Tag: year-on-year

  • December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    December inflation may surpass 30% due to gas price hike

    In December, inflation is expected to surpass the 30 per cent threshold, driven by the recent increase in gas prices and the persisting adverse base effect, which continues to impact the consumer price index (CPI).

    The headline inflation for December is projected to settle at approximately 30.11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 1.18 per cent month-on-month (MoM), in contrast to the previous month’s figures of 29.2 per cent YoY and 2.7 per cent MoM.

    This monthly inflation rate is significantly lower than the 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM.

    Consequently, the average yearly inflation for the first six months of FY24 is estimated to be 28.87 per cent YoY, compared to 25.05 per cent YoY in the same period of FY23.

    The surge in inflation can be attributed to the adverse base effect and the notable increase in gas prices, which were not fully realised in the previous month.

    Conversely, food inflation is expected to exhibit a marginal decrease of 0.29 per cent MoM, driven primarily by the decline in prices of tomatoes, potatoes, chicken, and oil.

    Additionally, the transport index is forecast to undergo a 4 per cent MoM decrease, mainly due to the relief in petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices.

    Post-December, inflation is anticipated to decline at a relatively faster pace, supported by the favorable base effect, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and other administrative measures.

    The December spike is attributed to the lingering effects of the overdue gas price hike. Notably, unforeseen climate events, volatility in global commodity prices, especially oil, and external account pressures pose significant upside risks to the inflation outlook.

    Global oil prices are on the rise amid challenges in Red Sea shipping, potentially threatening the inflation outlook.

    Moreover, the successful completion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, coupled with additional loan programmes, remains crucial.

    The outstanding amount of $1.8 billion under the stand-by arrangement (SBA) is yet to be released.

    The accompanying chart illustrates the yearly inflation trajectory based on different MoM CPI scenarios. At 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, yearly inflation is projected to fall below the 22 per cent policy rate by February–March 2024.

    By the end of FY24, with 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent MoM CPI, it is expected to decrease to 15.29 per cent and 19.37 per cent, respectively, a significant change from the previous month’s forecasts of 12.9 per cent and 17.5 per cent.

    Considering the last 12-month average of 2.17 per cent MoM, the real interest rate is anticipated to remain in negative territory by the end of FY24.

  • Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    Pakistan’s October inflation eases to 26.9%

    In October, Pakistan witnessed a year-on-year headline inflation rate of 26.9 per cent, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday.  

    This figure represents a notable decrease from the previous month’s reading of 31.4 per cent in September. Additionally, the month-on-month inflation rate for October showed a 1.1 per cent increase. 

    When considering the average inflation from July to October, it amounted to 28.48 per cent, a contrast to the 25.48 per cent recorded during the same period the previous year. 

    In its most recent ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, the Ministry of Finance projected that consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for October would fall within the range of 27 per cent to 29 per cent.  

    The ministry anticipated that inflation would exhibit a more contained trend compared to the elevated levels observed during the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. 

    The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics further distinguished between urban and rural inflation rates. In urban areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation increased to 25.5 per cent in October 2023, marking a decline from the 29.7 per cent observed in the previous month and the 24.6 per cent recorded in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation experienced a 1.1 per cent increase in October 2023, compared to a 1.7 per cent increase in the previous month and a 4.5 per cent increase in October 2022. 

    Similarly, in rural areas, the year-on-year CPI inflation rose to 28.9 per cent in October 2023, which represented a decrease from the 33.9 per cent recorded in the previous month and the 29.5 per cent in October 2022.  

    On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased by 1.1 per cent in October 2023, in contrast to a 2.5 per cent increase in the previous month and a 5.0 per cent increase in October 2022. 

  • Knitwear tops the list: Pakistan’s exports surge by 25.54%

    In the fiscal year 2023–24, Pakistan’s exports, denominated in rupees, experienced a notable 25.54 per cent increase during the first quarter (Q1) compared to the previous year, as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

    Between July and September 2023, exports amounted to Rs2,013,533 million, marking a 25.54 per cent boost from the same period in the previous year, according to PBS’s provisional data.

    Looking at year-on-year figures, September 2023’s exports surged by 31.27 per cent, totaling Rs737,295 million, compared to Rs561,643 million in September 2022.

    On a month-to-month basis, exports grew by 6.06 per cent, reaching Rs737,295 million in August 2023.

    Key export categories in August 2023 included knitwear (Rs103,029 million), readymade garments (Rs74,608 million), bed wear (Rs69,234 million), cotton cloth (Rs51,891 million), oil seeds, nuts, and kernels (Rs46,571 million), cotton yarn (Rs33,815 million), rice and others (Rs32,324 million), towels (Rs25,116 million), rice basmati (Rs19,008 million), and miscellaneous articles, excluding towels and bed wear (Rs16,922 million).

    On the other hand, imports during July to September 2023 (FY2023-24) totaled Rs3,560,763 million, showing a decrease of 2.45 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

    In a year-on-year comparison, imports into Pakistan during September 2023 amounted to Rs1,189,167 million, a 2.52 per cent decline from September 2022.

    Month-on-month data indicated a 10.62 per cent increase in imports in September 2023 compared to August 2023.

    Key imported commodities in September 2023 included petroleum products (Rs162,087 million), petroleum crude (Rs146,179 million), liquefied natural gas (Rs75,331 million), palm oil (Rs61,388 million), plastic materials (Rs49,628 million), electric machinery and apparatus (Rs44,699 million), iron and steel (Rs44,191 million), mobile phones (Rs37,093 million), iron and steel scrap (Rs27,299 million), and pulses/leguminous vegetables (Rs22,208 million).

  • Weekly inflation in Pakistan remains stubbornly high at 45.72%

    Weekly inflation in Pakistan remains stubbornly high at 45.72%

    Despite coming down marginally, weekly inflation remains above 45 per cent and stood at 45.72 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis for the week ended on 18th May 2023, showed data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PSB) on Friday.

    The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) based inflation for the week ended 11th May 2023, recorded a decrease of 0.16 per cent over the previous week due to a decrease in the prices of food and non-food items.

    The year-on-year trend posted an increase due to an increase in the prices of Cigarettes (138.50 per cent), Tea Lipton (114.93 per cent), Potatoes (114.69 per cent), Gas Charges for Q1 (108.38 per cent), Bananas (104.44 per cent), Gents Sponge Chappal (100.33 per cent), Wheat Flour (90.77 per cent), Rice Basmati Broken (86.30 per cent), Eggs (85.86 per cent), Rice Irri-6/9 (80.44 per cent), Petrol (79.85 per cent), Diesel (78.68 per cent), Pulse Moong (66.79 per cent), Bread (63.17 per cent), and Pulse Mash (57.06 per cent), while a decrease was observed in the prices of Tomatoes (38.30 per cent), Onions (30.18 per cent), and Chilies Powdered (6.48 per cent).

    A decrease was observed in the prices of food items: Onions (9.04 per cent), Garlic (1.76 per cent), Sugar (1.42 per cent), Wheat Flour (1.40 per cent), Vegetable Ghee 2.5kg (0.63 per cent), Mustard Oil (0.48 per cent), Pulse Masoor (0.40 per cent), Pulse Gram (0.12 per cent), and Vegetable Ghee 1kg (0.11 per cent); and non-food items: Diesel (10.38 per cent), Petrol (4.24 per cent), LPG (3.02 per cent), and Firewood (0.89 per cent).

    On the other hand, an increase was observed in the prices of Chicken (7.51 per cent), Tea Lipton (4.53 per cent), Gur (2.79 per cent), Eggs (2.29 per cent), Energy Saver (2.22 per cent), Tomatoes (2.11 per cent), Tea Prepared (1.09 per cent), and Curd (1.08 per cent).

    During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 23 (45.10 per cent) items increased, 13 (25.49 per cent) items decreased, and 15 (29.41 per cent) items remained stable.