Tag: US economy

  • IMF predicts modest 3.5% growth for Pakistan amid global economic uncertainty

    IMF predicts modest 3.5% growth for Pakistan amid global economic uncertainty

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a 3.5 per cent growth rate for Pakistan’s economy in the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), slightly below the government’s target of 3.6 per cent.

    This comes after Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.4 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24, missing the government’s target of 3.5 per cent.

    Pakistan’s economic challenges are compounded by chronic mismanagement, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions, and severe flooding in 2022.

    The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) update warns of modest global growth over the next two years, influenced by cooling activity in the US, stabilization in Europe, and stronger consumption and exports from China, but significant risks remain.

    Globally, the IMF has maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.2 per cent and slightly increased its 2025 forecast to 3.3 per cent. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has expressed concern over these tepid growth rates. The US growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 2.6 per cent, reflecting slower consumption, while the 2025 forecast remains at 1.9 per cent due to a cooling labor market and moderated spending.

    The IMF has raised China’s 2024 growth forecast to 5.0 per cent, reflecting a rebound in private consumption and strong exports, but recent data showing lower-than-expected GDP growth poses a downside risk.

    The IMF also highlighted persistent risks to inflation due to high services prices and wage growth in labor-intensive sectors, alongside potential trade and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate price pressures. Additionally, the IMF warned of the impact of economic policy shifts from upcoming elections, which could lead to increased protectionism and fiscal irresponsibility.

    The IMF advised policymakers to restore price stability, gradually ease monetary policy, rebuild fiscal buffers, and implement policies to promote trade and productivity growth.

  • US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady for sixth consecutive meeting

    US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady for sixth consecutive meeting

    The US Federal Reserve has once again left interest rates unchanged, maintaining its current rate at 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

    This marks the sixth consecutive meeting where the central bank has opted to hold steady, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent inflation concerns.

    In a statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, the central bank acknowledged that while inflation has eased over the past year, it remains elevated.

    “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress towards the Committee’s 2 per cent inflation objective,” the FOMC noted.

    The Committee indicated that it does not plan to reduce the target range until it has greater confidence that inflation is consistently trending towards the 2 per cent goal.

    This stance has kept interest rates at a 23-year high since July last year, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s focus on managing inflation risks.

    The decision to leave rates unchanged aligned with market expectations, which had largely anticipated a rate pause.

    In a related development, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow its pace of quantitative tightening starting June 1.

    The Fed will reduce the cap on Treasury securities rolling off its balance sheet to $25 billion per month, down from the previous cap of $60 billion. However, the pace of runoff for mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion per month.

    The FOMC’s decision did not significantly alter market expectations for the trajectory of interest rates in 2024.

    The market remains divided on whether a rate cut will occur by September, with about 50/50 odds. As of now, only one rate cut is fully priced in for the entire year.

    It’s worth noting that at the beginning of 2024, the market had priced in an 80 per cent chance of a rate cut starting in March, with a total of six cuts projected throughout the year.

    This shift in expectations underscores the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions as it navigates the ongoing challenges of inflation and economic stability.

  • US sees strongest job growth in eight months, raising rate hike possibility

    US sees strongest job growth in eight months, raising rate hike possibility

    In September, the United States experienced a significant increase in employment, marking the most substantial growth in eight months. 

    This surge in hiring was widespread, indicating a persistent strength in the labour market. This development potentially provides the Federal Reserve with the rationale to consider raising interest rates once again, although it’s worth noting that wage growth is currently decelerating.

    The Labour Department’s latest employment report, released on Friday, revealed a nonfarm payroll increase that surpassed expectations, along with substantial upward revisions to job counts for July and August. These findings solidify the belief that economic activity gained momentum in the third quarter.

    The continued resilience of the labour market and the broader economy, even after 18 months of the US central bank’s efforts to temper demand by raising rates, suggests that monetary policy may remain restrictive for an extended period. 

    Recent data also indicates an increase in job openings in August, coupled with consistently low first-time applications for state unemployment benefits in September.