Tag: weekly spi

  • Pakistan’s headline inflation expected to drop below 14%

    Pakistan’s headline inflation expected to drop below 14%

    Inflation in Pakistan is projected to decelerate significantly in May 2024, with the year-on-year (YoY) rate expected to drop to approximately 13.9 per cent. This sharp slowdown is attributed to a notable decline in monthly prices, aided by a favorable base effect.

    Monthly inflation is forecasted to decrease by 1.4 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of decline. This figure is significantly lower than the average monthly increase of 1.35 per cent observed over the past 12 months.

    As a result, the average yearly inflation for the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024 (11MFY24) is anticipated to be 25.1 per cent YoY, compared to 29 per cent YoY in the same period of the previous fiscal year (FY23).

    The primary driver behind the decline in monthly inflation is a substantial 440 basis points (bps) drop in the Food Index. This reduction is mainly due to lower prices of essential food items such as onions, tomatoes, chicken, and wheat. Additionally, the Transport Index is expected to decrease due to falling fuel prices.

    Looking ahead, if consumer prices increase by an average of 0.5 per cent per month, the annual inflation rate is projected to decline to about 7.4 per cent by the end of December 2024. With a 1 per cent monthly increase, the annual inflation rate would fall to approximately 11.7 per cent.

    If the monthly increase matches the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent, the annual inflation rate will stand at 14.8 per cent by December 2024.

    The following chart outlines the projected yearly inflation trajectory based on monthly inflation rates of 0.5 per cent, 1 per cent, and the last 12-month average of 1.35 per cent.

  • Weekly inflation falls by 1%, but year-on-year rates remain high

    Weekly inflation falls by 1%, but year-on-year rates remain high

    The weekly inflation measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded a decrease of 1 per cent for the combined consumption groups during the week ended on May 02, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    This marks a significant shift as inflation pressures ease for the first time in weeks. The SPI for the current week stands at 316.95 points, down from the previous week’s 320.14 points.

    However, compared to the corresponding week of the previous year, the SPI is up by 24.37 per cent, reflecting the ongoing inflationary trend across various sectors.

    The SPI, calculated with a base year of 2015-16, encompasses 17 urban centers and 51 essential items across all expenditure groups. The index serves as a critical barometer of inflationary trends in Pakistan.

    For the lowest consumption group, earning up to Rs17,732, the SPI decreased by 1.09 per cent, settling at 306.26 points, down from last week’s 309.64 points.

    Similarly, the SPI for consumption groups in the ranges Rs17,732-22,888, Rs22,889-29,517, Rs29,518-44,175, and above Rs44,175 saw decreases of 1.12 per cent, 1.02 per cent, 1.04 per cent, and 0.95 per cent, respectively.

    This broad-based decline indicates a general easing of inflationary pressures across different income groups.

    Price variations across essential items

    Out of the 51 items evaluated by the SPI, the prices of 18 items decreased, 15 increased, and 18 remained stable during the week.

    Items showing decreased prices

    Key items that recorded a notable decrease in their average prices on a week-on-week basis include:

    – Tomatoes: 22.05 per cent decrease

    – Chicken: 8.03 per cent decrease

    – Onions: 7.71 per cent decrease

    – Wheat flour: 6.88 per cent decrease

    – Bananas: 5.25 per cent decrease

    – Diesel: 2.89 per cent decrease

    Items with increased prices

    In contrast, some items saw a rise in their prices. These include:

    – Potatoes: 6.06 per cent increase

    – Salt powder: 0.91 per cent increase

    – Garlic: 0.85 per cent increase

    – Powdered milk: 0.70 per cent increase

    Year-on-year trends

    While the week-on-week numbers showed a decline, the year-on-year comparison paints a more complex picture.

    Certain commodities experienced significant increases over the past year. Notable among them are:

    – Gas charges for Q1: 570 per cent increase

    – Onions: 145.15 per cent increase

    – Tomatoes: 79.43 per cent increase

    – Garlic: 72.46 per cent increase

    – Chilies powder: 71.96 per cent increase

    However, some items witnessed a decrease in average prices over the year, including:

    – Bananas: 37.76 per cent decrease

    – Wheat flour: 23.15 per cent decrease

    – Cooking oil (5 litre): 20.45 per cent decrease

    These figures suggest a dynamic landscape of price fluctuations, with some areas showing improvement while others continue to face inflationary pressures.

    The decrease in SPI for the current week offers a brief respite from the upward inflation trend, but with significant year-on-year increases in many commodities, vigilance remains crucial.

  • Yearly basis: Weekly inflation stays above 34%

    Yearly basis: Weekly inflation stays above 34%

    In the week concluding on February 15, 2024, the Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group exhibited a slight decrease of 0.78 per cent week-over-week (WoW).

    However, compared to the same period last year, the SPI surged by 34.25 per cent YoY, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    The combined index, standing at 315.18, marked a slight dip from 317.65 recorded on February 8, 2024. A year ago, on February 16, 2023, the index was substantially lower at 234.77.

    Analysing the data further, out of the 51 items monitored, the average price of 22 items increased, 11 items witnessed a decrease, and 18 items remained stable.

    Notably, PBS did not release SPI data last week, following a 0.28 per cent WoW decline in the preceding week.

    During the week under review, significant decreases were noted in the prices of eggs (28.82 per cent), chicken (4.23 per cent), onions (3.48 per cent), LPG (2.85 per cent), and gur (1.13 per cent).

    Conversely, notable increases were observed in the prices of bananas (4.64 per cent), potatoes (2.80 per cent), match boxes (1.31 per cent), long cloth (1.29 per cent), and cooked daal (0.77 per cent).

    Analysing the SPI percentage change by income groups, a uniform decline of -0.82 per cent to -0.72 per cent was witnessed across all quantiles.

    The lowest-income group experienced a weekly decline of 0.78 per cent, while the highest-income group recorded a decrease of 0.77 per cent.

    On a yearly basis, SPI increased across all quantiles, ranging between 28.68 per cent and 38.54 per cent. The lowest-income group saw a 28.68 per cent increase, while the highest-income group recorded a 32.08 per cent rise.

    The average price of Sona urea fell to Rs4,513 per 50 kg bag, marking a 0.50 per cent decrease from last week and a significant 54.84 per cent increase from the previous year.

    Meanwhile, the average cement price recorded at Rs1,234 per 50 kg bag marked a 2.05 per cent increase from the previous week and a 14.27 per cent hike from the prices recorded last year.

    In a volatile market environment, these fluctuations in the SPI indicate the dynamic nature of the economic landscape, impacting consumers across various income groups.

  • Weekly inflation up by 4% due to sharp increase in electricity prices

    Weekly inflation up by 4% due to sharp increase in electricity prices

    Owing to a sharp increase in electricity prices, the sensitive pricing index (SPI), which measures weekly inflation, increased by more than 4 per cent.

    According to data released on Friday by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the SPI-based inflation rate increased 4.13 per cent from the previous week to the week ending October 27 while increasing 30.68 per cent from the same time last year.

    The cost of power, salt, rice, and other basic commodities went up on average during the previous week.

    According to Geo, there has been a decrease in the cost of 16 goods, including chicken, tomatoes, onions, and masoor pulses. In the meantime, the prices for 14 necessities remained the same.

    Electricity costs up by 89 per cent

    An increase from week to week is mostly caused by an 89 per cent increase in electricity costs.

    Recall that a negative Rs10 per unit adjustment to fuel prices was implemented in September. The government opted to postpone the Rs. 10 per unit adjustment for the June fuel price, but it had already been accounted for in the inflation figures for August, therefore it was corrected for in the September inflation figures.

    Inflation is expected to be 25.7 per cent in October, up from 23.2 per cent in September, according to the brokerage.

    In the week under examination, the combined income group index increased from 205.27 points for the week that concluded on October 20 to 213.74 points.

    In comparison to the prior week, the SPI for the income bracket with the lowest income rose by 4.64 per cent. The group’s index was 220.56 points, up from 210.78 points the previous week.

    Increase in prices

    Prices of the following items increased:

    Food items

    Salt powdered: 2.57 per cent

    Tea Lipton: 1.89 per cent

    Rice: 1.24 per cent

    Garlic: 1.04 per cent

    Non-food items

    Electricity charges for Q1: 89.34 per cent

    Energy saver: 1.57 per cent

    Reduction in prices

    Prices of the following items decreased:

    Food items

    Tomatoes: -3.77 per cent

    Onions: -2.97 per cent

    Pulse Masoor: -2.50 per cent

    Chicken: -1.86 per cent

    Pulse Gram: -1.35 per cent

    Gur: -1.09 per cent

    Non-food items

    LPG: -0.72 per cent