Tag: Urban Unit

  • The Sher I knew

    The Sher I knew

    “Rest in peace Khalid Sherdil. You are loved beyond measure, and we will miss you terribly.”

    They say things happen for a reason. There wasn’t a reason why on Friday, May 22, I felt the need to check if Khalid had reached Karachi. Strange that my phone buzzed in my hand the exact moment I wanted to check his whereabouts. I had received a text message from a friend that something was not quite right; Khalid’s plane had bumped on the runaway a few times and taken off again. In those few moments, I knew something was wrong.

    Moments later, flight PK-8303 crashed. My first thought: this is not happening. The plane was too close to the runway. Khalid will be okay. He had to be okay. You can’t joke with a person the night before their flight and not have them be alright. It didn’t work that way.

    Khalid at Altit Fort in Hunza in October 2019.

    The day worked its way, getting ready to deliver the knockout punch that Khalid was gone. People gathered, wept and stayed with us. I remember the quiet, the horrid gut-wrenching silence when people run out of words.

    Strangely no one from Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) ever came. Everyone who was anyone in the bureaucratic machinery reached out to help us, to somehow get Khalid’s body back to us. For days we didn’t even know if there was a body. Would we get one back? If we did, would it be Khalid’s? Worst still, what if someone had mistakenly claimed his body? These questions, nauseatingly real and unimaginable, simultaneously ate through my family.

    “Khalid was all around us and yet I knew that the Almighty had played His final hand and he was gone. We were awash with grief, the kind that gnaws inside bones and never leaves.”

    For days we didn’t have Khalid’s body and yet we had so much of him around us. I sat every day in his room, looking at the feature stone wall which he had put up with so much love. He had sent photos of the tiles to everyone in the family to see if we approved. Outside his giant, floor to ceiling window lay the sprawling lawn where he played endless hours of soccer with my children. If it wasn’t soccer, it would be chess or games that Khalid invented with their own hilarious rules. Even the house cat had some role to play in his playtime with the children. I was waiting for the moment that Khalid would walk in, chapstick in hand and start some silly game.

    Khalid was in a hurry to get someplace all the time. He had boundless energy and the soul of an adventurer. He loved his bold and beautiful belts, his colourful sunglasses and chocolate. I’ve never met a kinder soul than his, his smile always saying more than his words. Khalid was kind, magnanimous, spirited and gentle beyond belief. He helped others without ever thinking about it. Khalid even helped me find a new home for my dog because he knew I just couldn’t give it away to anybody. You’d never think a man in that dark suit would know how to love so much.

    Khalid at Khunjerab National Park in October 2019.

    Khalid was all around us and yet I knew that the Almighty had played His final hand and he was gone. We were awash with grief, the kind that gnaws inside bones and never leaves.

    Grief, as it so happens, at least according to the Kubler-Ross Cycle, has five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Thanks to PIA, which incidentally offered no assistance to locate Khalid’s body or help in the least in any humane way, my husband’s grief cycle jumped straight to acceptance. There was no room for denial or anger as he got down to the business of getting his brother home.

    “I can only hope for the best but somehow I’m reminded of a famous quote at the conclusion of The Shawshank Redemption, where Andy Dufresne says to his friend, ‘Remember, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.’”

    It wasn’t easy. Four days later, Khalid’s DNA matched and he was on his way home. PIA was still absent, behaving like a child who throws away a toy after it’s broken.

    As an on-again-off-again writer, I like to get to the bottom of things. I wanted to distill all the information in my wrecked brain and re-create what happened that day. PIA didn’t even bother to have a press briefing as to what may have happened to flight PK-8303. A grieving mind will settle for any information that provides closure. I watched video after video on YouTube to make sense of what might have happened. And still, silence from the airline that could make sense of it all.

    Adventurous, determined and committed to helping humanity.

    They say the smallest coffins are the heaviest. After receiving Khalid’s coffin draped in our national flag, it could not have been heavier. Khalid loved wearing the Pakistani national flag lapel pin on his suit collar, and as fate would have it, he was buried with our flag. Khalid was a true patriot and he loved his country. His friends, fellow Pakistan Administrative Service (PAS) officers and family helped bring him home. An airline bearing our national flag perished with 97 souls on board and all the PIA could offer was a compensation cheque after everything was done. Keep your money PIA; don’t use it as a means to absolve yourself of guilt.

    As days pass by, my friends and family offer words of comfort. I can only hope for the best but somehow I’m reminded of a famous quote at the conclusion of The Shawshank Redemption, where Andy Dufresne says to his friend, “Remember, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.” Something pure and good died on flight PK-8303.

    Rest in peace Khalid Sherdil. You are loved beyond measure, and we will miss you terribly.

  • COVID-19 & industry: Current situation and the way forward

    In the previous two years, Pakistan had started to pick its pace at a slightly high point and the economy had started to improve.  Both the current account along with the non-oil current account had continued to improve after exchange rate reforms while sectors with the highest forward linkages i.e cement, iron and steel, had started to show an upward spike in production.

    The fiscal side also seemed to strengthen over a period of time while growth in revenue collections at all levels, especially direct taxes, was also witnessed.

    However, with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic raising its ugly head, the meager growth achieved is now threatened.

    According to a World Bank (WB) assessment, the global impact of COVID-19 can reach $347 billion (0.4 per cent of Global GDP). Nearly all regions suffer a double-digit decline in trade volumes in 2020, with exports from North America and Asia hitting the hardest. But it is important to note that this hit was majorly experienced by countries with sizable exports due to trade problems while Pakistan has a low global value chains (GVC) exposure to the world, especially to People’s Republic of China (PRC), which means it has suffered lesser trade disruptions so far.

    Trades have fallen steeper in sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics and automotive products.

    According to Urban Unit’s spatial industrial data, currently, 18 per cent of the industries in Pakistan are operational. These include the fertilizer industry, agriculture, agriculture spare parts and export industry, all of which are operating under conditions of following certain standard operating procedures (SOPs) developed by the Punjab government. However, strict monitoring from the government will also be required as an exemplary practice of these SOPs which will further encourage the authorities to open up other capital-intensive sectors.

    On the monetary side, there are several efforts made by the government. Under a federal package, a Rs100 billion relief package has been provided to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the agriculture sector along with concessional loans. Money is allocated to lower the input cost for farmers along with a Rs12,000 monthly package with facilities of panagahs [shelter homes] and langar centers [soup kitchens].

    The Punjab government has also implemented tax reductions as all forms of GST have been removed from online platforms, businesses and services related to HR; deferment of tax has been implied for properties and CVT & stamp duties have been reduced to 2 per cent on property transactions, construction industries, hospitals and medical consultants. In addition to these, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has provided relaxation in export schemes (EFS & LTFF) and has enhanced liquidity for exporters while providing extensions in the time period to ship and import goods against advance payment.

    The central bank has also reduced its interest rate from 13.5 per cent to 9 per cent.

    However, there are some further actions that the government can take in order to improve the current economic situation. A regulatory framework can be adopted keeping in view some of the best international practices from where many risk management practices can be learnt to determine the best price discovery (for example, the United States has dropped the interest rate to 0 per cent).

    Secondly, allowing ease of entry for institutional capital in order to broaden the depth of the market i.e. attracting FDIs in newly established special economic zones in Faisalabad, Bhalwal, Vehari and Rahim Yar Khan by simplifying provincial and federal procedures. Thirdly, the role of aggregators, producers and organisations can be improved for better price negotiations for SME’s.

    Fourth, access to foreign capital should be made easier and distortions should be minimised by developing linkages with the international markets. That means ease of doing business index, logistic performance index and reduced lead time for exports should be commenced. Lastly, e-markets should be developed where participants can access both international and domestic markets. An e-commerce policy at the provincial level must be put in place with incentives to increase documentation of economy and online trade at B2B B2C and C2C levels.

    It is to be noted that Pakistan is not alone in this economic downfall. It is vital to have a positive outlook on the situation and prepare for the future with better resilience. Effective policies and active preparedness can give impetus to the post-pandemic industrial revival.

  • Resting the food panic amid COVID-19

    Resting the food panic amid COVID-19

    The global coronavirus pandemic has resulted in either a partial or full closure of most industries, wreaking havoc on the country’s economy. Though food scarcity is not a problem yet, during Ramzan, the closures can spell misery for people despite the government’s assurance of consistent supply. In order to simmer down the current food panic and hoarding of goods, it is to be ensured that the production and availability of essential goods are not halted by the arrival of COVID-19 in Pakistan.

    There are two sources of concern in this situation.

    First, despite growth in livestock, which contributes to almost 2/3 of the agricultural output in Pakistan and accelerated slightly to 4.0% in fiscal year (FY) 2019; agricultural production as a whole expanded by only 0.8%. Second, with COVID-19 escalating, Pakistan has recently suspended its trade and closed its borders, leaving many distressed and worrying about the shortage of essential Iftar items.

    In order to address the first concern, it is imperative to note that an overall decline in all sectors was already being witnessed before COVID-19. The slowdown in the agriculture industry was exacerbated by weaker demand and higher costs until the disease arrived. As for the shortage of essentials food items, Punjab alone is a mass producer of many food essentials that will be easily available during Ramzan. An analysis by the Urban Unit states the availability of most essential items from April to June 2020:

    • Tomatoes: Punjab’s production was recorded 1,38,397 tons during 2018-19
    • Potatoes: Punjab has 96.94% share in the total domestic production of potato and the total arrival in local wholesale markets was recorded at 510 to 515 trucks/day on an average
    • Garlic: Domestic production was recorded at 72,598 tons in 2018/2019.
    • Chilies: Production of chilies in Punjab is 11,698 tons
    • Onions: 20% in total domestic production
    • In addition to these, all forms of meat and dairy will be available as 3.7 million litres of milk are supplied per day and the daily supply of beef and mutton is 518,861 tonnes and 130,000 tonnes per day, respectively.

    Under essential items, rice is the only commodity that is expected to suffer a blow by the pandemic, but it is harvested in September. All vegetables and fruits such as capsicum, cabbage, cauliflower, bittergourd, cucumber, turnip, guava, melons and strawberries will be available in an abundant amount.

    While no serious panic has been witnessed in consumer behavior in Pakistan unlike in Europe or the United States (US), the government must exercise extreme vigilance on supply-demand trends during Ramzan. There should be no hoarding, and a robust price control mechanism must be put in place at the grass-root level by respective provincial and district administrations.

    For example, the Food Department of the Punjab government has taken effective and strict measures and warned of a crackdown on unnecessary stock holdings.

    So far, collective efforts by the Food Department along with the Deputy Commissioner’s Office and the Industries Department have led to the collection of fines worth Rs2,883.71 million from accumulators of food items, out of which Rs882.03 million was collected within just 40 days i.e. from March 1 to April 9.

    In an attempt to reduce the current wheat prices, the department is further identifying and disqualifying ghost mills from the official quota and borders are also being sealed, barring wheat transportation outside the province and ensuring food security.