is crucial for economically challenged Pakistan, heavily reliant on imports, as a widening deficit exerts pressure on the exchange rate and depletes official foreign exchange reserves, currently standing at slightly over $7 billion according to the latest data.

December 18, 2023
Positive change: Pakistan’s current account deficit shrinks to only $8 million

In September, Pakistan’s current account revealed a modest deficit of $8 million, as reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Current Account Deficit (CAD) fell to $8 million in September 2023 compared to a deficit of $164 million in August 2023, and thus CAD improved by $156 million.https://t.co/q3LNv3HOB0 https://t.co/Od8ikVvXrd #SBPBOP pic.twitter.com/DGXEyF6C37

— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) October 19, 2023

This marks a notable improvement from the $950 million deficit observed in July 2023, and a significant reduction compared to the $360 million deficit recorded in September of the previous year.

To provide additional context, in July of this year, Pakistan faced a more substantial current account deficit of $809 million, the highest since October 2022, according to SBP data.

This figure, while lower than the $1.26 billion deficit in July 2022, sharply contrasts with June 2023 when the country enjoyed a surplus of $500 million in its current account.

In terms of trade, central bank data shows that Pakistan’s exports of goods and services dipped to $2.654 billion in July 2023, down from $2.743 billion in July 2022.

Concurrently, total imports for July 2023 amounted to $5.03 billion, a decrease from the $6.07 billion recorded in the same period the previous year. In July of the preceding year, the trade balance in services registered a deficit of $32 million.

Furthermore, there was a noticeable decline in worker remittances, with a year-on-year drop of 19.28 per cent. On a monthly basis, remittances decreased by 7.32 per cent to $2.027 billion.

October 20, 2023
Pakistan’s imports drop sharply, leading to 42% reduction in trade deficit

Pakistan’s trade deficit for the first three months of the fiscal year 2023–24 has notably contracted by 42.25 per cent to reach $5.29 billion. This remarkable reduction is primarily attributed to a significant decrease in imports, a direct consequence of carefully administered measures.

Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reveals that the trade balance, which represents the difference between exports and imports, stood at a deficit of $5.29 billion for the period spanning July to September 2023–24. This is in stark contrast to the $9.16 billion deficit recorded during the same period in the preceding year.

Both exports and imports experienced declines in this timeframe, with imports showing a more substantial decrease compared to exports, effectively narrowing the trade deficit. During these three months of 2023–24, Pakistan’s exports contracted by 3.8 per cent to $6.9 billion, despite facing significant currency depreciation when compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

Conversely, imports registered a notable decline of 25.4 per cent, totaling $12.19 billion in the July–September period, down from the $16.33 billion recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

For a more granular view, the PBS reported that in September 2023, Pakistan’s trade deficit further shrank by nearly 48 per cent to $1.489 billion, compared to $2.856 billion during the same month in the previous year.

Exports experienced a slight improvement of 1.1 per cent, reaching $2.47 billion in September 2023 compared to $2.44 billion in the same month the previous year, while imports significantly decreased by 25.5 per cent to $3.95 billion from $5.29 billion in the corresponding month last year.

From a monthly perspective, the trade deficit contracted by 31.5 per cent compared to August 2023, with exports increasing by 4.2 per cent to $2.47 billion in September from $2.37 billion in the preceding month of August. Simultaneously, imports decreased by 12.9 per cent, amounting to $3.95 billion from $4.53 billion in the last month.

October 3, 2023
Rice exports from Pakistan decline by 17.33% in first two months of current fiscal year

During the initial two months of the current fiscal year, a total of 340,237 metric tonnes of rice, with a market value of $233.991 million, were exported. This marked a notable contrast with the previous year’s corresponding period, which recorded exports of 507,144 metric tonnes of rice valued at $283.056 million.

According to data provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, rice exports from July to August 2023 witnessed a 17.33 per cent decline in comparison to the same period in the previous year.

However, within this timeframe, Basmati rice exports experienced 8.29 per cent growth. Approximately 79,257 metric tonnes of Basmati rice, valued at $94.733 million, were exported, compared to the previous year’s figures of 84,709 metric tonnes at a cost of $87.480 million.

Concurrently, the nation achieved earnings of $39.338 million by exporting approximately 20,539 metric tonnes of fish and fish preparations, showing an improvement from the previous year when 15,922 metric tonnes of these products were exported, amounting to $38.086 million.

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It is noteworthy that overall food group exports in the first two months of the current fiscal year registered a modest decrease of 1.65 per cent. The total value of food commodities exported during this period amounted to $711.748 million, contrasting with the previous year’s export value of $723.696 million for the same duration.

On the other hand, food group imports into the country during the initial two months of the current fiscal year witnessed a substantial decline of 26.91 per cent when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. From July to August 2023, food imports decreased from $1.783 billion to $1.303 billion.

September 20, 2023
SBP-held forex reserves rise by $12 million to $8.05 billion, sufficient to cover over two months’ worth of imports

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced a rise of $12 million in its foreign exchange reserves, reaching $8.05 billion, as detailed in a statement released on Thursday. The nation’s overall liquid foreign reserves, encompassing both SBP and commercial banks, amounted to $13.379 billion as of August 11. Among these, commercial banks held net reserves totaling $5.3237 billion, as reported by the SBP.

While the central bank did not provide specifics on the cause behind the augmentation of foreign exchange reserves, the situation presents an upbeat stance. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the existing reserves would barely cover imports for a span slightly exceeding two months.

Notably, the previous month saw a notable escalation in SBP reserves due to inflows from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the formalisation of a $3 billion Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the global financial institution.

According to Geo, in a departure from market predictions, the SBP opted to maintain the key policy rate at 22 per cent during the preceding month. This stance diverged from expectations, particularly those guided by IMF recommendations. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed conveyed this decision following a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Explaining the rationale, he stated that given the decline in inflation, there was no inclination to increase the interest rate.

During a press conference, Governor Ahmed also shared insights into the nation’s economic trajectory. He projected a growth rate ranging from 2 per cent to 3 per cent for the upcoming year. Highlighting the government’s actions, he mentioned the complete removal of import restrictions. This move, coupled with financial inflows from the IMF and other supportive nations, led to a $4.2 billion upswing in Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves in July.

August 18, 2023